• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.31-61
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• Monthly Newsletter
• /
• no.129
• /
• pp.1-4
• /
• 1998

어항투자 확대는 고용창출과 지역경제 활성화에 큰 도움 - 일 토목학회, 리스크방지$\cdot$효율화 이점 커 - 어항공사시공관리의 첫걸음[23]

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.116-116
• /
• 2016

최근 이상기후로 인해 다양한 원인으로 홍수가 발생하고 있으며, 이에 대한 대책으로 가상의 강우 시나리오에 대한 침수예상도가 작성되어 해당지역의 주민들에게 정보를 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 침수예상도가 나타내는 모든 지역에 대해 예산을 투자하여 대비를 할 수 없는 실정이다. 이를 보완하기 위해 본 연구에서는 제방에 대한 수리학적, 지반공학적 위험도, 제방 자체의 성질과 특성을 반영한 취약도를 포함하는 제방 리스크 지도를 작성하여 외수범람에 대한 안전도를 등급화 하였다. 그 결과 침수예상도를 작성하는데 있어 제방 리스크 지도에서 등급이 높은, 즉 리스크가 높은 제방에 대한 재해대책을 수립하는 것이 효율적이다. 본 연구에서는 안성천 유역을 대상으로 제방 리스크 평가를 실시하고, 작성된 제방 리스크 지도를 바탕으로 제방의 붕괴 및 월류시나리오에 대해 1차원 외수범람 해석 및 2차원 침수해석을 실시하여 침수예상도를 작성하였다. 또한 기존의 침수예상도는 침수심에 대한 위험도만을 구분하여 나타내고 있지만, 본 연구에서는 다양한 요소에 대한 침수예상도를 제시함으로써 연구결과물이 재해예방 및 재해경감대책 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• New & Renewable Energy
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.10-17
• /
• 2011

Recently, electricity industry is facing high market uncertainty which has ever had and which increase risks in power market. In this study, we analyze risk factors such as discount rates, initial investment (overnight cost), plant factor, fuel cost, carbon price, etc, for the perspective of investor. For the analysis of risk factors, we used LCOE method. The results of this study show that renewable energy is more affected by plant factor and overnight cost than other risk factors. First, Renewable energy has higher proportion of overnight cost in the total investment than that of other technologies. Second, renewable energy is free of fuel cost and carbon price so plant factor is the most important factor, in other words, competitiveness of renewable energy depends on plant factor. Furthermore, we conducted economic feasibility of wind power and PV in domestic case study. The minimum requirement condition to get profitability is that plant factor 15% and overnight cost \6,000,000/kW and 26%, \2,200,000/kW for PV and Wind Power, respectively.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.30 no.3D
• /
• pp.295-302
• /
• 2010

Since the late 1990s, the BOT mode in China has been extensively used in the water sector in order to attract private investment, improve technical and operational efficiency, and expand the coverage of water services. The BOT mode has been hailed as this provides a win-win structure between the government and private players through formalized procedures and an optimal risk allocation. However, recent market analyses show that some foreign investors are reluctant to participate in the market or even retreat due to uncertainties and risks in the market. This study aims to explore various risks in the Chinese water BOT market based on the thorough literature review, fieldwork, and the case studies on the two wholly foreign-owned BOT water projects: the Chengdu No. 6 and the Shanghai Dachang Water Supply BOT projects. The research results indicate that the Chinese BOT market embraces high risks in political, institutional and legal, and financial systems. The key to a successful takeoff of the BOT mode in the Chinese water market depends on the extent to which the government will be able to remove risky factors in political, institutional and legal, and financing systems. This research outcome will provide a useful reference to the Korean construction companies which consider expanding business to overseas water markets in the form of public private partnership.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.47-56
• /
• 2009

As contemporary society becomes information-oriented, major construction companies have recently invested in information management, but small and medium ones have not. Though the small and medium companies recognize the information management is necessary and important, they don't have an ability to possess technical expertises. The purpose of this study is to develop a Schedule Risk Control System based on blogs using IT and web technologies for construction managers in small and medium construction companies. The system makes a chance to identify risk factors and prepare for responses to settle risks happened in preconstruction phases, and enables the managers and headquarters to predict and handle schedule risks by sharing information about risks on the blogs.

• Vending industry
• /
• v.2 no.7 s.8
• /
• pp.62-65
• /
• 2003

소자본 투자로서의 자판기 사업은 매력적인 영역이다. 최소의 투자로도 부업을 시작할 수 있다는 점이 최대 강점으로 작용한다. 그래서 돈 많은 사람들이 자판기 운영사업에 투자하는 경우보다 주로 서민들의 투자 비중이 높은 특성을 갖는다. 그렇다보니 대개의 자판기 사업정보는 서민을 주 타깃으로 삼고 있다. 그들의 내재된 투자심리를 최대한 수면위로 끌어 올리는 일이 자판기 마케팅의 핵심이다. 소비자 입장에서 보면 알찬 부업에 투자를 해서 기대 수익을 충족시킬 수 있다면 더할 나위가 없을 것이다. 하지만 반대의 경우에 있어 문제가 생긴다. 특히 판매처의 악의적 사기에 가까운 영업행위로 피해를 보게 된다면 소비자의 분노와 절망은 클 수밖에 없다. 지난해부터 이러한 소비자 피해가 크게 늘고 있다. 순진한 소비자들이 그저 업체가 부풀려 제공하는 사업정보에 현혹되어 큰 피해를 보는 경우가 다반사로 발생하고 있는 것. 이제는 소비자들도 자판기 사업성을 제대로 보는 안목을 가져야 할 때이다. 적어도 사기성 짙은 업체와 품목은 가려서 투자할 줄 아는 안목이 있어야 리스크 요인을 최소화할 수 있다. 이러한 취지 하에 소비자 입장에서 자판기 사업정보를 접할 시, 유의할 사항들을 정리해 봤다. 이런 사항들만 조심해도 크게 피해를 보는 경우는 없을 것이다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.14 no.10
• /
• pp.159-166
• /
• 2016

Recent public information project, which has been organized mainly to large companies is a situation that is being reorganized to small and medium-sized systems integration company. However, many of the small and medium-sized companies lack knowledge of the systematic risk management. Thus, in connection with the revenue, it involves a number of problems. Therefore, in this paper, we present a risk element that occurs mainly in the field of the project, providing a model for measuring the risk element by risk level costs associated with this. Through the convergence, we aim at providing a management system that is able to make the project successfully accomplished, predicting the risk that occurs in advance to pursue the project; Based on the proposed model, it is possible to secure a proper size of reserve fund so it is expected to enable companies to ensure the cost of risk analysis.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.11 no.11
• /
• pp.137-144
• /
• 2011

This study explored the risk sharing mechanism in the US TV drama industry. The hollywood system of TV production and distribution can be understood to be the result of the efforts to reduce the uncertainty and the risk of investment. Since the 1990s, the vertical integration of major studios and networks has been one of the core strategies for risk sharing. In the strategy, the most important role of networks is to schedule new series that the affiliated studios produce. Networks also provide the new series their brand value. On the other hand, the most important role of studios in the vertical integrated environment is to provide the affiliated networks the infrastructures for production and distribution, financial management, and product management. In addition, networks keep the right on the series in the secondary markets, and attempt to increase the aggressive investment on new series on the base of the rights. However, such a risky investment can be the potential burden and risk for the networks in the future. This paper shows the importance of the reasonable risk sharing in the television drama industry to the Korean TV drama industry that has experienced the conflict between networks and independent production companies.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.69-92
• /
• 1989

외국인(外國人) 직접투자(直接投資)의 중요성이 국내(國內) 외(外)에서 커지고 있음과 함께 그 투자본국(投資本國)과 대상국(對象國)이 어떻게 결정(決定)되느냐에 대한 학계(學界)의 관심(關心)이 새로워지고 있다. 본(本) 논문(論文)은, 투자본국(投資本國)-대상국(對象國)의 결정문제(決定問題)에 관해, 이를 생산요소(生産要素)의 국가간이동(國家間移動)으로 파악하려는 종래의 국제경제학(國際經濟學), 기업(企業)의 무형자산(無形資産)에서 그 중요한 이유를 찾으려는 산업조직론(産業組織論), 상이(相異)한 통화권(通貨圈)이 주는 투자상(投資上)의 우위(優位) 열위(劣位)를 중시(重視)하는 국제금융론(國際金融論) 등 제(諸) 접근방법(接近方法)들이 시사(示唆)하는 바를 살펴보고, 환율수준(換率水準) 및 그 예상변화율(豫想變化率) 등이 외국인(外國人) 직접투자(直接投資)에 미치는 영향도 재고(再考)하였다. 실증분석(實證分析)에서는 세계(世界)의 대미직접투자(對美直接投資)의 연도별(年度別) 시계열자료(時系列資料)를 사용하여 GNP, 환율수준(換率水準), 예상환율변화(豫想換率變化) 및 환(換)"리스크 프리미엄" 등 거시경제변수(巨視經濟變數)들의 영향을 추정(推定)하여 보았으며, 대체로 유의도(有意度)가 높고 선험적(先驗的)으로 기대하는 바와 같은 영향이 있다는 결과를 얻었다.