• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.155-159
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• 2004

Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.262-266
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• 2016

We investigated the characteristic demographics for visitors to Mujechi bog on Mt. Jungjok, with the purpose of developing a management strategy for the conservation and wise use of the montane wetland. Using daily visitor data from 2007, 2011, and 2015 we extracted and analyzed; visitation date, age, residential areas, purpose of visitation and the time allotted for the visit. The largest age cohort was the decade of the fifties(36.8%/total number of visitors) and followed by the decade of the forties(30.4%). The majority of visitors were from Ulsan(67%), Busan(16.6%), and Yangsan(10.8%). The visitors' primary objectives were to hike Mt. Jungjok(39-64.4%) or view Mujechi bog(18.7-51.8%) during the weekend. People visited more during the weekend than weekdays(F=6.19, p<0.002). In addition, there was a clear seasonality obvious in the monthly visits. The proportion of visitors were present in spring and fall, the month with the highest visitation rate was May at $15.6{\pm}2.8%$($mean{\pm}S.D.$). This increase in May was partly due to the desire to see the Korean azalea in bloom in the spring. Montane bog, like Mujechi, could be highly affected by disturbance(e.g. stamping, sediment inflow) caused by visitors. Therefore, it is suggested, based on the level of visitation that to reduce possible human disturbance effects, that either a seasonal restriction or a yearly alternation of trails be established. Visitors to the wetland should be restricted access to certain areas of the wetland, or be required to go in the accompaniment of a ranger or warden.