• Title/Summary/Keyword: 피해예측

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A Long-term Variability of the Extent of East Asian Desert (동아시아 사막 면적의 경년변화분석)

  • Han, Hyeon-Gyeong;Lee, Eunkyung;Son, Sanghun;Choi, Sungwon;Lee, Kyeong-Sang;Seo, Minji;Jin, Donghyun;Kim, Honghee;Kwon, Chaeyoung;Lee, Darae;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_1
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2018
  • The area of desert in East Asia is increasing every year, and it cause a great cost of social damage. Because desert is widely distributed and it is difficult to approach people, remote sensing using satellites is commonly used. But the study of desert area comparison is insufficient which is calculated by satellite sensor. It is important to recognize the characteristics of the desert area data that are calculated for each sensor because the desert area calculated according to the selection of the sensor may be different and may affect the climate prediction and desertification prevention measures. In this study, the desert area of Northeast Asia in 2001-2013 was calculated and compared using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Vegetation. As a result of the comparison, the desert area of Vegetation increased by $3,020km^2/year$, while in the case of MODIS, it decreased by $20,911km^2/year$. We performed indirect validation because It is difficult to obtain actual data. We analyzed the correlation with the occurrence frequency of Asian dust affected by desert area change. As a result, MODIS showed a relatively low correlation with R = 0.2071 and Vegetation had a relatively high correlation with R = 0.4837. It is considered that Vegetation performed more accurate desert area calculation in Northeast Asian desert area.

Study on Standardization of the Environmental Impact Evaluation Method of Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields near High Voltage Overhead Transmission Lines (고압 가공송전선로의 극저주파자기장 환경영향평가 방법 표준화에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Ae;Jung, Joonsig;Choi, Taebong;Jeong, Minjoo;Kim, Bu-Kyung;Lee, Jongchun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.658-673
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    • 2018
  • Social conflicts with extremely low frequency magnetic field(ELF-MF) exposures are expected to exacerbate due to continued increase in electric power demand and construction of high voltage transmission lines(HVTL). However, in current environmental impact assessment(EIA) act, specific guidelines have not been included concretely about EIA of ELF-MF. Therefore, this study conducted a standardization study on EIA method through case analysis, field measurement, and expert consultation of the EIA for the ELF-MF near HVTL which is the main cause of exposures. The status of the EIA of the ELF-MF and the problem to be improved are derived and the EIA method which can solve it is suggested. The main contents of the study is that the physical characteristics of the ELF-MF affected by distance and powerload should be considered at all stages of EIA(survey of the current situation - Prediction of the impacts - preparation of mitigation plan ? post EIA planning). Based on this study, we also suggested the 'Measurement method for extremely low frequency magnetic field on transmission line' and 'Table for extremely low frequency magnetic field measurement record on transmission line'. The results of this study can be applied to the EIA that minimizes the damage and conflict to the construction of transmission line and derives rational measures at the present time when the human hazard to long term exposure of the ELF-MF is unclear.

Extraction of Water Body Area using Micro Satellite SAR: A Case Study of the Daecheng Dam of South korea (초소형 SAR 위성을 활용한 수체면적 추출: 대청댐 유역 대상)

  • PARK, Jongsoo;KANG, Ki-Mook;HWANG, Eui-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2021
  • It is very essential to estimate the water body area using remote exploration for water resource management, analysis and prediction of water disaster damage. Hydrophysical detection using satellites has been mainly performed on large satellites equipped with optical and SAR sensors. However, due to the long repeat cycle, there is a limitation that timely utilization is impossible in the event of a disaster/disaster. With the recent active development of Micro satellites, it has served as an opportunity to overcome the limitations of time resolution centered on existing large satellites. The Micro satellites currently in active operation are ICEYE in Finland and Capella satellites in the United States, and are operated in the form of clusters for earth observation purposes. Due to clustering operation, it has a short revisit cycle and high resolution and has the advantage of being able to observe regardless of weather or day and night with the SAR sensor mounted. In this study, the operation status and characteristics of micro satellites were described, and the water area estimation technology optimized for micro SAR satellite images was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, accuracy verification was performed based on the reference value of the water generated from the optical satellite Sentinel-2 satellite as a reference. In the case of the Capella satellite, the smallest difference in area was shown, and it was confirmed that all three images showed high correlation. Through the results of this study, it was confirmed that despite the low NESZ of Micro satellites, it is possible to estimate the water area, and it is believed that the limitations of water resource/water disaster monitoring using existing large SAR satellites can be overcome.

A study on the derivation and evaluation of flow duration curve (FDC) using deep learning with a long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and soil water assessment tool (SWAT) (LSTM Networks 딥러닝 기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;An, Sung-Wook;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1107-1118
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    • 2021
  • Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

Analysis of Rice Blast Outbreaks in Korea through Text Mining (텍스트 마이닝을 통한 우리나라의 벼 도열병 발생 개황 분석)

  • Song, Sungmin;Chung, Hyunjung;Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2022
  • Rice blast is a major plant disease that occurs worldwide and significantly reduces rice yields. Rice blast disease occurs periodically in Korea, causing significant socio-economic damage due to the unique status of rice as a major staple crop. A disease outbreak prediction system is required for preventing rice blast disease. Epidemiological investigations of disease outbreaks can aid in decision-making for plant disease management. Currently, plant disease prediction and epidemiological investigations are mainly based on quantitatively measurable, structured data such as crop growth and damage, weather, and other environmental factors. On the other hand, text data related to the occurrence of plant diseases are accumulated along with the structured data. However, epidemiological investigations using these unstructured data have not been conducted. The useful information extracted using unstructured data can be used for more effective plant disease management. This study analyzed news articles related to the rice blast disease through text mining to investigate the years and provinces where rice blast disease occurred most in Korea. Moreover, the average temperature, total precipitation, sunshine hours, and supplied rice varieties in the regions were also analyzed. Through these data, it was estimated that the primary causes of the nationwide outbreak in 2020 and the major outbreak in Jeonbuk region in 2021 were meteorological factors. These results obtained through text mining can be combined with deep learning technology to be used as a tool to investigate the epidemiology of rice blast disease in the future.

Impact Assessment of Agricultural Reservoir on Streamflow Simulation Using Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model (준분포형 모형을 이용한 농업용 저수지가 안성천 유역의 유출모의에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Bo Kyung;Kim, Byung Sik;Kwon, Hyun Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1B
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2009
  • Long-term rainfall-runoff modeling is a key element in the Earth's hydrological cycle, and associated with many different aspects such as dam design, drought management, river management flow, reservoir management for water supply, water right permission or coordinate, water quality prediction. In this regard, hydrologists have used the hydrologic models for design criteria, water resources assessment, planning and management as a main tool. Most of rainfall-runoff studies, however, were not carefully performed in terms of considering reservoir effects. In particular, the downstream where is severely affected by reservoir was poorly dealt in modeling rainfall-runoff process. Moreover, the effects can considerably affect overall the rainfallrunoff process. An objective of this study, thus, is to evaluate the impact of reservoir operation on rainfall-runoff process. The proposed approach is applied to Anseong watershed, where is in a mixed rural/urban setting of the area and in Korea, and has been experienced by flood damage due to heavy rainfall. It has been greatly paid attention to the agricultural reservoirs in terms of flood protection in Korea. To further investigate the reservoir effects, a comprehensive assessment for the results are discussed. Results of simulations that included reservoir in the model showed the effect of storage appeared in spring and autumn when rainfall was not concentrated. In periods of heavy rainfall, however, downstream runoff increased in simulations that do not consider reservoir factor. Flow duration curve showed that changes in streamflow depending upon the presence or absence of reservoir factor were particularly noticeable in ninety-five day flow and low flow.

Test of Independence Between Variables to Estimate the Frequency of Damage in Heat Pipe (열수송관 파손빈도 추정을 위한 변수간 독립성 검정)

  • Myeongsik Kong;Jaemo Kang;Sungyeol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2023
  • Heat pipes located underground in urban areas and operated under high temperature and pressure conditions can cause large-scale human and economic damage if damaged. In order to predict damage in advance, damage and construction information of heat pipe are analyzed to derive independent variables that have a correlation with frequency of damage, and a simple regression analysis modified model using each variable is applied to the field. However, as the correlation between independent variables applied to the model increases, the independence between variables is harmed and the reliability of the model decreases. In this study, the independence of the pipe diameter, burial depth, insulation level of monitoring system, and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line, which are judged to be interrelated, was tested to derive a method for combining variables and setting categories necessary to apply to the frequency of damage estimation model. For the test of independence, the continuous variables pipe diameter and burial depth were each converted into three categories, insulation level of monitoring system was converted into two categories, and the categorical variable disconnection or short circuit of the detection line status was kept as two categories. As a result of the test of independence, p-value between pipe diameter and burial depth, level of monitoring system and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line was lower than the significance level (α = 0.05), indicating a large correlation between them. Therefore, the pipe diameter and burial depth were combined into one variable, and the categories of the combined variable were set to 9 considering the previously set categories. The insulation level of monitoring system and the disconnection or short circuit of the detection line were also combined into one variable. Since the insulation level is unreliable when the detection line status is disconnection or short circuit, the categories of the combined variable were set to 3.

Applicability evaluation of GIS-based erosion models for post-fire small watershed in the wildland-urban interface (WUI 산불 소유역에 대한 GIS 기반 침식모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Shin, Seung Sook;Ahn, Seunghyo;Song, Jinuk;Chae, Guk Seok;Park, Sang Deog
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.6
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2024
  • In April 2023, a wildfire broke out in Gangneung located in the east coast region due to the influence of the Yanggang-local wind. In this study, GIS-based RUSLE(Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and SEMMA (Soil Erosion Model for Mountain Areas) were used to evaluate the erosion rate due to vegetation recovery in a small watershed of the Gangneung WUI(Wildland-Urban Interface) fire. The small watershed of WUI fire has a low altitude range of 10-30 m and the average slope of 10.0±7.4° which corresponds to a gentle slope. The soil texture was loamy sand with a high organic content and the deep soil depth. As herbaceous layer regenerated profusely in the gully after the wildfire, the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) reached a maximum of 0.55. Simulation results of erosion rates showed that RUSLE ranged from 0.07-94.9 t/ha/storm and SEMMA ranged from 0.24-83.6 t/ha/storm. RUSLE overestimated the average erosion rate by 1.19-1.48 times compared to SEMMA. The erosion rates were estimated to be high in the middle slope where burned pine trees were widely distributed and the slope was steep and to be relatively low in the hollow below the gully where herbaceous layer recovers rapidly. SEMMA showed a rapid increase in erosion sensitivity under at certain vegetation covers with NDVI below 0.25 (Ic = 0.35) on post-fire hillslopes. Gentle slopes with high organic content and rapid recovery of natural vegetation had relatively low erosion rate compared to steep slopes. As subsequent infrastructure and human damages due to sediment disaster by heavy rain is anticipated in WUI fire areas, the research results may be used as basic data for targeted management and decision making on the implementation of emergency treatment after the wildfire.

The Changing Aspects of North Korea's Terror Crimes and Countermeasures : Focused on Power Conflict of High Ranking Officials after Kim Jong-IL Era (북한 테러범죄의 변화양상에 따른 대응방안 -김정일 정권 이후 고위층 권력 갈등을 중심으로)

  • Byoun, Chan-Ho;Kim, Eun-Jung
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.39
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    • pp.185-215
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    • 2014
  • Since North Korea has used terror crime as a means of unification under communism against South Korea, South Korea has been much damaged until now. And the occurrence possibility of terror crime by North Korean authority is now higher than any other time. The North Korean terror crimes of Kim Il Sung era had been committed by the dictator's instruction with the object of securing governing fund. However, looking at the terror crimes committed for decades during Kim Jung Il authority, it is revealed that these terror crimes are expressed as a criminal behavior because of the conflict to accomplish the power and economic advantage non powerful groups target. This study focused on the power conflict in various causes of terror crimes by applying George B. Vold(1958)'s theory which explained power conflict between groups became a factor of crime, and found the aspect by ages of terror crime behavior by North Korean authority and responding plan to future North Korean terror crime. North Korean authority high-ranking officials were the Labor Party focusing on Juche Idea for decades in Kim Il Sung time. Afterwards, high-ranking officials were formed focusing on military authorities following Military First Policy at the beginning of Kim Jung Il authority, rapid power change has been done for recent 10 years. To arrange the aspect by times of terror crime following this power change, alienated party executives following the support of positive military first authority by Kim Jung Il after 1995 could not object to forcible terror crime behavior of military authority, and 1st, 2nd Yeongpyeong maritime war which happened this time was propelled by military first authority to show the power of military authority. After 2006, conservative party union enforced censorship and inspection on the trade business and foreign currency-earning of military authority while executing drastic purge. The shooting on Keumkangsan tourists that happened this time was a forcible terror crime by military authority following the pressure of conservative party. After October, 2008, first military reign union executed the launch of Gwanmyungsung No.2 long-range missile, second nuclear test, Daechung marine war, and Cheonanham attacking terror in order to highlight the importance and role of military authority. After September 2010, new reign union went through severe competition between new military authority and new mainstream and new military authority at this time executed highly professionalized terror crime such as cyber/electronic terror unlike past military authority. After July 2012, ICBM test launch, third nuclear test, cyber terror on Cheongwadae homepage of new mainstream association was the intention of Km Jung Eun to display his ability and check and adjust the power of party/military/cabinet/ public security organ, and he can attempt the unexpected terror crime in the future. North Korean terror crime has continued since 1980s when Kim Jung Il's power succession was carried out, and the power aspect by times has rapidly changed since 1994 when Kim Il Sung died and the terror crime became intense following the power combat between high-ranking officials and power conflict for right robbery. Now South Korea should install the specialized department which synthesizes and analyzes the information on North Korean high-ranking officials and reinforce the comprehensive information-collecting system through the protection and management of North Korean defectors and secret agents in order to determine the cause of North Korean terror crime and respond to it. And South Korea should participate positively in the international collaboration related to North Korean terror and make direct efforts to attract the international agreement to build the international cooperation for the response to North Korean terror crime. Also, we should try more to arrange the realistic countermeasure against North Korean cyber/electronic terror which was more diversified with the expertise terror escaping from existing forcible terror through enactment/revision of law related to cyber terror crime, organizing relevant institute and budget, training professional manpower, and technical development.

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