• Survey Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-32
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• 2005

The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the efficiency of the suggested systematic sampling from ordered voting places was evaluated in terms of mean prediction error and it turns out that the proposed sampling method outperformed the bellwether polling places sampling. We also calculated the variance of estimator from the proposed sampling, and considered the sample size problem to guarantee the target precision using the design effect of the proposed sample design.

• Survey Research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.33-55
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• 2010

In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.55-79
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• 2007

This article attempts to provide an overview of the exit polls for the 2006 local elections in Korea. The sampling method, sampling error, non-response rate, and prediction error of the exit polls are reviewed. Also, we explore the fact that the propensity to vote varies according to age and gender of voters. In terms of age and gender, the representativeness of the sample is investigated by comparing to the data released by the National Election Commission. Through this empirical research, we show that the exit poll samples are unbalanced in terms of age and this unbalance may be one of the causes of bias occurred in the prediction of the 2006 local election results. The design effects of the sample design implemented for the exit polls are also examined.