• Title/Summary/Keyword: 표본 내 예측

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The Influence of Manager's Wealth on Adopting Anitakeover Measures (경영자의 부가 기업의 반인수조치 선택에 미치는 영향)

  • Choo, Hyun-Tai
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.167-186
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    • 1995
  • 기업인수합병(M&A) 시장의 활성화에 따라 적대적 공개매수를 방어하기 위한 반인수조치(Antitakeover Techniques)들에 관한 관심도 고조되고 있다. 지금까지 널리 알려져 있는 대표적인 반인수 조치들은 Fair Price Amendment(FPA), Classified Board Amendment(CBA)와 Poison Pills(PP) 등이다. 이들 대표적 세 반인수조치들 중에서 FPA와 CBA 채택의 경우는 주주들의 사전 승인이 요구되는데 반하여 PP는 주주들의 사전 승인없이 채택이 가능한 반인수조치이다. 이처럼 상이한 반인수조치들의 채택은 채택기업의 가치에 상이한 부의 효과를 미치는데, 이 분야의 많은 실증적연구 결과들이 보고되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 표본기업으로 현재까지 상호개별적으로 연구되어 왔던 두가지 반인수조치(FTA, CBA)에 PP와 비채택기업도 포함시키고 있다. 지금까지의 반인수조치 채택에 따른 기업가치에 미치는 부의 효과에 관한 연구결과를 확인해보고, 반인수조치 채택에 관한 경영자의 의사결정과 경영자의 부 사이에 체계적인 관계가 존재하는지를 실증분석하고자 한다. 여기서 경영자의 부는 기업내부자 지분율과 기업내 경영자를 위한 Golden Parachute의 존재 유무로 측정한다. 본 연구에서는 3개의 가설을 설정하였다. 가설1: 만일 경영자가 주주의 이익을 희생하면서 자신의 이익을 위한 반인수조치를 채택한다면, 반인수조치 채택의 공표는 평균적으로 기업가치에 부(-)의 효과를 보일 것이다. 가설2: 경영자의 내부지분율이 낮을때 경영자들은 주주에게 가장 해로운 반인수조치를 선택할 것이다. 가설3: Golden Parachute가 존재하지 않을때 경영자들은 주주에게 가장 해로운 반인수조치를 채택할 것이다. 본 연구의 대상기업들중에서 반인수조치 채택 기업들은 IRRC 1990년도판에서 수집되었고, 대칭표본 기업으로 반인수조치를 채택하지 않은 기업들은 CRSP 파일에서 기업규모, SIC 코드를 대응시켜 선정하였다. 임원, 관계이사들과 친인척을 포함하는 내부자의 지분과 Golden Parachute 존재 여부는 이 연구의 표본기업들의 Proxy Statement에서 수집하였다. 최종 표본기업은 FPA 채택기업, CBA 채택기업, PP채택기업, 그리고 비채택기업으로 4개의 상호 배타적인 기업 그룹으로 구성되었다. 본 연구는 Event Study와 Multinomial Logistic Regession의 두가지 실증분석 방법을 사용하였다. Event Study방법론은 반인수조치 채택 공표시 초과수익률을 조사하기 위해 사용하였다. Multinomial Logistic Regession은 선택된 반인수조치 종류와 설명 변수들(내부자 지분율, Golden Parachute)간에 체계적인 관계가 존재하는지를 검증하기 위해 사용되었다. 반인수조치들을 채택하는 기업들은 반인수조치를 채택하고 있지 않은 기업들에 비해 내부자 지분율이 낮게 나타났으며, 반인수조치 중 PP를 채택한 기업에서 가장 낮은 내부지분율을 보이고 있다. GP 채택을 보면 PP를 선택한 기업의 50%가 GP를 채택하였다. 본 연구에서 반인수조치 채택 발표일 하루 전후의 초과수익률을 조사한 결과는 반인수조치 미채택기업, CBA, FPA 채택기업들의 초과수익률은 통계적으로 의미가 없었으나, PP채택에 따른 초과수익률은 의미 있는 부(-)의 값을 나타냈다. 이와같이 CBA와 FPA채택기업들은 주주의 부를 감소시키지 않았으나 PP채택기업들은 주주의 부를 감소시켰다. 따라서 경영자는 주주의 이익을 희생시키면서 자신의 이익을 위해 PP를 선택하고 있음을 보여 주고 있다. 연구결과는 내부자 지분율의 크기가 경영자와 주주간의 이해를 효과적으로 일치시키고 있음을 제시하고 있다. 즉, 내부자 지분율이 큰 기업일수록 반인수조치를 채택하지 않거나 반인수조치 채택시에 주주의 이익에 반하지 않은 반인수조치를 선택하는 경향이 높다. Golden Parachute이 존재하는 기업은 FPA를 채택하거나 반인수조치를 채택하지 않는 것보다 PP나 CBA를 채택하는 경향이 더 높다. 한편 기업에서의 GP의 존재가 경영자의 가장 해로운 반인수조치 선택을 억제하지 못함을 보여주고 있는데, 이는 GP가 비효과적인 계약메카니즘임을 제기한다. GP가 경영자와 주주간의 이해를 일치시키도록하는 계약이라기 보다는 차라리 기업방어전략이 비효과적일때 경영자 자신의 안전판으로 제공되고 있음을 보여준다. 이 논문의 주요공헌은 기업내부자 지분율의 크기와 GP의 존재가 반인수조치 선택에 체계적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 보여준 것이다. 여기서 사용된 Multinomial Logistic모델은 내부지분을 크기와 GP의 존재가 PP또는 CBA가 채택될 것인지를 예측할 수 있게 한다.

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P Wave Dispersion as a Predictor of Idiopathic Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (특발성 발작성 심방세동 환자에서 P파 간격분산의 의의)

  • Hong, Gue-Ru;Kim, Woong;Park, Jong-Seon;Shin, Dong-Gu;Kim, Young-Jo;Shim, Bong-Sup
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.267-276
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    • 2001
  • Background: P wave dispersion(PWD) is defined as the difference between the maximum and minimal P wave duration in any of the 12 leads of the surface ECG. The prolongation of atrial conduction time and the inhomogeneous propagation of sinus impulse are known electrophysiologic features in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF). The purpose of this study was to determine the role of P wave dispersion for the prediction of PAF and to evaluate the effectiveness of prophylactic antiarrhythmic therapy. Materials and Methods: The study population included 20 patients with a history of idiopathic PAF and 20 age and sex matched healthy control subjects. We measured the maximum P wave duration(P maximum) and P wave dispersion from 12 lead ECG. Results: P maximum and P dispersion in idiopathic PAF were significantly higher than normal control group($97.2{\pm}12$, $48.5{\pm}9$ msec vs, $76.5{\pm}11$, $21{\pm}8$ msec, respectively p<0.001, <0.001). After 12-month follow up period P maximum and P dispersion were significantly reduced than those of initial state($77.2{\pm}13$, $26.4{\pm}9$ msec vs. $97.2{\pm}12$, $48.5{\pm}9$ msec, respectively p<0.001,<0.001). Conclusion: P dispersion and P maximum were significantly different between patients with idiopathic PAF and healthy control group. Those are easily accessible, non-invasive simple electrocadiographic markers that could be used for the prediction and prognostic factors of idiopathic PAF.

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A study on the predictability of acoustic power distribution of English speech for English academic achievement in a Science Academy (과학영재학교 재학생 영어발화 주파수 대역별 음향 에너지 분포의 영어 성취도 예측성 연구)

  • Park, Soon;Ahn, Hyunkee
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2022
  • The average acoustic distribution of American English speakers was statistically compared with the English-speaking patterns of gifted students in a Science Academy in Korea. By analyzing speech recordings, the duration time of which is much longer than in previous studies, this research identified the degree of acoustic proximity between the two parties and the predictability of English academic achievement of gifted high school students. Long-term spectral acoustic power distribution vectors were obtained for 2,048 center frequencies in the range of 20 Hz to 20,000 Hz by applying an long-term average speech spectrum (LTASS) MATLAB code. Three more variables were statistically compared to discover additional indices that can predict future English academic achievement: the receptive vocabulary size test, the cumulative vocabulary scores of English formative assessment, and the English Speaking Proficiency Test scores. Linear regression and correlational analyses between the four variables showed that the receptive vocabulary size test and the low-frequency vocabulary formative assessments which require both lexical and domain-specific science background knowledge are relatively more significant variables than a basic suprasegmental level English fluency in the predictability of gifted students' academic achievement.

Development of the National Integrated Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model to Calculate Forest Fire Danger Rating in the Spring and Fall (봄철과 가을철의 기상에 의한 전국 통합 산불발생확률 모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang;Yoon, Sukhee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2018
  • Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as topographical and forest factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced national integrated daily weather index(DWI) using weather data in the spring and fall to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One national integrated model of the spring and fall is respectively $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.706+(0.088^*T_{mean})-(0.055^*Rh)-(0.023^*Eh)-(0.014^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$, $[1+{\exp}\{-(1.099+(0.117^*T_{mean})-(0.069^*Rh)-(0.182^*W_{mean}))\}^{-1}]^{-1}$ and all weather variables significantly (p<0.01) affected the probability of forest fire occurrence in the overall regions. The accuracy of the model in the spring and fall is respectively 71.7% and 86.9%. One integrated national model showed 10% higher accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied weather data with 66 random sampling in forest fire event days. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Association between Medial Temporal Atrophy, White Matter Hyperintensities, Neurocognitive Functions and Activities of Daily Living in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment (알츠하이머병 및 경도인지장애 환자에서 내측두엽 위축, 대뇌백질병변, 신경인지기능과 일상생활 수행능력과의 연관성)

  • An, Min hyuk;Kim, Hyun;Lee, Kang Joon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2021
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to compare activities of daily living (ADLs) according to degenerative changes in brain [i.e., medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), white matter hyperintensities] and to examine the association between neurocognitive functions and ADLs in Korean patients with dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods : Participants were 111 elderly subjects diagnosed with AD or MCI in this cross-sectional study. MTA in brain MRI was rated with standardized visual rating scales (Scheltens scale) and the subjects were divided into two groups according to Scheltens scale. ADLs was evaluated with the Korean version of Blessed Dementia Scale-Activity of daily living (BDS-ADL). Neurocognitive function was evaluated with the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease assessment packet (CERAD-K). Independent t-test was performed to compare ADLs with the degree of MTA. Pearson correlation and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to analyze the relationship between ADLs and neurocognitive functions. Results : The group with high severity of the MTA showed significantly higher BDS-ADL scores (p<0.05). The BDS-ADL score showed the strongest correlation with the word list recognition test among sub-items of the CERAD-K test (r=-0.568). Findings from the hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the scores of MMSE-K and word list recognition test were factors that predict ADLs (F=44.611, p<0.001). Conclusions : ADLs of AD and MCI patients had significant association with MTA. Our study, which identifies factors correlated with ADLs can provide useful information in clinical settings. Further evaluation is needed to confirm the association between certain brain structures and ADLs.

THREE DIMENTIONAL FORCE ANALYSIS OF FORCE SYSTEM IN CONTINUOUS ARCHWIRE BY FINITE ELEMENT METHOD (CONTINUOUS ARCHWIRE의 FORCE SYSTEM에 대한 3차원 유한 요소법적 연구)

  • Row, Joon;Ryu, Young-Kyu
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.26 no.1 s.54
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    • pp.17-32
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    • 1996
  • It is important to understand the operating mechanism and force system of fixed appliance that most effective for individual tooth movement in various orthodontic appliances. The archwire system of fixed appliance is devided into 3 types, which is continuous arch, segmented arch and sectional arch. The last two types have longer interbracket distance and simple force operating points, so it is easy to control force system by operator. But the continuous arch has shorter interbracket distance and various bracket geometry, so it is hard to control and anaylze the force system. The purpose of this study was three dimentional force and moment analysis of continuous arch system by finite element method, which is similar situation to three dimentional elastic beam in structural engineering. Several sample form of various bracket geometry and artificial lower crowding typodont made by author were constructed, analyzed and compared each other. The results were as follows : 1. The force magnitude is linear proportional to the degree of displacement or tilting of the bracket. 2. The force magnitude is inversely non-linear proportional to the interbracket distance. 3. In three dimensional typodont model, while the force can be compared with that of the sample form in the area where adjacent bracket geometry is simple, the force is much more than the expected value in the area where adjacent bracket geometry is complex.

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Developing Korean Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Reflecting Climate Change in the Spring of 2000s (2000년대 기후변화를 반영한 봄철 산불발생확률모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Golfers' Intention to Adopt UV Specialized Clothing as Innovation: Based on Rogers Theory (골퍼의 자외선 차단의복의 수용 의도: Rogers의 혁신확산이론을 중심으로)

  • Sung Heewon;Slocum Ann C.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.28 no.12 s.138
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    • pp.1554-1561
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    • 2004
  • In the U.S., outdoor enthusiasts such as golfers have been focused on skin cancer prevention practices since their outdoor activities lead to extensive sun exposure during peak sun hours. The purposes of this study were to investigate golfers current sun protection behaviors and five attributes and their impacts on the intention to adopt UV specialized clothing based on Rogers' theory. UV specialized clothing as a preventive innovation is related to sun protection behaviors. However, there has been little effort to explain the intention to adopt a preventive innovation regarding health-related practices. With a convenience sampling method, a total of 158 useful questionnaires were collected. Ninety one percent were male golfers, and their age ranged from 16 to 80 years old(mean age=30 years). About $25\%$ reported to practice sun protection behaviors. About $70\%$ disagreed on the relative advantage, compatibility, observability, and triability of UV specialized shirts and reported the low intention to purchase it. Current sun protection behaviors and five attribute variables were entered in the multiple regression equation to explain the dependent variable of intention to adopt the innovation. Triability was the best predictor of the intention to adopt UV specialized shirts, followed by current sun protection behaviors, compatibility, and relative advantage. With four predictors, $45\%$ of the variance of intention to adopt was explained. The present study provides how the golfers current sun protection behaviors play important roles in explaining the intention to adopt the preventive innovation. Physical and functional features of UV specialized clothing were also significantly associated with their intentions to adopt it.

Estimation of the Spillovers during the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 동안 전이효과에 대한 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.

Factors Affecting the Adjustment of Children from Maritally Violent Homes : An Exploratory Analysis Focusing on Children Living in Shelters for Battered Women (아내폭력가정 자녀의 적응에 영향을 미치는 요인들 : 쉼터 거주 아동을 중심으로)

  • Chang, Hee-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.55
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    • pp.255-281
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    • 2003
  • This study sought to explore factors affecting the adjustment of children living in shelters for battered women. Specifically, the impact of domestic violence on children's internal and external adjustment was examined using data from two samples: children who were exposed to marital violence and those who did not have violent experience. Likewise, this study identified the variables that distinguished the "resilient" children from the maladjusted group. The pathways by which protective factors considerably affected children's adjustment were also investigated. A total of 72 children in a women's shelter and their mothers and 76 children in nonviolent homes and their mothers were considered. ANOVA, logistic regression models, and path analysis were employed to process the data. Results revealed that children of battered women demonstrated a high frequency of aggressive and delinquent behaviors and had poor academic achievement and depressive mood compared to children coming from nonviolent homes. Likewise, children who were exposed to marital violence and were physically abused themselves were more likely show aggressive or delinquent behaviors compared to those who only witnessed marital violence. In addition, social support was found to be a protective factor in academic achievement. Predictors of delinquent behavior included the mother's education and income as well as the children's age and social support. Factors related to children's self-esteem included the social support and the mother's self-esteem. Moreover, woman battering has a direct effect on children's adjustment as well as indirect effect through children's academic achievement and self-esteem. Finally, woman battering indirectly affected children's academic achievement through the mother's depression or the child's social support. Based on these findings, practical implications of enhancing children's adjustment were discussed.

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