• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.62 no.3
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• pp.5-29
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• 2010

This study examines the welfare dynamics in Korea under the scheme of National Basic Livelihood Protection Program(NBLP). Data are drawn from Korean Welfare Panel study 2005~2007. Main findings are summarized as follows. First, the exit probabilities show a declining tendency with time on welfare increases. If the exit probabilities indeed decline over time, the earlier years on welfare deserve more interest in the policy perspective. Moreover, the vast majority of recipients are long-termers. Further efforts are needed to increase self-sufficiency through providing genuine opportunity and necessary support for recipients. Second, out-of-poverty exit and out-of-system exit are quite different in their properties. The results from the multivariate analysis confirm that the dropouts through out-of-system exit are virtually the same with those who remain on welfare. These results imply that the government should not resort to the negative policy proposals such as time limit and strengthening sanctions. Third, several explanatory variables have anticipated effect on welfare exit probabilities. Age, education, health, marital status, the presence of children, employment status have a certain level of impact on exit, with the only exception of gender. Since the identification of the determinants can facilitate sensible targeting on the potential leavers, these results have some implications on policy proposals.