• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.558-567
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• 2016

In the case of France which was successful in improving the ultra-low fertility rates of birth and South Korea, from the late 1980s, the birth rate fell continuously. In 1994, total fertility rate fell 1.66, but thanks to the active family policy of the government in the mid 1990s, it grew and maintained 2.0 average since the year 2008 until now. This study examined carefully how France was not classified as advanced welfare state, overcame the obstacles of low fertility problem in the socio-economic and institutional side and trying to get some suggestions from South Korea in which it of such problems in the field of low fertility.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.85-111
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• 2010

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.137-163
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• 2010

This study examines how individual, familial, and social factors are associated with persistent very low fertility in Busan Metropolitan City and contemplates family-friendly environments and social strategies for fertility increase. Fertility decline in Busan Metropolitan City recorded the lowest birth rate nationwide recent years among metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea. Birthrates are low partly because of multiple factors such as high age at childbearing and at marriage, decline in marriage, high divorce rate, the phenomena of marriage avoidance among unmarried women, traditional gender role attitude of men, low domestic work participation of husbands among dual career couples, low marital satisfaction and family life satisfaction, abortion, and more broader attiributes such as family policy, availability of childcare, education expenses, and family-friendlyness of a society. In addition, women of dual career couples in Busan strained from domestic work overload under traditional norms of gender role, and marital satisfaction recorded below average nationwide along with espeacially low marital satisfaction of wives compared to that of husbands. Major aspects of implications and considerations for higher birth rate and family friendly policy in Busan are discussed.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.179-205
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• 2007

Demography has grown as an independent academic discipline in Korea during past 30 years by describing and examining changes of population components such as fertility, mortality, migration, and census, and the "Population Association of Korea" stands on the midst of the growth. High fertility of the 1960s and 70s, which was considered as a hurdle of economic growth, particularly boosted the prosper of demography in Korea by inviting a number of non-demographers as well as demographers to population-related research projects. However, as fertility gradually decreases and becomes no-threat anymore beginning the early 1990s, social interests in demography has withered to lose its academic soils in Korea. A recent phenomenon of the lowest low fertility has revived social need and interest in demography. Unfortunately, once curtailed capacity of Korean demography is not sufficient enough to provide academic and/or practical resources now. This research is conducted to cerebrate the 30th anniversary of "Population Association of Korea" and to seek ways to cultivate academic soils again and to rebuild the capacity of demography in Korea. To do this, this research examines the causes of current struggles of Korean demography by comparing its academic environments with that of America, and offers suggestions for its brighter future.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.38-47
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• 2024

Background: Korea's population of children and adolescents has decreased by 2.88 million over the past decade and is expected to decline further due to the unprecedented low birth rate. In the fee-for-service compensation system, the decline in the pediatric population relates directly to the profit decrease in the pediatric clinics. This study analyzed whether the worsening profits of pediatric clinics impacted their closure. Methods: We built annual data for pediatric and other department clinics (internal medicine, otolaryngology, and family medicine) using the status of medical institute and health insurance claims data from 2012 to 2022. Then, we analyzed whether institutional variables such as annual profit and regional variables (Herfindahl-Hirschman index, the number of clinics per 100,000, etc.) affected the closure of clinics. The methods used in this study are descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Odds ratios for each variable were estimated by generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results: The closure rate of pediatric clinics was 2.66%-7.04% in 2012-2022, which was consistently higher than those of internal medicine, otolaryngology, and family medicine clinics. The profit gap per institution between the pediatric and the other clinics grew from 126 million won in 2012 to 245 million won in 2019. In the GEE analysis, profit decrease compared to the previous year with lower profit was the main factor that increased the closure of pediatric and other department clinics. After adjusting profit-related variables, the decrease in the pediatric population itself did not relate to the closure of pediatric clinics. The number of pediatric clinics or monopolies also did not affect the closure of pediatric clinics. Conclusion: The worsening profit is the crucial factor for the closure of pediatric clinics, while the pediatric population is decreasing. For this reason, it is necessary to actively seek ways to maintain a stable treatment system for children and adolescents.