• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통과확률

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Development of Stage-Discharge Curve with Hydraulic Characteristics (수리특성을 반영한 수위-유량 관계곡선 개발)

  • Yoon, Hyeon Cheol;Choo, Tai Ho;Lee, Samhee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.385-385
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    • 2016
  • 하천에서 임의의 한 단면을 통과하는 유량을 연속적으로 확보해 하천 수리특성을 파악하는 것이 하천 내 수공구조물 설계, 하도설계 및 하천관리 등에 필요하다. 그런데 자연하천에서 유량에 대한 정보를 연속적으로 생산하는 것은 현실적으로 어렵다. 그래서 매년 하천에서 수위와 유량을 동시에 측정한 결과를 바탕으로 수위-유량 관계곡선식을 만들어 사용하고 있다. 수위-유량 관계 곡선은 유량 자료를 편리하게 제공할 수 있다는 것이 분명 장점이다. 하지만 여기에서는 하천의 다양한 수리적 매개변수를 반영하지 않고 단지 수위와 유량의 두 수리적 인자만을 토대로 관계식을 설정하고 있다. 이에 따라서 고수위, 저수위 등 수위의 변화에 따른 불확실성을 내포하게 된다. 또한 매년 수위 유량 관계식을 재수립해야 하므로 적지 않은 비용 및 인력을 필요로 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 하천 수리적 특성을 반영할 수 있는 확률적 평균유속 접근법을 적용한 하천 평균 유량 산정공식을 제안하였다. 하천의 인위적인 임팩트 여부는 유속의 선형관계에서 ${\pm}10%$으로 설정하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 공식을 통해 산정된 평균유량은 RMSE 4.76으로 기존의 방법 대비 2배 이상의 신뢰성을 나타내는 것으로 밝혀졌다.

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Analysis of the 2015 reform plan of government employees pension system (GEPS) through monte carlo simulations (모의실험을 통한 2015년 공무원 연금제도 개정안의 효과분석)

  • Lee, Jieun;Song, Seongjoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2016
  • Due to the increasing fiscal burden and structural unbalanced premium/benefit costs, the new reform on the government employees pension system (GEPS) was considered even after the recent reform in 2009. This article examines the various effects of recent amendment in 2015 on GEPS using a simple probabilistic model. We consider effects on both sides, the pensioners and the government. First of all, the expected net value of pension payment for an individual employee was calculated based on the supposed survival distribution. The fairness of individual pension holders was compared using the benefit-cost ratio. Secondly, from pension system users' point of view, the default probability and the government subsidy were examined by Monte-carlo simulation. From the simulation experiment, we could see that the 2015 reform plan indeed reduces the default probability and the size of the fiscal burden of government by increasing the premium and decreasing the benefit. However, the size of the effect is not very standout at this moment because the number of new employees who are fully subject to the reform will be much smaller than the number of previous employees for a while. Thus, the effect of the reform is expected to appear in a slow manner.

Radiation Dose of Lens and Thyroid in Linac-based Radiosurgery in Humanoid Phantom (선형가속기형 방사선수술시 인형 팬텀에서 수정체 및 갑상선 선량)

  • Kim, Dae-Yong;Kim, Il-Han
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.517-529
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : Although many studies have investigated the dosimetric aspects of stereotactic radiosurgery in terms of target volume, the absorbed doses at extracranial sites: especially the lens or thyroid - which are sensitive to radiation for deterministic or stochastic effect -have infrequently been reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate what effects the parameters of radiosurgery have on the absorbed doses of the lens and thyroid in patients treated by stereotactic radiosurgery, using a systematic plan in a humanoid phantom. Materials and Methods : Six isocenters were selected and radiosurgery was planned using the stereotactic radiosurgery system which the Department of Therapeutic Radiology at Seoul National University College of Medicine developed. The experimental radiosurgery plan consisted of 6 arc planes per one isocenter, 100 degrees for each arc range and an accessory collimator diameter size of 2 cm. After 250 cGy of irradiation from each arc, the doses absorbed at the lens and thyroid were measured by thermoluminescence dosimetry. Results : The lens dose was 0.23$\pm$0.08$\%$ of the maximum dose for each isocenter when the exit beam did not pass through the lens and was 0.76$\pm$0.12$\%$ of the maximum dose for each isocenter when the exit beam passed through the lens. The thyroid dose was 0.18$\pm$0.05$\%$ of the maximum dose for each isocenter when the exit beam did not pass through the thyroid and was 0.41$\pm$0.04$\%$ of the maximum dose for each isocenter when the exit beam Passed through the thyroid. The passing of the exit beam is the most significant factor of organ dose and the absorbed dose by an arc crossing organ decides 80$\%$ of the total dose. The absorbed doses of the lens and thyroid were larger as the isocenter sites and arc planes were closer to each organ. There were no differences in the doses at the surface and 5 mm depth from the surface in the eyelid and thyroid areas. Conclusion : As the isocenter and arc plane were placed closer to the lens and thyroid, the doses increased. Whether the exit beams passed through the lens or thyroid greatly influenced the lens and thyroid dose. The surface dose of the lens and thyroid consistently represent the tissue dose. Even when the exit beam passes through the lens and thyroid, the doses are less than 1$\%$ of the maximum dose and therefore, are too low to evoke late complications, but nevertheless, we should try to minimize the thyroid dose in children, whenever possible.

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Typhoon-Surge Characteristics and the Highest High Water Levels at the Western Coast (서해안의 태풍해일특성과 고극조위)

  • Kang, Ju Whan;Kim, Yang-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.50-61
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    • 2019
  • The aspects of typhoon-induced surges were classified into three types at the Western coast, and their characteristics were examined. The typhoons OLGA (9907) and KOMPASU (1007) were the representative steep types. As they pass close to the coasts with fast translation velocity, the time of maximum surge is unrelated to tidal phase. However, typhoons PRAPIROON (0012) and BOLAVEN (1215) were the representative mild types, which pass at a long distance to the coasts with slow translation velocity, and were characterized by having maximum surge time is near low tide. Meanwhile, typhoons MUIFA (1109) and WINNIE (9713) can be classified into mild types, but they do not show the characteristics of the mild type. Thus they are classified into propagative type, which are propagated from the outside. Analyzing the annual highest high water level data, the highest water level ever had been recorded when the WINNIE (9713) had attacked. At that time, severe astronomical tide condition overlapped modest surge. Therefore, if severe astronomical tide encounter severe surge in the future, tremendous water level may be formed with very small probability. However, considering that most of the huge typhoons are mild type, time of maximum surge tends to occur at low tide. In case of estimating the extreme water level by a numerical simulation, it is necessary not only to apply various tide conditions and accompanying tide-modulated surge, but also to scrutinize typhoon parameters such as translation velocity and so on.

Characteristics of Tsunami Propagation through the Korean Straits and Statistical Description of Tsunami Wave Height (대한해협에서의 지진해일 전파특성과 지진해일고의 확률적 기술)

  • Cho, Yong-Jun;Lee, Jae-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2006
  • We numerically studied tsunami propagation characteristics through Korean Straits based on nonlinear shallow water equation, a robust wave driver of the near field tsunamis. Tsunamis are presumed to be generated by the earthquake in Tsuhima-Koto fault line. The magnitude of earthquake is chosen to be 7.5 on Richter scale, which corresponds to most plausible one around Korean peninsula. It turns out that it takes only 60 minutes for leading waves to cross Korean straits, which supports recently raised concerns at warning system might be malfunctioned due to the lack of evacuation time. We also numerically obtained the probability of tsunami inundation of various levels, usually referred as tsunami hazard, along southern coastal area of Korean Peninsula based on simple seismological and Kajiura (1963)'s hydrodynamic model due to tsunami-generative earthquake in Tsuhima-Koto fault line. Using observed data at Akita and Fukaura during Okushiri tsunami in 1993, we verified probabilistic model of tsunami height proposed in this study. We believe this inundation probability of various levels to give valuable information for the amendment of current building code of coastal disaster prevention system to tame tsunami attack.

Fatigue Life Evaluation for Used Rail on Track Types (궤도형식별 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Lim, Hyung-Jun;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2017
  • In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.

Performance Analysis of VDL Mode-2 Transceiver and Generation of the Narrow Band Digital Modulated Signals (VDL Mode-2 송·수신기 성능분석 및 협대역 디지털 변조신호 생성)

  • Gim, Jong-Man;Kim, Tae-Sik;Kim, In-Kyu;Kim, Hyoun-Kyoung
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the Bit Error Ratio (BER) performances of the D8PSK modulation schemes for VDL Mode-2 are analyzed according to the matched and unmatched cases of the channel filters. The carrier frequency and phase offset effects are analyzed with unmatched case. Generally in digital transmission techniques, the Root Raised Cosine filters which are used as channel filters are applied to both sides at transmitter and receiver in order to achieve no ISI, but in VDL Mode-2, the Raised Cosine Filter is used only in transmission section and the receiver section uses general low pass filter, therefore we could not achieve ISI reduction effects but can have better spectrum quality. From the simulation results, the error probability is increased slightly (1~2dB) with use of un-matched channel filter, we got the conclusions that carrier phase offset do not effect to bit error ratio, but the frequency offset effect is so serious. Finally, narrow band D8PSK modulation signals are generated by the use of Digital Up-Converter and then its features are compared with analog modulator.

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Digital Image Watermarking using Inner Product and Adaptive Quantization (내적과 적응성 양자화를 이용한 디지털 영상의 워터마킹 방법)

  • 이승욱;김진호;호요성
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.50-57
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    • 2001
  • A digital watermarking is a newly developed scheme to embed invisible or inaudible information Into the host data in order to insist the copyright of the owner or the creator. This paper describes a robust data embedding scheme that employs inner product and adaptive quantization. Compared to the previous works for digital watermarking, our proposed scheme can embed relatively large amount of Information, since a secrete key Is not directly relaxed to the watermark data. A secret key is used for the design of random direction vectors. which are taken Inner product with the DCT transformed feature set data. In odder to achieve robustness against malicious attacks. we exploit the Properties of human visual system In designing the random direction vectors which behave as embedded noises. Experimental results show that we can recover the embedded information without utilizing the original host data. We also demonstrate that the ownership assertion is possible even though The watermarked data may undergo common signal processing operations, such as JPEG compression. clopping. and filtering.

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Design and Performance Analysis of CPSK Transmitter for RF-CBTC System in ISM Band (RF-CBTC 시스템을 위한 ISM 대역에서의 CPSK 송신기의 설계 및 성능분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Cheol
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2017
  • The CBTC(Communication based Train Control) system employed on 2.4GHz ISM band adopt the IEEE802.11.x standard. Therefor communication time delay, distortion and data losses will be produced. To overcome these problems, CPSK(Continuous Phase shift keying) modulated DS/SS(Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum) transmitter with 908MHz carrier frequency is proposed. Through the eye diagram and scatter diagram the performance is analysed. And the phase noise characteristic of the local oscillator is measured about 60dBc/Hz, this means that the phase noise performance is very good compared to the signal. Reference frequency suppression of the 2nd local oscillator is 50dB below compared to the signal. Through the polarities of the complementary signal equally probable, the line spectrum of the output spectrum is eliminated. The nonlinear effects which introduce the spectral spreading or spectral regeneration is reduced remarkably.

A Study of Vein Identification System using 2D-Gabor Filter for the Vessel USN Entrance/Exit Management (선박USN 출입관리를 위한 2차원 Gabor 필터를 이용한 정맥 인식 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Myeong-Soo;Lee, Seong-Ro;Sin, Sang-Woo;Jang, Kyung-Sik;Jung, Min-A
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.11A
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    • pp.1190-1196
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we propose the biometrics system using hand vein pattern. This system is for management about person's entrance/exit in vessel USN. we select the biometrics method using hand vein pattern as adoptable method to vessel USN environment. Our experimental results show that preprocessing using two dimensional gabor filter achieves performance improvements over high pass filtering. Also, we compared our method with measured FAR(False Acceptance Rate) and FRR(False Rejection Rate) using pattern matching, the results show low error rate over high pass filtering. As a result, we verify the adoptability of biometrics system using hand vein pattern in management of person's entrance/exit in vessel.