• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.819-827
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• 2009

Kim et al. (2006) analyzed the donation data surveyed by Voluneteer 21 in year 2002 at South Korea using a Poisson regression based on the mixture of two Poissons and detected significant variables for affecting the number of donations. However, noting the large deviation between the predicted and the actual frequencies of zero, we developed in this note a Poisson regression model based on a distribution in which zero inflated Poisson was added to the mixture of two Poissons. Thus the population distribution is now a mixture of three Poissons in which one component is concentrated on zero mass. We used the EM algorithm for estimating the regression parameters and detected the same variables with Kim et al's for significantly affecting the response. However, we could estimate the proportion of the fixed zero group to be 0.201, which was the characteristic of this model. We also noted that among two significant variables, the income and the volunteer experience(yes, no), the second variable could be utilized as a strategric variable for promoting the donation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.189-189
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• 2015

본 연구는 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 포아송 강우생성모형의 일종인 MBLRP(Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse)를 개발하고, 대한민국 주요 도시에 대해 향후 100년간 강우의 변화를 살펴보았다. 기존 MBLRP 모형에서 기후변화에 따른 강우량 변화를 고려할 수 있도록 GCM 모형의 강우 자료를 활용하였고, GCM 모형으로부터 발생하는 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 IPCC의 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 모의한 16개의 GCM 모형을 사용하였다. 2007년부터 2099년까지의 미래기간을 3개의 시 구간으로 구분하고, 16개 GCM 앙상블을 사용하여 미래기간 동안 대한민국 16개 도시에 대해 1000개의 샘플을 BWA 방법을 이용하여 생성하였다. 제어기간(1973-2005) 대비 미래기간(2007-2099)의 변화율을 나타내는 FOC(factor of change)와 온도의 연별 변화율을 나타내는 SF(scaling factor)의 개념을 결합하여 미래기간에 대한 CF(correction factor)를 산정하였다. 이때 CF는 16개 도시의 연 단위 강우량 변화 비율을 월별로 나타내며, 제어기간의 월 강우 관측치와 CF를 몬테카를로 모의를 실시하여 미래기간의 강우 시나리오를 산정한다. 이를 통해 월 평균 강우량 통계치를 연 단위로 얻을 수 있으며, 월 평균 강우량이 월 평균 분산, 무강우확률, 자기상관계수와 가지는 선형 관계를 통해 강우 통계치를 산출한다. 이와 같은 강우 통계치는 가상강우생성모형인 MBLRP 모형에 입력 자료로 활용되어 월 강우량을 시 단위의 강우 시계열 자료로 생성해낸다. 최종적으로 MBLRP 모형으로 산정된 시 단위 강우 시계열은 기후변화 영향을 고려한 GCMs 앙상블로 생성된 강우 시나리오를 기반으로 산출되기 때문에 향후 수자원 분석에 활용 가능할 것이라 기대된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.284-284
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• 2023

도시 침수의 발생과 규모는 도시 유역이 가지는 짧은 도달 시간으로 인하여 주로 시단위 이하의 짧은 지속시간의 강우의 극한 및 변동성에 따라 결정된다. 미래 기간에 대하여 도시 수문 시스템의 적정성을 평가하기 위해서는 기후변화에 따른 시단위 이하 강우의 특성을 살펴보아야한다. 그러나 기후변화 영향 평가 도구로 활용되는 기후 모형들은 대부분 일단위의 결과물을 제공하여 시단위 이하의 미세 규모 강우의 특성을 나타낼 수 없다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기후 모형 모의 결과와 포아송 클러스터 강우 모형을 이용하여 미래 시단위 이하 강우 시계열을 모의하는 방법을 제안한다. 첫째로, 포아송 클러스터 기반 강우 생성 알고리즘과 폭풍우 재배열 알고리즘을 결합한 최신 모형을 선정하였다. 해당 모형은 광범위한 시간 규모에서 관측된 강우량의 주요 통계와 극값을 재현할 수 있는 모형이다. 그 다음 강우 모형에 적합시킬 관측 강우량 통계(평균, 분산, 공분산, 왜도, 우기 비율)를 계산하였다. 둘째, 강우 통계 간의 선형 관계를 도출하였다. 여기서는 클러스터에 있는 모든 관측소의 통계를 사용하여 회귀의 신뢰도를 높였다. 셋째, 강우 평균 조정을 위한 Change Factor는 제어(2000~2019년) 및 미래(2041~2070년) 기간의 기후 모형 자료를 사용하여 계산하였다. 넷째, 조정된 15분 강우 평균은 관측 평균에 Change Factor을 곱하여 계산하고 조정된 강우 평균과 통계 간의 관계를 사용하여 미래 강우 통계 세트를 추정하였다. 여러 통계 세트를 생성한 후 마지막으로 미래 통계에 강우 모형을 적합시켜 최종적으로 미래 시단위 이하 강우 시계열을 모의하였다. 이 방법은 CMIP6에 참여하는 기후 모델의 기후 예측 데이터를 사용하여 용산(415) 및 동래(940) AWS 관측소에 적용되었다. 두 관측소의 미래 강우 모의 결과, 시단위 이하 시간 규모에서 극값이 증가하는 추세를 보였다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.1617-1622
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• 2015

This paper analyzes the ratio of tunneling current for channel doping concentration of sub-10 nm asymmetric double gate(DG) MOSFET. The ratio of tunneling current for off current in subthreshold region increases in the region of channel length of 10 nm below. Even though asymmetric DGMOSFET is developed to reduce short channel effects, the increase of tunneling current in sub-10 nm is inevitable. As the ratio of tunneling current in off current according to channel doping concentration is calculated in this study, the influence of tunneling current to occur in short channel is investigated. To obtain off current to consist of thermionic emission and tunneling current, the analytical potential distribution is obtained using Poisson equation and tunneling current using WKB(Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin). As a result, tunneling current is greatly changed for channel doping concentration in sub-10 nm asymmetric DGMOSFET, specially with parameters of channel length, channel thickness, and top/bottom gate oxide thickness and voltage.

• Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.127-138
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• 2000

This study was conducted to examine the differences between dynamic and static elastic constants by use of some laboratory tests of cement mortar specimens which have different water/cement mixing ratios. Specific gravity measurement, ultrasonic velocity estimating and uniaxial compression test were adopted to acquire the dynamic and static elastic constants. Digital data acquisition and processing enhanced the accuracy of estimating the velocities of specimens drastically, Also, the method using the gradient of propagation delay time in according to increment of specimen length more enhanced the accuracy than the method using the only one specimen length over total propagation time. The correlation between density and the P and S wave velocity of specimens shows reliable positive relation and the correlation between density and the strength of uniaxial compression has the similar relationship. The dynamic Young's modulus $(E_D)$ is alway greater than the static Young's modulus $(E_S)$ and there is increasing tendency of the ratio $(E_D/E_S)$ according to the increase of density or strength of the specimens. On the other hand, there is no typical relationship between dynamic Poisson's ratio $({\nu}_D)$ and static Poisson's ratio $({\nu}_S)$ and just the ratio of ${\nu}_D/{\nu}_S$ ranges front 69 to 122 %.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.992-997
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• 2016

This paper analyzes the deviation of tunneling current for the ratio of top and bottom gate oxide thickness of short channel asymmetric double gate(DG) MOSFET. The ratio of tunneling current for off current significantly increases if channel length reduces to 5 nm. This short channel effect occurs for asymmetric DGMOSFET having different top and bottom gate oxide structure. The ratio of tunneling current in off current with parameters of channel length and thickness, doping concentration, and top/bottom gate voltages is calculated in this study, and the influence of tunneling current to occur in short channel is investigated. The analytical potential distribution is obtained using Poisson equation and tunneling current using WKB(Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin). As a result, tunneling current is greatly changed for the ratio of top and bottom gate oxide thickness in short channel asymmetric DGMOSFET, specially according to channel length, channel thickness, doping concentration, and top/bottom gate voltages.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.333-340
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• 2016

The aim of this study is to specifically understand the characteristics of the crime by empirical analysis for the determining factors that affect determining the crime through the space syntax in Busan. In this study, poisson regression and negative binomial regression were used for accurate analysis. 8 variables that were significant of the total 13 variables. The summary if this study based on the results is as follow. Statistically significant variables are female ratio, over 65 population ratio, administration are and commercial area ratio in characteristics. And the more CCTVs a region has, the lower crime rate it shows. As a results of examing whether space syntax variables can predict crime occurrence places. Space with low connectivity come to be a crime causal factor because they have few other related spaces and thereby have low possibility of sudden appearance of interrupters, which results in low surveillance levels of foot passengers. It will provide the basic data that can contribute to urban planning and implementation of crime prevention aspects.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.197-211
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• 2011

Due to the complexity of spatial interaction and the necessity of spatial representation and modeling, aggregation of spatial interaction data is indispensible. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) on a spatial interaction model. Four aggregation schemes are utilized at eight different scales: 1) randomly select seeds of district and then allocate basic spatial units to them, 2) minimize the sum of population weighted distance within a district, 3) maximize the proportion of flow within a district, and 4) minimize the proportion of flow within a district. A simple Poisson regression model with origin and destination constraints is utilized. Analysis results demonstrate that spatial characteristics of residuals, parameter values, and goodness-of-fit of the model were influenced by aggregation scale and schemes. Overall, the model responded more sensitively to aggregation scale than aggregation schemes and the scale effect on the model was varied according to aggregation schemes.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.133-145
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• 1995

This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distribution from field data for repairable products with multiple modes of failure, and is an extension of Bai et al.(1995). The log linear function is considered as a model for describing the relation between failure time of a product and covariates. Using the nonhomogeneous poisson process, general methods for obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) for the parameters are outlined and specific formulas for Weibull distribution are obtained. Effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs are investigated. Extension to case-cohort design is also considered.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.325-333
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• 2014

Hydraulic fracturing is the key technology for production of shale gas, which is one of the major unconventional resources. Brittleness index is one of the most important mechanical properties which determine the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing. It was required that the production of shale gas increases with more brittle behavior. Confusingly, there are numerous definitions available for brittleness of rock. This paper summarizes various definitions of brittleness index, and presents correlation analysis of the brittleness indices by using the laboratory experimental results of 48 shale specimens in Korea. Generally, it shows a very weak positive correlation between the brittleness index ($B_1$) which is the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to tensile strength and the brittleness index ($B_3$) which is calculated by using the Youngs modulus and Poisson's ratio. In addition, the role of Poissons ratio is not clear in defining brittleness indices. In conclusion, standardization of definition for brittleness index is required to apply it to hydraulic fracturing as a parameter for predicting the efficiency.