• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.9
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• pp.959-967
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• 2008

Disaggregation techniques are widely used to transform observed daily rainfall values into hourly ones, which serve as important inputs for flood forecasting purposes. However, an important limitation with most of the existing disaggregation techniques is that they treat the rainfall process as a realization of a stochastic process, thus raising questions on the lack of connection between the structure of the models on one hand and the underlying physics of the rainfall process on the other. The present study introduces a nonlinear deterministic (and specifically chaotic) framework to study the dynamic characteristics of rainfall distributions across different temporal scales (i.e. weights between scales), and thus the possibility of rainfall disaggregation. Rainfall data from the Seoul station (recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration) are considered for the present investigation, and weights between only successively doubled resolutions (i.e., 24-hr to 12-hr, 12-hr to 6-hr, 6-hr to 3-hr) are analyzed. The correlation dimension method is employed to investigate the presence of chaotic behavior in the time series of weights, and a local approximation technique is employed for rainfall disaggregation. The results indicate the presence of chaotic behavior in the dynamics of weights between the successively doubled scales studied. The modeled (disaggregated) rainfall values are found to be in good agreement with the observed ones in their overall matching (e.g. correlation coefficient and low mean square error). While the general trend (rainfall amount and time of occurrence) is clearly captured, an underestimation of the maximum values are found.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.425-437
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• 2013

This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.13-23
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• 2010

According to recent researches on climate change, the global warming is obvious to increase rainfall intensity. Damage caused by extreme hydrologic events due to global change is steadily getting bigger and bigger. Recently, frequently occurring heavy rainfalls surely affect the trend of rainfall observations. Probability precipitation estimation method used in designing and planning hydrological resources assumes that rainfall data is stationary. The stationary probability precipitation estimation method could be very weak to abnormal rainfalls occurred by climate change, because stationary probability precipitation estimation method cannot reflect increasing trend of rainfall intensity. This study analyzed temporal variation of trend in rainfall time series at 51 stations which are not significant for statistical trend tests. After modeling rainfall time series with maintaining observed statistical characteristics, this study also estimated whether rainfall data is significant for the statistical trend test in near future. It was found that 13 stations among sample stations will have trend within 10 years. The results indicate that non-stationary probability precipitation estimation method must be applied to sufficiently consider increase trend of rainfall.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.81-88
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• 2010

The analysis and synthesis of various types of hydrologic variables such as precipitation, surface runoff, and discharge are usually required in planning and management of water resources. These hydrologic variables are mostly represented using stochastic models. One of which is the autoregressive model, that gives promising results in time series modeling. This study is an application of this model, which aimed to determine the AR model that best represents the historical monthly streamflow of the two gauging stations, namely Andong Dam and Imha Dam, both located in the upper Nakdong River Basin. AR(3) model was found to be the best model for both gauging stations. Parameters of the determined order of AR model ($\phi_1$, $\phi_2$ and $\phi_3$) were also estimated. Using several diagnostic tests, the efficiency of the determined AR(3) model was tested. These tests indicated the accuracy of the determined AR(3) model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.3 s.164
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• pp.187-198
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• 2006

Korea Water Resources Corporation(KOWACO) has developed the Integrated Real-time Water Management System(IRWMS) that calculates monthly optimal ending target storages by using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming(SSDP) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction(ESP) running on the $1^{st}$ day of each month. This system, however, has a shortcoming: it cannot reflect the hydrolmeteorologic variations in the middle of the month. To overcome this drawback, in this study updated ESP forecasts three times each month by using the observed precipitation series from the $1^{st}$ day of the month to the forecast day and the historical precipitation ensemble for the remaining days. The improved accuracy and its effect on the reservoir operations were quantified as a result. SSDP/ESP21 that reflects within-a-month hydrolmeteorologic states saves $1\;X\;10^6\;m^3$ in water shortage on average than SSDP/ESP01. In addition, the simulation result demonstrated that the effect of ESP accuracy on the reduction of water shortage became more important when the total runoff was low during the drawdown period.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.169-179
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• 1999

The present study was undertaken to classify and describe the spring naturalized plant communities in old-Andong city by the methodology of the ZM school of phytosociology. As a result, the vegetation was classified into the six communities and two subcommunities: A. Bromus tectorum community A-a. Bromus japonicus subcommunity, A-b. Melica onoei subcommunity; B. Poa pratensis community; C. Rumex crispus community; D. Oenothera lamarckiana community; E. Ambrosia artemisiifolia var. eiatior community; F. Rumex conglomeratus community. The total taxa of the naturalized plant communities consisted of 31 families, 86 genera, 114 species and 13 varieties. Of which the taxa of the naturalized plant species consisted of 8 families, 21 genera, 25 species and 1 variety. The result of Bray-Curtis ordination revealed that the plots suveyed were arranged according largely to the vegetation units of' the communities. Also the interspecific affinity was examined by an analysis of interspecific association and the main component species in the communities were divided into two groups. The naturalized rate was higher in the communitise affected by strong human impacts, while was lower in the communities affected relatively less by human impacts. On the other hand the seasonal changes of the communities and the naturalized rate between the spring and the autumn were investigated. Many naturalized communities present in Spring were replaced by the other native ruderal communitues in the Autumn. The naturalized rate based on the dominance was largely decreased over from the spring to the Autumn.

• Journal of Korea Soil Environment Society
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.13-29
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• 1998

Recently, It is increasing popularity to research on the soil remediation in aspect of management by reason of the hazardous impact on the contaminated soil in Korea. It was investigated high levels of arsenic salts in soil near abandoned five mines(Darak, Daduk, Jingok, Dalsung, Ilkwang) located in Youngnam area. Arsenic, classified as group A(Human Carcinogens) from IRIS, have shown statistically significant increment in skin cancer with oral exposure. This paper was conducted to predict excess cancer risk value (to the skin cancer) based on multiple pathway such as soil ingestion, dermal uptake and food(plant) ingestion contaminated by arsenic, and also, to identify the remedial goal regarded in future land use. The mine having the highest arsenic level was Daduk(mean : 1950mg/kg) and the next rank was Jingok(1690mg/kg), Ilkwang(352.37mg/kg), Dalsung(86.08mg/kg), Darak(0.83mg/kg). The chronic daily intake to the multiple exposure were calculated using Monte-Carlo simulation regarded in future land use and used q: value was $1.5(mg/kg/day)^{-1}$ to the oral proposed by IRIS(1997). The computated excess cancer risk 95th value to all the mine regarding future land use as residential and rural area were more than $10^{-4}$. If the level of acceptable risk is aimed for 1$\times$$10^{-6}$, it could be used Darak as commercial and industrial area without soil remediation due to the lowest risk value(6$\times$$10^{-8}$ and 3$\times$$10^{-8}$). Computated remedial goal based on 1$\times$$10^{-6}$ of acceptable risk to the future land use as the residential, rural, commercial and industrial area were 0.02mg/kg, 0.003mg/kg, 97.31mg/kg and 194.62mg/kg, respectively.