• Title/Summary/Keyword: 패널 VAR

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Analysis of the Relationship between House Price, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Variables (주택가격, 소득불평등 및 거시경제변수간의 관계분석)

  • Kwon, Sun-Hee;Hyun, Seong-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

A Study on the Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Insurance Using Dynamic Panel Models (동태적 패널모형을 통한 무역보험의 거시경제효과 연구)

  • Nam, Sang Wook
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.61
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    • pp.165-190
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

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R&D and Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: CO2 Case (R&D 투자와 환경쿠즈네츠 곡선 가설: CO2 사례 분석)

  • Kang, Heechan;Hwang, Sangyeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.89-112
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, as a determining factor of the Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis, we analyzed the impact of technological innovation. In this paper, in order to empirically validate the role of technological innovation to an inverted U-shaped Environments Kuznets Curve hypothesis, we utilize the 2SLS considering relationship between R&D and the GDP per capita. Also, using the Panel VAR (Panel Vector Auto Regression) model to analyze with what time lag R&D per capita has impact on the emissions of greenhouse gases per capita. Empirical results show that R&D per capita(proxy of innovation) is a important factor to explain Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, and that the external shock such as R&D per capita reduces greenhouse gas emissions per capita with about 3 time lag.

Analysis of the Influence of Foreign Direct Investment on Carbon Emissions: Analysis Using Panel VAR Model (외국인투자가 탄소배출량에 미치는 영향분석: 패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 분석)

  • Ryoo, Sung-Woo;Lee, Yang-Kee;Kim, Neung-Woo
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between foreign investment and carbon emissions in the Korean electricity sector, the causal relationship between the foreign investment invested in the electric power sector in the 16 regional regions and the carbon emissions in the region, The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of foreign investment on these sectors and the carbon footprint of these sectors using Panel Random Effect Analysis, Panel VAR and OLS models. A panel analysis of foreign investment and regional carbon emissions showed that there was a causal relationship. Based on this analysis, OLS analysis showed that 7 out of 16 metropolitan areas were foreign investment And carbon emissions were significant. In the remaining six regions except Gwangju, there was a causal relationship between foreign investment in the local power sector and the reduction of carbon emissions. After categorizing the electric power industry by device, process, purpose and number of employees, causality also appeared in relation to foreign investment in these sectors and their carbon emissions. Through this study, the authors suggest that foreign investment can be a way to solve not only the financial burden of carbon emission problem, but also the development of national economy and industry through the inflow of capital and advanced new technology.

Analysis of the Relationships among Energy, Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using Metropolitan City/Province Level Data (광역시·도별 자료를 이용한 에너지, 경제성장, 온실가스 배출 간의 관계 분석)

  • Lee, Jaeseok;Lee, Keun-Dae;Yu, Bok-Keun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.503-533
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    • 2021
  • This paper analyzes the relationships among the energy consumption, renewable energy production, real gross regional domestic product(GRDP), and greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. It uses the metropolitan city and province level data for Korea from 2010 to 2018, employing a panal vector autoregressive(VAR) model. We find that an increase in energy consumption has a limited impact on boosting renewable energy production or gross regional domestic product, while it leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. A rise in renewable energy production can increase gross regional domestic product, but it has no meaningful effects on energy consumption and the reduction of green house gas emissions. Our finding indicates that it is crucial to expand the supply of renewable energy as well as to decrease energy consumption in order to achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reaching economic growth.

The Causal Relationship Test between Marine Business Cycle and Shipping Market Using Heterogeneous Mixed Panel Framework (해운경기변동과 선박시장에 대한 다차원 혼합 패널 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

A Dynamic Causality Analysis of Oliver Flounder Producer Price by Region using the Panel VAR Model (패널 VAR 모형을 이용한 지역별 양식넙치 산지가격의 동태적 인과관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Yong-Han;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the leading price between Jeju and Wando's oliver flounder producer price and to analyze the dynamic effect of the regional producer price using the panel VAR model. In the process of analysis, it was confirmed that there are unit roots in the monthly data of Jeju and Wando's oliver flounder producer price. So, in order to avoid spurious regression, the rate change of producer price which carries out log difference was used in the analysis. As a result of the analysis, first, the panel Granger causality test showed that the influence of the change rate of producer price in oliver flounder in Jeju was slightly larger than that in Wando, but it was found that each region all leads the change rate of the producer price in oliver flounder. Second, the panel VAR estimation showed that the rate change of producer price in Jeju and Wando a month ago had a statistically significant effect on the change rate of producer price of each region. Third, the impulse response analysis indicated that other regions are affected a little more than the same region in case of the occurrence of the impact on the error terms of the change rate of produce price in Jeju and Wando oliver flounder. Fourth, the variance decomposition analysis showed that the change rate of producer price in the two regions was higher explained by Jeju compared to Wando. In conclusion, it is expected that the above results can not only be useful as basic data for the stabilization of oliver flounder producer price and the establishment of policies for easing volatility but can also help the oliver flounder industry operate its business.

An Empirical Study on the Contribution of Housing Price to Low Fertility (주택가격 상승 충격의 저출산 심화 기여도 연구)

  • Park, Jinbaek
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.607-612
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    • 2021
  • This study estimated the impact of the shock of housing price increase on the total fertility rate and the contribution of each variable to changes in the TFR. This study is differentiated by estimating the contribution rate of each variable to the fertility rate through the Shapley decomposition and the panel VAR's forecast error variance decomposition, which previous studies have not attempted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the decline in the TFR in Korea has been strongly influenced by the recent decline in the total fertility rate, and this influence is expected to continue in the future. In the case of housing costs, in the past, housing sales prices had a relatively small contribution to changes in the total fertility rate compared to the jeonse prices, but their influence is expected to increase in the long term in the future. It has been demonstrated that private education expenses other than housing sale price and Jeonse price also acted as a major cause of the decline in the total fertility rate.

Foreign Stock Investment and Firms's Dividend Policy in Korea (외국인 투자자가 국내 유가증권시장 상장기업의 배당 행태에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 : 다양한 계량경제모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Young-Hwan;Jung, Sung-Chang;Chun, Sun-Eae
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2009
  • As foreign investors' share holdings in Korean firms have dramatically increased since 1998 following the financial deregulation on the limit of foreign stock investment, the concern over the negative impacts the foreign investors would bring on the firms' financial policy has been growing too. Foreign investors were perceived to require the firms of excessive payments of cash dividends sometimes with threat of hostile takeover trials detering the firm from investing its cash flow in the physical facilities and RandD eroding their potential growth capabilities. We examine the impact of foreign investment on the firms' dividend policy using 234 listed firms' panel data over the sample periods of 1998 to 2005 employing various panel regression methodology. Foreign shareholders are found not to be related or even negatively related to the payout ratio(dividend/net income), but positively and statistically significantly related to the ratio of cash dividends to book of asset, negatively to the dividend yields. Considering the payout ratio is the most appropriate measure for the dividend payment, we can not support the arguments that the foreign investors' holdings have induced the excessive dividend level in Korean firms.

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Manufacture of Wood Veneer-Bamboo Zephyr Composite Board: II. Effect of Manufacturing Conditions on Properties of Composite Board (목재 단판-대나무 제퍼 복합보드 제조: II. 복합보드의 성능에 미치는 제조조건의 영향)

  • Roh, Jeang Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 2007
  • This research was performed to investigate the feasibility of bamboo as a raw material for the manufacture of plywood. Wood veneer-bamboo zephyr composite boards (WBCB) were manufactured using keruing (Dipterocarpus sp.) veneers and hachiku bamboo (Phyllostacbys nigra var. henonis Stapf) using various adhesives, and the effect of the method and amount of resin spread on the mechanical properties of the composites were investigated. The WBCB manufactured using polymeric isocyanate (PMDI) showed the best mechanical properties, followed by phenol-formaldehyde resin (PF), phenol-melamine-formaldehyde resin, urea-melamine-formaldehyde resin, and urea-formaldehyde resin. However, considering the operation feasibility as well as mechanical properties, PF resin proved to be the appropriate adhesive for the practical purpose. As the amount of resin spread increased, the mechanical properties of 5-ply WBCB with 12 mm thicknesses manufactured using PF resin tended to increase, and more failure occurred at the interface between veneer and bamboo zephyr than at the interface among bamboo zephyrs. This result suggests that penetration of resin into bamboo zephyr could be the important factor. In this research, the appropriate amount of resin amount was $320g/m^2$. 5-ply WBCBs were manufactured using various methods of resin spread but the effect of the methods on the mechanical properties showed no little difference, which meant that the method of resin spread could be chosen considering the manufacturing conditions and operation feasibility.