• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.5 s.121
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• pp.353-359
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• 2007

Effective plan and operation managements can be established in advance if the traffic volume of container ship will be forecasted in the trend for container port's cargo volume to increase. At the viewpoint for marine traffic the number of incoming and outgoing container ship can be presumed in the long run and organised rational plan to deal the demand of marine traffic on the basis. Therefore, the paper estimated the future traffic volume of incoming and outgoing container ship for Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon port on a forecasting data basis of container volume suggested in the national ports base plan. The trends of volume per ship on container were estimated with ARIMA models and seasonal index was computed. Thus the traffic volume of container ship in the future was estimated computing with volume per ship in 2011,2015, and 2020 respectively.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.425-431
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• 2008

The future cargo transportation and traffic volume on container in Gwangyang port was forecasted by using univariate time series models in this research. And the container ship traffic was produced. The constructed models all were most adapted to Winters' additive models with a trend and seasonal change. The cargo transportation on container in Gwangyang port was estimated each about 2,756 thousand TEU and 4,470 thousand TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 7.4%, 16.2% compared with 2007. The volume per ship on container was estimated each about 675TEU and 801TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 30.3%, 54.6% compared with 2007. Also, traffic volume on container incoming in Gwangyang Port was prospected each about 4,078ships and 5,921ships in 2011 and 2015.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.455-462
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• 2007

This paper estimated the future traffic volume incoming and outgoing in Incheon port, and analyzed the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon. The cargo traffic in 2020 will increase twice as much as in 2005 according to the national ports basis plan. The maritime traffic will increase greatly consequently. Also, MOMAF has operated tidal current signal operation center to prevent marine accidents caused by current influence on vessels navigating through Incheon. However the quantitative effect is not known because there is no analysis about its value. Therefore the value of information serviced by tidal current signal operation center in Incheon was calculated with contingent valuation method(CVM), and the information value was analyzed considering future traffic in this study. Thus, the annual information value was calculated at about $170{\sim}280$ million won, considered traffic volume using the information of tidal current directly in 2020 since 2006.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.48
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• pp.147-176
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• 2016

Korean Peninsula is surrounded by ocean on three sides. Because of this geographical quality over 97% of export and import volumes are exchange by sea. Foreign ship and international passenger vessels carries foreign tourist and globalization and internationalization increases this trends. Leisure population grows with national income increase and interest of ocean. And accidents and incidents rates are also increases. Korea Coast Guard's jurisdiction area is 4.5 times bigger than our country. The length of coastline is 14,963km including islands. One patrol vessel is responsible for 24,068km and one coast guard substation is responsible for 94km. Efficient patrol activities can not be provided. This research focus on this problem. Analyze the status and trends of maritime crime and suggest efficient patrol activities. To deal with increasing maritime crime rate this study suggest to use geographical profile method which developed early 1900s in USA. This geographical profile analyse the spatial characteristic and mapping this result. With this result potential crime zone can be predicted. One of the result is hot spot management which gives data about habitual crime zone. In Korea National Police Agency adopt this method in 2008 and apply on patrol and crime prevention activity by analysis of different criteria. Korea National Police Agency analyse the crime rate with crime type, crime zone and potential crime zone, and hourly, regionally criteria. Korea Coast Guard need to adopt this method and apply on maritime to make maritime crime map, which shows type of crime with regional, periodical result. With this geographical profiling we can set a Criminal Point which shows the place where the crime often occurs. The Criminal Points are set with the data of numerous rates such as homicide, robbery, burglary, missing, collision which happened in ocean. Set this crime as the major crime and manage the data more thoroughly. I expect to enhance the reinforcement of marine crime using this Criminal Points. Because this points will give us efficient way to prevent the maritime crime by placing the patrol vessel where they needed most.