• Title/Summary/Keyword: 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝

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Comparative Study of Data Preprocessing and ML&DL Model Combination for Daily Dam Inflow Prediction (댐 일유입량 예측을 위한 데이터 전처리와 머신러닝&딥러닝 모델 조합의 비교연구)

  • Youngsik Jo;Kwansue Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.358-358
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    • 2023
  • 본 연구에서는 그동안 수자원분야 강우유출 해석분야에 활용되었던 대표적인 머신러닝&딥러닝(ML&DL) 모델을 활용하여 모델의 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝뿐만 아니라 모델의 특성을 고려한 기상 및 수문데이터의 조합과 전처리(lag-time, 이동평균 등)를 통하여 데이터 특성과 ML&DL모델의 조합시나리오에 따른 일 유입량 예측성능을 비교 검토하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 소양강댐 유역을 대상으로 1974년에서 2021년까지 축적된 기상 및 수문데이터를 활용하여 1) 강우, 2) 유입량, 3) 기상자료를 주요 영향변수(독립변수)로 고려하고, 이에 a) 지체시간(lag-time), b) 이동평균, c) 유입량의 성분분리조건을 적용하여 총 36가지 시나리오 조합을 ML&DL의 입력자료로 활용하였다. ML&DL 모델은 1) Linear Regression(LR), 2) Lasso, 3) Ridge, 4) SVR(Support Vector Regression), 5) Random Forest(RF), 6) LGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Model), 7) XGBoost의 7가지 ML방법과 8) LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory models), 9) TCN(Temporal Convolutional Network), 10) LSTM-TCN의 3가지 DL 방법, 총 10가지 ML&DL모델을 비교 검토하여 일유입량 예측을 위한 가장 적합한 데이터 조합 특성과 ML&DL모델을 성능평가와 함께 제시하였다. 학습된 모형의 유입량 예측 결과를 비교·분석한 결과, 소양강댐 유역에서는 딥러닝 중에서는 TCN모형이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였고(TCN>TCN-LSTM>LSTM), 트리기반 머신러닝중에서는 Random Forest와 LGBM이 우수한 성능을 보였으며(RF, LGBM>XGB), SVR도 LGBM수준의 우수한 성능을 나타내었다. LR, Lasso, Ridge 세가지 Regression모형은 상대적으로 낮은 성능을 보였다. 또한 소양강댐 댐유입량 예측에 대하여 강우, 유입량, 기상계열을 36가지로 조합한 결과, 입력자료에 lag-time이 적용된 강우계열의 조합 분석에서 세가지 Regression모델을 제외한 모든 모형에서 NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) 0.8이상(최대 0.867)의 성능을 보였으며, lag-time이 적용된 강우와 유입량계열을 조합했을 경우 NSE 0.85이상(최대 0.901)의 더 우수한 성능을 보였다.

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Recurrent Neural Network Model for Predicting Tight Oil Productivity Using Type Curve Parameters for Each Cluster (군집 별 표준곡선 매개변수를 이용한 치밀오일 생산성 예측 순환신경망 모델)

  • Han, Dong-kwon;Kim, Min-soo;Kwon, Sun-il
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2021.10a
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    • pp.297-299
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    • 2021
  • Predicting future productivity of tight oil is an important task for analyzing residual oil recovery and reservoir behavior. In general, productivity prediction is made using the decline curve analysis(DCA). In this study, we intend to propose an effective model for predicting future production using deep learning-based recurrent neural networks(RNN), LSTM, and GRU algorithms. As input variables, the main parameters are oil, gas, water, which are calculated during the production of tight oil, and the type curve calculated through various cluster analyzes. the output variable is the monthly oil production. Existing empirical models, the DCA and RNN models, were compared, and an optimal model was derived through hyperparameter tuning to improve the predictive performance of the model.

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Enhancement of Buckling Characteristics for Composite Square Tube by Load Type Analysis (하중유형 분석을 통한 좌굴에 강한 복합재료 사각관 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Seokwoo Ham;Seungmin Ji;Seong S. Cheon
    • Composites Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2023
  • The PIC design method is assigning different stacking sequences for each shell element through the preliminary FE analysis. In previous study, machine learning was applied to the PIC design method in order to assign the region efficiently, and the training data is labeled by dividing each region into tension, compression, and shear through the preliminary FE analysis results value. However, since buckling is not considered, when buckling occurs, it can't be divided into appropriate loading type. In the present study, it was proposed PIC-NTL (PIC design using novel technique for analyzing load type) which is method for applying a novel technique for analyzing load type considering buckling to the conventional PIC design. The stress triaxiality for each ply were analyzed for buckling analysis, and the representative loading type was designated through the determined loading type within decision area divided into two regions of the same size in the thickness direction of the elements. The input value of the training data and label consisted in coordination of element and representative loading type of each decision area, respectively. A machine learning model was trained through the training data, and the hyperparameters that affect the performance of the machine learning model were tuned to optimal values through Bayesian algorithm. Among the tuned machine learning models, the SVM model showed the highest performance. Most effective stacking sequence were mapped into PIC tube based on trained SVM model. FE analysis results show the design method proposed in this study has superior external loading resistance and energy absorption compared to previous study.

Proposal of a Step-by-Step Optimized Campus Power Forecast Model using CNN-LSTM Deep Learning (CNN-LSTM 딥러닝 기반 캠퍼스 전력 예측 모델 최적화 단계 제시)

  • Kim, Yein;Lee, Seeun;Kwon, Youngsung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2020
  • A forecasting method using deep learning does not have consistent results due to the differences in the characteristics of the dataset, even though they have the same forecasting models and parameters. For example, the forecasting model X optimized with dataset A would not produce the optimized result with another dataset B. The forecasting model with the characteristics of the dataset needs to be optimized to increase the accuracy of the forecasting model. Therefore, this paper proposes novel optimization steps for outlier removal, dataset classification, and a CNN-LSTM-based hyperparameter tuning process to forecast the daily power usage of a university campus based on the hourly interval. The proposing model produces high forecasting accuracy with a 2% of MAPE with a single power input variable. The proposing model can be used in EMS to suggest improved strategies to users and consequently to improve the power efficiency.

Prediction of Uniaxial Compressive Strength of Rock using Shield TBM Machine Data and Machine Learning Technique (쉴드 TBM 기계 데이터 및 머신러닝 기법을 이용한 암석의 일축압축강도 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Hwan;Ko, Tae Young;Park, Yang Soo;Kim, Taek Kon;Lee, Dae Hyuk
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.214-225
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    • 2020
  • Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of rock is one of the important factors to determine the advance speed during shield TBM tunnel excavation. UCS can be obtained through the Geotechnical Data Report (GDR), and it is difficult to measure UCS for all tunneling alignment. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict UCS by utilizing TBM machine driving data and machine learning technique. Several machine learning techniques were compared to predict UCS, and it was confirmed the stacking model has the most successful prediction performance. TBM machine data and UCS used in the analysis were obtained from the excavation of rock strata with slurry shield TBMs. The data were divided into 8:2 for training and test and pre-processed including feature selection, scaling, and outlier removal. After completing the hyper-parameter tuning, the stacking model was evaluated with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the determination coefficient (R2), and it was found to be 5.556 and 0.943, respectively. Based on the results, the sacking models are considered useful in predicting rock strength with TBM excavation data.

Load Fidelity Improvement of Piecewise Integrated Composite Beam by Construction Training Data of k-NN Classification Model (k-NN 분류 모델의 학습 데이터 구성에 따른 PIC 보의 하중 충실도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Ham, Seok Woo;Cheon, Seong S.
    • Composites Research
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 2020
  • Piecewise Integrated Composite (PIC) beam is composed of different stacking against loading type depending upon location. The aim of current study is to assign robust stacking sequences against external loading to every corresponding part of the PIC beam based on the value of stress triaxiality at generated reference points using the k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbor) classification, which is one of representative machine learning techniques, in order to excellent superior bending characteristics. The stress triaxiality at reference points is obtained by three-point bending analysis of the Al beam with training data categorizing the type of external loading, i.e., tension, compression or shear. Loading types of each plane of the beam were classified by independent plane scheme as well as total beam scheme. Also, loading fidelities were calibrated for each case with the variation of hyper-parameters. Most effective stacking sequences were mapped into the PIC beam based on the k-NN classification model with the highest loading fidelity. FE analysis result shows the PIC beam has superior external loading resistance and energy absorption compared to conventional beam.

Conditional Generative Adversarial Network based Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System (Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(CGAN) 기반 협업 필터링 추천 시스템)

  • Kang, Soyi;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2021
  • With the development of information technology, the amount of available information increases daily. However, having access to so much information makes it difficult for users to easily find the information they seek. Users want a visualized system that reduces information retrieval and learning time, saving them from personally reading and judging all available information. As a result, recommendation systems are an increasingly important technologies that are essential to the business. Collaborative filtering is used in various fields with excellent performance because recommendations are made based on similar user interests and preferences. However, limitations do exist. Sparsity occurs when user-item preference information is insufficient, and is the main limitation of collaborative filtering. The evaluation value of the user item matrix may be distorted by the data depending on the popularity of the product, or there may be new users who have not yet evaluated the value. The lack of historical data to identify consumer preferences is referred to as data sparsity, and various methods have been studied to address these problems. However, most attempts to solve the sparsity problem are not optimal because they can only be applied when additional data such as users' personal information, social networks, or characteristics of items are included. Another problem is that real-world score data are mostly biased to high scores, resulting in severe imbalances. One cause of this imbalance distribution is the purchasing bias, in which only users with high product ratings purchase products, so those with low ratings are less likely to purchase products and thus do not leave negative product reviews. Due to these characteristics, unlike most users' actual preferences, reviews by users who purchase products are more likely to be positive. Therefore, the actual rating data is over-learned in many classes with high incidence due to its biased characteristics, distorting the market. Applying collaborative filtering to these imbalanced data leads to poor recommendation performance due to excessive learning of biased classes. Traditional oversampling techniques to address this problem are likely to cause overfitting because they repeat the same data, which acts as noise in learning, reducing recommendation performance. In addition, pre-processing methods for most existing data imbalance problems are designed and used for binary classes. Binary class imbalance techniques are difficult to apply to multi-class problems because they cannot model multi-class problems, such as objects at cross-class boundaries or objects overlapping multiple classes. To solve this problem, research has been conducted to convert and apply multi-class problems to binary class problems. However, simplification of multi-class problems can cause potential classification errors when combined with the results of classifiers learned from other sub-problems, resulting in loss of important information about relationships beyond the selected items. Therefore, it is necessary to develop more effective methods to address multi-class imbalance problems. We propose a collaborative filtering model using CGAN to generate realistic virtual data to populate the empty user-item matrix. Conditional vector y identify distributions for minority classes and generate data reflecting their characteristics. Collaborative filtering then maximizes the performance of the recommendation system via hyperparameter tuning. This process should improve the accuracy of the model by addressing the sparsity problem of collaborative filtering implementations while mitigating data imbalances arising from real data. Our model has superior recommendation performance over existing oversampling techniques and existing real-world data with data sparsity. SMOTE, Borderline SMOTE, SVM-SMOTE, ADASYN, and GAN were used as comparative models and we demonstrate the highest prediction accuracy on the RMSE and MAE evaluation scales. Through this study, oversampling based on deep learning will be able to further refine the performance of recommendation systems using actual data and be used to build business recommendation systems.