• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계예측모델

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Posture features and emotion predictive models for affective postures recognition (감정 자세 인식을 위한 자세특징과 감정예측 모델)

  • Kim, Jin-Ok
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2011
  • Main researching issue in affective computing is to give a machine the ability to recognize the emotion of a person and to react it properly. Efforts in that direction have mainly focused on facial and oral cues to get emotions. Postures have been recently considered as well. This paper aims to discriminate emotions posture by identifying and measuring the saliency of posture features that play a role in affective expression. To do so, affective postures from human subjects are first collected using a motion capture system, then emotional features in posture are described with spatial ones. Through standard statistical techniques, we verified that there is a statistically significant correlation between the emotion intended by the acting subjects, and the emotion perceived by the observers. Discriminant Analysis are used to build affective posture predictive models and to measure the saliency of the proposed set of posture features in discriminating between 6 basic emotional states. The evaluation of proposed features and models are performed using a correlation between actor-observer's postures set. Quantitative experimental results show that proposed set of features discriminates well between emotions, and also that built predictive models perform well.

Development of Empirical Model for the Air Pollutant Dispersion in Urban Street Canyons Using Wind Tunnel Test (풍동실험을 이용한 도시거리협곡에서의 대기오염확산모델의 개발)

  • Park, Seong-Kyu;Kim, Shin-Do;Lee, Hee-Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.852-858
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    • 2005
  • Modeling techniques for air quality are useful tools in air quality management. Especially, the air quality in urban area is significantly influenced by local surroundings such as buildings and traffic. When considering the air quality in a street canyon, which is usually filmed by a series of consecutive buildings and a street, currently available air dispersion model have a number of limitations to predict the air quality properly. In this study, it is aimed to propose an empirical model for the air quality in urban street canyons. A series of wind tunnel tests, followed by statistical analysis, were conducted. In conclusion, it is found that a wide street canyon and a perpendicular external wind to the street canyon are beneficial to achieve an enhanced air quality in street canyon environment. The model prediction using the proposed model also shows reliable correlations to the wind tunnel test results.

Probabilistic Evaluation on Prediction Accuracy of the Strains by Double Surface and Single Surface Constitutive Model (확률론에 의환 Double Surface와 Single Surface 구성모델의 변형을 예측 정도의 평가)

  • Jeong, Jin Seob;Song, Young Sun;Kim, Chan Kee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 1994
  • A probabilistic method was employed to compare the prediction accuracy of axial and volumetric strains of Lade's double surface model with that of single surface model. Several experiments were conducted to examine the variabilities of soil parameters for two models using Back-ma river sand. Mean values and standard deviations of soil parameters obtained from experimental data were used for the evaluation of the uncertainty of analyzed strains by the first order approximation. It is shown that the variabilities of parameters in the single surface model are more consistent than those of the double surface model. However, in the accuracy of axial strain by probabilistic analysis, double surface model is more stable than single surface model. It is also shown that two models are excellent in view of the accuracy of the volumetric strain. The method given in this paper may be effectively utilized to estimate the constitutive model because other results of the comparison of two models coincide with those of this paper.

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Understanding the Association Between Cryptocurrency Price Predictive Performance and Input Features (암호화폐 종가 예측 성능과 입력 변수 간의 연관성 분석)

  • Park, Jaehyun;Seo, Yeong-Seok
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2022
  • Recently, cryptocurrency has attracted much attention, and price prediction studies of cryptocurrency have been actively conducted. Especially, efforts to improve the prediction performance by applying the deep learning model are continuing. LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model, which shows high performance in time series data among deep learning models, is applied in various views. However, it shows low performance in cryptocurrency price data with high volatility. Although, to solve this problem, new input features were found and study was conducted using them, there is a lack of study on input features that drop predictive performance. Thus, in this paper, we collect the recent trends of six cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum and analyze effects of input features on the cryptocurrency price predictive performance through statistics and deep learning. The results of the experiment showed that cryptocurrency price predictive performance the best when open price, high price, low price, volume and price were combined except for rate of closing price fluctuation.

Ensemble Learning-Based Prediction of Good Sellers in Overseas Sales of Domestic Books and Keyword Analysis of Reviews of the Good Sellers (앙상블 학습 기반 국내 도서의 해외 판매 굿셀러 예측 및 굿셀러 리뷰 키워드 분석)

  • Do Young Kim;Na Yeon Kim;Hyon Hee Kim
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.173-178
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    • 2023
  • As Korean literature spreads around the world, its position in the overseas publishing market has become important. As demand in the overseas publishing market continues to grow, it is essential to predict future book sales and analyze the characteristics of books that have been highly favored by overseas readers in the past. In this study, we proposed ensemble learning based prediction model and analyzed characteristics of the cumulative sales of more than 5,000 copies classified as good sellers published overseas over the past 5 years. We applied the five ensemble learning models, i.e., XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, Adaboost, LightGBM, and Random Forest, and compared them with other machine learning algorithms, i.e., Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, and Deep Learning. Our experimental results showed that the ensemble algorithm outperforms other approaches in troubleshooting imbalanced data. In particular, the LightGBM model obtained an AUC value of 99.86% which is the best prediction performance. Among the features used for prediction, the most important feature is the author's number of overseas publications, and the second important feature is publication in countries with the largest publication market size. The number of evaluation participants is also an important feature. In addition, text mining was performed on the four book reviews that sold the most among good-selling books. Many reviews were interested in stories, characters, and writers and it seems that support for translation is needed as many of the keywords of "translation" appear in low-rated reviews.

Development and Verification of NEMO based Regional Storm Surge Forecasting System (NEMO 모델을 이용한 지역 폭풍해일예측시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • La, Nary;An, Byoung Woong;Kang, KiRyong;Chang, Pil-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2020
  • In this study we established an operational storm-surge system for the northwestern pacific ocean, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean). The system consists of the tide and the surge models. For more accurate storm surge prediction, it can be completed not only by applying more precise depth data, but also by optimal parameterization at the boundaries of the atmosphere and ocean. To this end, we conducted several sensitivity experiments related to the application of available bathymetry data, ocean bottom friction coefficient, and wind stress and air pressure on the ocean surface during August~September 2018 and the case of typhoon SOULIK. The results of comparison and verification are presented here, and they are compared with POM (Princeton Ocean Model) based Regional Tide Surge forecasting Model (RTSM). The results showed that the RTSM_NEMO model had a 29% and 20% decrease in Bias and RMSE respectively compared to the RTSM_POM model, and that the RTSM_NEMO model had a lower overall error than the RTSM_POM model for the case of typhoon SOULIK.

Yoga Poses Image Classification and Interpretation Using Explainable AI (XAI) (XAI 를 활용한 설명 가능한 요가 자세 이미지 분류 모델)

  • Yu Rim Park;Hyon Hee Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.590-591
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    • 2023
  • 최근 사람들의 건강에 대한 관심이 많아지고 다양한 운동 컨텐츠가 확산되면서 실내에서 운동을 할 수 있는 기회가 많아졌다. 하지만, 전문가의 도움없이 정확하지 않은 동작을 수행하다 큰 부상을 입을 위험성이 높다. 본 연구는 CNN 기반 요가 자세 분류 모델을 생성하고 설명가능 인공지능 기술을 적용하여 예측 결과에 대한 해석을 제시한다. 사용자에게 설명성과 신뢰성 있는 모델을 제공하여 자신에게 맞게 올바른 자세를 결정할 수 있고, 무리한 동작으로 부상을 입을 확률 또한 낮출 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

Analysis on Temporal Pattern of Location Data with Time Series Model (시계열 모델을 활용한 위치 데이터의 시간적 패턴 분석)

  • Song, Ha Yoon;Lee, Da Som;Jung, Jun Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.768-771
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    • 2021
  • 시계열 분석은 이전 시점들의 데이터를 기반으로 미래 시점의 데이터를 예측하는 기술을 제공하며, SARIMA는 이러한 시계열 분석에서 활용되는 통계 모델의 일종이다. 본 연구는 직접 수집한 실시간 위치 데이터에 SARIMA를 적용하여 개인의 이동 패턴을 추출하고 이를 예측에 활용하는 전반적인 프로세스를 제작하였다. 첫째, DB에 업로드된 위치 데이터를 비지도 학습의 일종인 EM-clustering을 활용해 핵심 방문 장소들로부터의 거리에 따라 군집화했다. 둘째, 해당 장소에 입장하고 퇴장하는 시간 간격에 SARIMA를 적용해 주기성을 추출했다. 마지막으로, 이 주기성들을 군집의 중요도에 따라 순차적으로 분석하여 유의미한 예측 결과를 도출해냈다.

A Study on AI-Based Electricity Demand Forecasting - Focusing on Ensemble and Regression Methods- (인공지능 기반 전력 수요 예측 방법에 관한 고찰 -앙상블 및 회귀 알고리즘을 기반으로-)

  • Kim, Yoon-Myung;Yun, Ju-Young;Kim, Min-Joo;Chae, Gi-Ung;Choi, Yu-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.857-859
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 인공지능 기반의 전력 수요 데이터 예측 모델을 구축하고 이를 최종적으로 웹의 형태로 구현하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 기상청 데이터의 기후 요소를 매개변수로 삼아 전력 수요를 예측하고, 그 결과를 가시적으로 시각화하는 것까지의 전 과정을 최대한 간결하게 진행하였다. 추후 한층 더 발전된 모델을 구축할 수 있다면, 전력시장의 효율성과 경제성을 향상시켜 불필요한 에너지 낭비를 미연에 방지할 수 있을 것이라고 기대한다. 나아가 시스템 상용화를 위해 계속 연구 활동에 정진할 수 있을 것이다.

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy using Simulated Annealing-based Random Fores (시뮬레이티드 어니일링 기반의 랜덤 포레스트를 이용한 기업부도예측)

  • Park, Hoyeon;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 2018
  • Predicting a company's financial bankruptcy is traditionally one of the most crucial forecasting problems in business analytics. In previous studies, prediction models have been proposed by applying or combining statistical and machine learning-based techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent prediction model based on the simulated annealing which is one of the well-known optimization techniques. The simulated annealing is known to have comparable optimization performance to the genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, since there has been little research on the prediction and classification of business decision-making problems using the simulated annealing, it is meaningful to confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in business analytics. In this study, we use the combined model of simulated annealing and machine learning to select the input features of the bankruptcy prediction model. Typical types of combining optimization and machine learning techniques are feature selection, feature weighting, and instance selection. This study proposes a combining model for feature selection, which has been studied the most. In order to confirm the superiority of the proposed model in this study, we apply the real-world financial data of the Korean companies and analyze the results. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the naïve model. Notably, the performance is significantly improved as compared with the traditional decision tree, random forests, artificial neural network, SVM, and logistic regression analysis.