• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.157-176
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• 2018

The purpose of this research is to develop a detection model for companies designated as administrative issue in KOSDAQ market using financial data. Administration issue designates the companies with high potential for delisting, which gives them time to overcome the reasons for the delisting under certain restrictions of the Korean stock market. It acts as an alarm to inform investors and market participants of which companies are likely to be delisted and warns them to make safe investments. Despite this importance, there are relatively few studies on administration issues prediction model in comparison with the lots of studies on bankruptcy prediction model. Therefore, this study develops and verifies the detection model of the companies designated as administrative issue using financial data of KOSDAQ companies. In this study, logistic regression and decision tree are proposed as the data mining models for detecting administrative issues. According to the results of the analysis, the logistic regression model predicted the companies designated as administrative issue using three variables - ROE(Earnings before tax), Cash flows/Shareholder's equity, and Asset turnover ratio, and its overall accuracy was 86% for the validation dataset. The decision tree (Classification and Regression Trees, CART) model applied the classification rules using Cash flows/Total assets and ROA(Net income), and the overall accuracy reached 87%. Implications of the financial indictors selected in our logistic regression and decision tree models are as follows. First, ROE(Earnings before tax) in the logistic detection model shows the profit and loss of the business segment that will continue without including the revenue and expenses of the discontinued business. Therefore, the weakening of the variable means that the competitiveness of the core business is weakened. If a large part of the profits is generated from one-off profit, it is very likely that the deterioration of business management is further intensified. As the ROE of a KOSDAQ company decreases significantly, it is highly likely that the company can be delisted. Second, cash flows to shareholder's equity represents that the firm's ability to generate cash flow under the condition that the financial condition of the subsidiary company is excluded. In other words, the weakening of the management capacity of the parent company, excluding the subsidiary's competence, can be a main reason for the increase of the possibility of administrative issue designation. Third, low asset turnover ratio means that current assets and non-current assets are ineffectively used by corporation, or that asset investment by corporation is excessive. If the asset turnover ratio of a KOSDAQ-listed company decreases, it is necessary to examine in detail corporate activities from various perspectives such as weakening sales or increasing or decreasing inventories of company. Cash flow / total assets, a variable selected by the decision tree detection model, is a key indicator of the company's cash condition and its ability to generate cash from operating activities. Cash flow indicates whether a firm can perform its main activities(maintaining its operating ability, repaying debts, paying dividends and making new investments) without relying on external financial resources. Therefore, if the index of the variable is negative(-), it indicates the possibility that a company has serious problems in business activities. If the cash flow from operating activities of a specific company is smaller than the net profit, it means that the net profit has not been cashed, indicating that there is a serious problem in managing the trade receivables and inventory assets of the company. Therefore, it can be understood that as the cash flows / total assets decrease, the probability of administrative issue designation and the probability of delisting are increased. In summary, the logistic regression-based detection model in this study was found to be affected by the company's financial activities including ROE(Earnings before tax). However, decision tree-based detection model predicts the designation based on the cash flows of the company.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.243-264
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• 2018

Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.1-19
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• 2018

Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.21-35
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• 2018

Since the introduction of MP3 players, CD recordings have gradually been vanishing, and the music consuming environment of music users is shifting to mobile devices. The introduction of smart devices has increased the utilization of music through music playback, mass storage, and search functions that are integrated into smartphones and tablets. At the time of initial MP3 player supply, the bitrate of the compressed music contents generally was 128 Kbps. However, as increasing of the demand for high quality music, sound quality of 384 Kbps appeared. Recently, music content of FLAC (Free License Audio Codec) format using lossless compression method is becoming popular. The download service of many music sites in Korea has classified by unlimited download with technical protection and limited download without technical protection. Digital Rights Management (DRM) technology is used as a technical protection measure for unlimited download, but it can only be used with authenticated devices that have DRM installed. Even if music purchased by the user, it cannot be used by other devices. On the contrary, in the case of music that is limited in quantity but not technically protected, there is no way to enforce anyone who distributes it, and in the case of high quality music such as FLAC, the loss is greater. In this paper, the author proposes an audio watermarking technology for copyright protection of high quality stereo music. Two kinds of information, "Copyright" and "Copy_free", are generated by using the turbo code. The two watermarks are composed of 9 bytes (72 bits). If turbo code is applied for error correction, the amount of information to be inserted as 222 bits increases. The 222-bit watermark was expanded to 1024 bits to be robust against additional errors and finally used as a watermark to insert into stereo music. Turbo code is a way to recover raw data if the damaged amount is less than 15% even if part of the code is damaged due to attack of watermarked content. It can be extended to 1024 bits or it can find 222 bits from some damaged contents by increasing the probability, the watermark itself has made it more resistant to attack. The proposed algorithm uses quantization in DCT so that watermark can be detected efficiently and SNR can be improved when stereo music is converted into mono. As a result, on average SNR exceeded 40dB, resulting in sound quality improvements of over 10dB over traditional quantization methods. This is a very significant result because it means relatively 10 times improvement in sound quality. In addition, the sample length required for extracting the watermark can be extracted sufficiently if the length is shorter than 1 second, and the watermark can be completely extracted from music samples of less than one second in all of the MP3 compression having a bit rate of 128 Kbps. The conventional quantization method can extract the watermark with a length of only 1/10 compared to the case where the sampling of the 10-second length largely fails to extract the watermark. In this study, since the length of the watermark embedded into music is 72 bits, it provides sufficient capacity to embed necessary information for music. It is enough bits to identify the music distributed all over the world. 272 can identify $4*10^{21}$, so it can be used as an identifier and it can be used for copyright protection of high quality music service. The proposed algorithm can be used not only for high quality audio but also for development of watermarking algorithm in multimedia such as UHD (Ultra High Definition) TV and high-resolution image. In addition, with the development of digital devices, users are demanding high quality music in the music industry, and artificial intelligence assistant is coming along with high quality music and streaming service. The results of this study can be used to protect the rights of copyright holders in these industries.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.37-57
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• 2018

With the spread of smart phones, interest in mobile media is on the increase as useful media recently. Mobile media is assessed as having differentiated advantages from existing media in that not only can they provide consumers with desired information anytime and anywhere but also real-time interaction is possible in them. So far, studies on mobile advertising were mostly researches analyzing satisfaction with, and acceptance of, mobile advertising based on survey, researches focusing on the factors affecting acceptance of mobile advertising messages and researches verifying the effect of mobile advertising on brand recall, advertising attitude and brand attitude through experiments. Most of the domestic mobile advertising studies related to advertisement effect and advertisement attitude have been conducted through experiments and surveys. The advertising effectiveness measure of the mobile ad used the attitude of the advertisement, purchase intention, etc. To date, there have been few studies on the effects of mobile advertising on actual advertising data to prove the characteristics of the advertising platform and to prove the relationship between the factors influencing the advertising effect and the factors. In order to explore advertising effect of mobile advertising platform currently commercialized, this study defined advertising characteristics and media characteristics from the perspective of advertiser, advertising platform and publisher and analyzed the influence of each characteristic on advertising effect. As the advertisement characteristics, we classified advertisement format classified by bar type and floating type, and advertisement material classified by image and text. We defined advertisement characteristics of advertisement platform as Hedonic and Utilitarian media characteristics. As a dependent variable, we use CTR, which is the ratio of response (click) to ad exposure. The theoretical background and the analysis of the mobile advertising business, the hypothesis that the advertisement effect is different according to the advertisement specification, the advertisement material, In the ad standard, bar ads are classified as static framing, Floating ads can be categorized as dynamic framing, and the hypothetical definition of floating advertisements, which are high-profile dynamic framing ads, is highly responsive. In advertising, images with high salience are defined to have higher ad response than text. In the media characteristics classified as practical / hedonic type, it is defined that the hedonic type media has a more relaxed tendency than the practical media, and there is a high possibility of receiving various information because there is no clear target. In addition, image material and hedonic media are defined to be highly effective in the interaction between advertisement specification and advertisement material, advertisement specifications and media characteristics, and advertisement material and media characteristics. As the result of regression analysis on each characteristic, material standard, which is a characteristic of mobile advertisement, and media characteristics separated into 'Hedonic' and 'Utilitarian' had significant influence on advertisement effect and mutual interaction effect was also confirmed. In the mobile advertising standard, the advertising effect of the floating advertisement is higher than that of the bar advertisement, Floating ads were more effective than text ads for image ads. In addition, it was confirmed that the advertising effect is higher in the practical media than the hedonic media. The research was carried out with the big data collected from the mobile advertising platform, and it was possible to grasp the advertising effect of the measure index standard which is used in the practical work which could not be grasped in the previous research. In other words, the study was conducted using the CTR, which is a measure of the effectiveness of the advertisement used in the online advertisement and the mobile advertisement, which are not dependent on the attitude of the ad, the attitude of the brand, and the purchase intention. This study suggests that CTR is used as a dependent variable of advertising effect based on actual data of mobile ad platform accumulated over a long period of time. The results of this study is expected to contribute to establishment of optimum advertisement strategy such as creation of advertising materials and planning of media which suit advertised products at the time of mobile advertisement.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.77-96
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• 2011

An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main products to business or private visitors, and it plays a key role as effective marketing channels. As the importance of exhibition is getting more and more, domestic exhibition industry has achieved such a great quantitative growth. But, In contrast to the quantitative growth of domestic exhibition industry, the qualitative growth of Exhibition has not achieved competent growth. In order to improve the quality of exhibition, we need to understand the preference or behavior characteristics of visitors and to increase the level of visitors' attention and satisfaction through the understanding of visitors. So, in this paper, we used the observation survey method which is a kind of field research to understand visitors and collect the real data for the analysis of behavior pattern. And this research proposed the following methodology framework consisting of three steps. First step is to select a suitable exhibition to apply for our method. Second step is to implement the observation survey method. And we collect the real data for further analysis. In this paper, we conducted the observation survey method to obtain the real data of the KIDS & EDU EXPO for Children in SETEC. Our methodology was conducted on 160 visitors and 78 booths from November 4th to 6th in 2010. And, the last step is to analyze the record data through observation. In this step, we analyze the feature of exhibition using Demographic Characteristics collected by observation survey method at first. And then we analyze the individual booth features by the records of visited booth. Through the analysis of individual booth features, we can figure out what kind of events attract the attention of visitors and what kind of marketing activities affect the behavior pattern of visitors. But, since previous research considered only individual features influenced by exhibition, the research about the correlation among features is not performed much. So, in this research, additional analysis is carried out to supplement the existing research with data mining techniques. And we analyze the relation among booths using data mining techniques to know behavior patterns of visitors. Among data mining techniques, we make use of two data mining techniques, such as clustering analysis and ARM(Association Rule Mining) analysis. In clustering analysis, we use K-means algorithm to figure out the correlation among booths. Through data mining techniques, we figure out that there are two important features to affect visitors' behavior patterns in exhibition. One is the geographical features of booths. The other is the exhibit contents of booths. Those features are considered when the organizer of exhibition plans next exhibition. Therefore, the results of our analysis are expected to provide guideline to understanding visitors and some valuable insights for the exhibition from the earlier phases of exhibition planning. Also, this research would be a good way to increase the quality of visitor satisfaction. Visitors' movement paths, booth location, and distances between each booth are considered to plan next exhibition in advance. This research was conducted at the KIDS & EDU EXPO for Children in SETEC(Seoul Trade Exhibition & Convention), but it has some constraints to be applied directly to other exhibitions. Also, the results were derived from a limited number of data samples. In order to obtain more accurate and reliable results, it is necessary to conduct more experiments based on larger data samples and exhibitions on a variety of genres.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.97-107
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• 2011

Nowadays there are a lot of issues about copyright infringement in the Internet world because the digital content on the network can be copied and delivered easily. Indeed the copied version has same quality with the original one. So, copyright owners and content provider want a powerful solution to protect their content. The popular one of the solutions was DRM (digital rights management) that is based on encryption technology and rights control. However, DRM-free service was launched after Steve Jobs who is CEO of Apple proposed a new music service paradigm without DRM, and the DRM is disappeared at the online music market. Even though the online music service decided to not equip the DRM solution, copyright owners and content providers are still searching a solution to protect their content. A solution to replace the DRM technology is digital audio watermarking technology which can embed copyright information into the music. In this paper, the author proposed a new audio watermarking algorithm with two approaches. First, the watermark information is generated by two dimensional barcode which has error correction code. So, the information can be recovered by itself if the errors fall into the range of the error tolerance. The other one is to use chirp sequence of CDMA (code division multiple access). These make the algorithm robust to the several malicious attacks. There are many 2D barcodes. Especially, QR code which is one of the matrix barcodes can express the information and the expression is freer than that of the other matrix barcodes. QR code has the square patterns with double at the three corners and these indicate the boundary of the symbol. This feature of the QR code is proper to express the watermark information. That is, because the QR code is 2D barcodes, nonlinear code and matrix code, it can be modulated to the spread spectrum and can be used for the watermarking algorithm. The proposed algorithm assigns the different spread spectrum sequences to the individual users respectively. In the case that the assigned code sequences are orthogonal, we can identify the watermark information of the individual user from an audio content. The algorithm used the Walsh code as an orthogonal code. The watermark information is rearranged to the 1D sequence from 2D barcode and modulated by the Walsh code. The modulated watermark information is embedded into the DCT (discrete cosine transform) domain of the original audio content. For the performance evaluation, I used 3 audio samples, "Amazing Grace", "Oh! Carol" and "Take me home country roads", The attacks for the robustness test were MP3 compression, echo attack, and sub woofer boost. The MP3 compression was performed by a tool of Cool Edit Pro 2.0. The specification of MP3 was CBR(Constant Bit Rate) 128kbps, 44,100Hz, and stereo. The echo attack had the echo with initial volume 70%, decay 75%, and delay 100msec. The sub woofer boost attack was a modification attack of low frequency part in the Fourier coefficients. The test results showed the proposed algorithm is robust to the attacks. In the MP3 attack, the strength of the watermark information is not affected, and then the watermark can be detected from all of the sample audios. In the sub woofer boost attack, the watermark was detected when the strength is 0.3. Also, in the case of echo attack, the watermark can be identified if the strength is greater and equal than 0.5.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1-19
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• 2010

In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.147-157
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• 2010

With the immergence of the iPhone, the interest in Smartphones is getting higher as services can be provided directly between service providers and consumers without the network operators. As the number of international tourists increase, individual tourists are also increasing. According to the WTO's (World Tourism Organization) prediction, the number of international tourists will be 1.56 billion in 2020,and the average growth rate will be 4.1% a year. Chinese tourists, in particular, are increasing rapidly and about 100 million will travel the world in 2020. In 2009, about 7.8 million foreign tourists visited Korea and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism is trying to attract 12 million foreign tourists in 2014. A research institute carried out a survey targeting foreign tourists and the survey results showed that they felt uncomfortable with communication (about 55.8%) and directional signs (about 21.4%) when they traveled in Korea. To solve this inconvenience for foreign tourists, multilingual servicesfor traffic signs, tour information, shopping information and so forth should be enhanced. The appearance of the Smartphone comes just in time to provide a new service to address these inconveniences. Smartphones are especially useful because every Smartphone has GPS (Global Positioning System) that can provide users' location to the system, making it possible to provide location-based services. For improvement of tourists' convenience, Seoul Metropolitan Government hasinitiated the u-tour service using Kiosks and Smartphones, and several Province Governments have started the u-tourpia project using RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) and an exclusive device. Even though the u-tour or u-tourpia service used the Smartphone and RFID, the tourist should know the location of the Kiosks and have previous information. So, this service did not give the solution yet. In this paper, I developed a new convenient service which can provide location based information for the individual tourists using GPS, WiFi, and 3G. The service was tested at Insa-dong in Seoul, and the service can provide tour information around the tourist using a push service without user selection. This self-tour service is designed for providing a travel guide service for foreign travelers from the airport to their destination and information about tourist attractions. The system reduced information traffic by constraining receipt of information to tourist themes and locations within a 20m or 40m radius of the device. In this case, service providers can provide targeted, just-in-time services to special customers by sending desired information. For evaluating the implemented system, the contents of 40 gift shops and traditional restaurants in Insa-dong are stored in the CMS (Content Management System). The service program shows a map displaying the current location of the tourist and displays a circle which shows the range to get the tourist information. If there is information for the tourist within range, the information viewer is activated. If there is only a single resultto display, the information viewer pops up directly, and if there are several results, the viewer shows a list of the contents and the user can choose content manually. As aresult, the proposed system can provide location-based tourist information to tourists without previous knowledge of the area. Currently, the GPS has a margin of error (about 10~20m) and this leads the location and information errors. However, because our Government is planning to provide DGPS (Differential GPS) information by DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) this error will be reduced to within 1m.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.213-225
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• 2010

Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.