• Title/Summary/Keyword: 피해발생확률

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A 2MC-based Framework for Sensor Data Loss Decrease in Wireless Sensor Network Failures (무선센서네트워크 장애에서 센서 데이터 손실 감소를 위한 2MC기반 프레임워크)

  • Shin, DongHyun;Kim, Changhwa
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2016
  • Wireless sensor networks have been used in many applications such as marine environment, army installation, etc. The sensor data is very important, because all these applications depend on sensor data. The possibility of communication failures becomes high since the surrounding environment of a wireless sense network has an sensitive effect on its communications. In particular, communication failures in underwater communications occur more frequently because of a narrow bandwidth, slow transmission speed, noises from the surrounding environments and so on. In cases of communication failures, the sensor data can be lost in the sensor data delivery process and these kinds of sensor data losses can make critical huge physical damages on human or environments in applications such as fire surveillance systems. For this reason, although a few of studies for storing and compressing sensor data have been proposed, there are lots of difficulties in actual realization of the studies due to none-existence of the framework using network communications. In this paper, we propose a framework for reducing loss of the sensor data and analyze its performance. The our analyzed results in non-framework application show a decreasing data recovery rate, T/t, as t time passes after a network failure, where T is a time period to fill the storage with sensor data after the network failure. Moreover, all the sensor data generated after a network failure are the errors impossible to recover. But, on the other hand, the analyzed results in framework application show 100% data recovery rate with 2~6% data error rate after data recovery.

Development of Spatial Landslide Information System and Application of Spatial Landslide Information (산사태 공간 정보시스템 개발 및 산사태 공간 정보의 활용)

  • 이사로;김윤종;민경덕
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to develop and apply spatial landslide information system using Geographic information system (GIS) in concerned with spatial data. Landslide locations detected from interpretation of aerial photo and field survey, and topographic , soil , forest , and geological maps of the study area, Yongin were collected and constructed into spatial database using GIS. As landslide occurrence factors, slope, aspect and curvature of topography were calculated from the topographic database. Texture, material, drainage and effective thickness of soil were extracted from the soil database, and type, age, diameter and density of wood were extracted from the forest database. Lithology was extracted from the geological database, and land use was classified from the Landsat TM satellite image. In addition, landslide damageable objects such as building, road, rail and other facility were extracted from the topographic database. Landslide susceptibility was analyzed using the landslide occurrence factors by probability, logistic regression and neural network methods. The spatial landslide information system was developed to retrieve the constructed GIS database and landslide susceptibility . The system was developed using Arc View script language(Avenue), and consisted of pull-down and icon menus for easy use. Also, the constructed database can be retrieved through Internet World Wide Web (WWW) using Internet GIS technology.

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Estimation of Mega Flood Using Mega Rainfall Scenario (거대강우 시나리오를 이용한 거대홍수량 산정)

  • Han, Daegun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Jeawon;Lee, Jongso;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, flood due to the consecutive storm events have been occurred and property damage and casualties are in increasing trend. This study calls the consecutively occurred storm events as a mega rainfall scenario and the discharge by the scenario is defined as a mega flood discharge. A mega rainfall scenario was created on the assumption that 100-year frequency rainfall events were consecutively occurred in the Gyeongancheon stream basin. The SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model was used to estimate the mega flood discharge using the scenario in the basin. In addition, in order to perform more reasonable runoff analysis, the parameters were estimated using the SCE_UA algorithm. Also, the calibration and verification were performed using the objective functions of the weighted sum of squared of residual(WSSR), which is advantageous for the peak discharge simulation and sum of squared of residual(SSR). As a result, the mega flood discharge due to the continuous occurrence of 100-year frequency rainfall events in the Gyeongan Stream Basin was estimated to be 4,802㎥/s, and the flood discharge due to the 100-year frequency single rainfall event estimated by "the Master Plan for the Gyeongancheon Stream Improvement" (2011) was 3,810㎥/s. Therefore, the mega flood discharge was found to increase about 992㎥/s more than the single flood event. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan of the Gyeongan Stream basin.

Development on Classification Standard of Drought Severity (가뭄심도 분류기준의 개선방안 제시)

  • Kwon, Jinjoo;Ahn, Jaehyun;Kim, Taewoong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2013
  • As drought is phenomenon of nature with unavoidability and repeated characteristic, it is necessary to plan to respond to it in advance and construct drought management system to minimize its damage. This study suggested standard for classification of drought, which is appropriate for our nation to respond to drought by assessing drought severity in the regions for this study. For data collection, 61 locations were selected - the locations keep precipitation data over 30 years of observation. And data for monthly precipitation for 37 years from 1973 were used. Based on this, this study classified unified drought interval into four levels using drought situation phases which are used in government. For standard for classification of drought severity fit to our nation, status of main drought was referred and these are classified based on accumulated probability of drought - 98~100% Exceptional Drought, 94~98% Extreme Drought, 90~94% Severe Drought, 86~90% Moderate Drought. Drought index (SPI, PDSI) was made in descending order and quantitative value of drought index fit to standard of classification for drought severity was calculated. To compare classification results of drought severity of SPI and PDSI with actual drought, comparison by year and month unit were analyzed. As a result, in comparison by year and comparison by month unit of SPI, drought index of each location was mostly identical each other between actual records and analyzed value. But in comparison by month unit of PDSI for same period, actual records did not correspond to analyzed values. This means that further study about mutual supplement for these indexes is necessary.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.

The Inundation Simulation for Inland by River Hydraulic Structures (하천 수리구조물에 의한 제내지 침수모의)

  • Choo, Tai-Ho;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Noh, Hyun-Suk;Yun, Gwan-Seon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.2460-2468
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    • 2014
  • A local rain that is concentrated in specific area in a short time frequently occurs due to recent abnormal weather. To prevent potential flood disasters, therefore, it is necessary to be established to the flood control system. Checking the river design standard, however, hydrologic design frequency of water gate is only marked as over 20 years, so this fact shows that the standard is unclear. The inland inundation modeling considering the stage in a river and quantitative assessment are required to reduce flood damage. The simulation for internal inundation is very complex and is time-consuming due to considering hydraulic hydrology characteristics at the same time. Using the already established river master plan, consequently, this study proposed the simple and convenient method for assessment of the internal inundation simulation. Using the proposed method in the upper and middle regions of a river, influences for design frequency or water gate location were assessed by applying the nine probability precipitation with design frequency and by targeting the water gates which are installed in five inlands.

Adverse Selection in the Korean Storm and Flood Insurance Market (국내 풍수해보험시장에서의 역선택 문제에 관한 실증분석)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Yeo, Eunjung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.39-63
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    • 2013
  • We use a unique survey data set of storm and flood insurance in Korea to test for adverse selection. We find systematically positive relationships between the decision to buy the insurance and the insureds' past history with, and potential for, losses from natural disasters. The empirical results suggest that consumers with higher loss rates will be more likely to purchase the insurance. This highlights the importance of considering the detailed features of insurance contracts, such as an improvement in the current insurance premium assistance program as the government amends its current policies regarding storm and flood insurance and disaster relief program.

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A Study on Flood Hazard Value and Flood Risk Map (홍수 위험지표 및 위험도 작성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yup;Jung, Dae-Jin;Bok, Jeong-Su;Cho, Hyo-Seob;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1156-1160
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구는 빈도별 수문조건하의 2차원 수리해석모형(FLUMEN) 결과를 제공받아 빈도별 침수범람 등을 분석하고, 이로부터 도출되는 침수면적, 최대침수심, 최대유속 등의 특성정보를 이용하여 침수심보다 상대적으로 홍수 위험에 대한 척도를 나타내어 줄 수 있는 홍수 강도(Flood Intensity) 개념을 도입하여 대상유역에 적합한 홍수 위험지표(Flood Hazard Value) 및 홍수 위험도(Flood Risk Map)를 작성하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 대상지역은 안성천 중류부의 평택시 6개동을 포함하는 약 $12.6km^2$의 대상지역으로 2차원 수리해석모형(FLUMEN)의 분석한 시간별 침수심(Flow Depth), 최대침수심과 최대 유속 등의 결과를 ASCII파일의 XYZ값 형태로 제공받아 ArcGis 등을 이용하여 Point Coverage를 만들고, 이로부터 TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network)작업을 수행한 후 대상지역의 최대 침수심도 및 최대 유속분포도 등을 작성하였다. 그리고, 침수예상도 등으로부터 얻어진 침수면적, 최대 침수심, 최대유속 등을 분석하여 침수심과 유속의 함수로 홍수강도를 정의하고 홍수강도와 홍수발생확률의 곱으로 위험지표를 산정하였고, 산정된 홍수 위험지표를 적용하여 홍수 위험도를 작성하였다. 본 연구로부터 도출되는 홍수 위험지표 및 홍수 위험도는 홍수범람에 의한 인명피해 및 재산손실과 이에 대한 복구 및 구호활동에 소요되는 노력 등의 여러 가지 사회..경제적 역기능을 방지하고자 홍수에 의한 침수특성을 이해하고 홍수에 대비한 적절한 홍수방어대책 수립시의 지원 정보로 제공되어 활용될 수 있다.

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Appropriateness analysis of design rainfall factors using the rainfall data of an inundated flood events (침수 홍수사상의 강우자료를 활용한 설계강우 요소의 적정성 분석)

  • Yu, Byeong-Wook;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze whether design rainfall and hyetograph, which are the main elements of design rainfall, can properly reflect the those of observed rainfalls through inundated rainfall events. The target areas were selected at seven large cities with high damages regarding to the flooding. Comparative analysis between probability and observed rainfall shows that 57% of the cases, in which rainfall amount through the IDF curve is estimated lower than the observed rainfall, do not properly reflect the observed rainfalls. In particular, this trend is exacerbated by the cases in low return period and the rain type of typhoon or frontal rain. The comparative results of rainfall intensity formula showed that the Talbot and Japanese formula were stable in the short- and long-term return periods, respectively. The comparison of hyetograph results also showed that the Mononobe method properly reflects the maximum rainfall intensity and the Huff method properly reflects the shape of rainfall pattern.

Economic Analysis of The Operational Policy for Data Backup with Information Security Threats (정보보호위협하에서 경제적인 데이터백업 운영 정책 분석)

  • Yang, Won Seok;Kim, Tae-Sung;Lee, Doo Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.270-278
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    • 2014
  • The stability and security management of IT data becomes more important because information security threats increases rapidly in Big Data era. The operational policy of the data backup considering information security threats is required because the backup policy is the fundamental method that prevents the damage of security threats. We present an economic approach for a data backup system with information security threats which damage the system. The backup operation consists of the differential backup and the batch backup. We present a stochastic model considering the occurrence of information security threats and their damage. We analyze the stochastic model to derive the performance measures for the cost analysis. Finally we analyze the average cost of the system and give numerical examples.