• 전기산업
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.17-44
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• 2000

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.176-176
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• 2021

한반도의 강수를 예측하는 것은 수자원 관리 측면에서 매우 중요하다. 한반도의 강수는 연별 변동 뿐 아니라 계절별로 변동을 갖는다. 우리는 이 중 건기(Dry period)의 가뭄과 그 이후 농번기(3월, 4월)에 영향을 미치는 초겨울(11월, 12월)의 강수를 예측은 수자원 관리에 있어서 중요한 의미를 갖는다. 본 연구에서는 Regularized regression 모형인 Elastic net model을 이용하여 중장기 (7개월 이상)기반으로 초겨울의 강우 예측의 가능성에 대해서 논하고자 한다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 초겨울 강우의 변동이 대서양의 대규모의 대기 순환과 밀접한 관계를 보이는 것을 확인하였으며 이를 논하기 위해서 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) 등의 자료를 사용하여 분석하였다. 이 시간적 지체 효과를 갖고 있는 대기 순환은 Eurasia 지역을 기반으로 횡적인 순환과 관련이 깊은 것으로 파악되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 앞으로 우리나라의 가뭄관리에 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.8576-8584
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• 2015

Load forecasting is needed to make supply and demand plan for a stable supply of electricity. It is also necessary for optimal operational plan of the power system planning. In particular, in order to ensure stable power supply, long-term load forecasting is important. And regional load forecasting is important for tightening supply stability. Regional load forecasting is known to be an essential process for the optimal state composition and maintenance of the electric power system network including transmission lines and substations to meet the load required for the area. Therefore, in this paper we propose a forecasting method using SARIMA during the 12 months (long-term/mid-term) load forecasting by 16 regions of the South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.348-359
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• 2017

Recently, various public transportation activation policies are being implemented in order to mitigate traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Especially in the metropolitan area, the bus information system has been introduced to provide information on the current location of the bus and the estimated arrival time. However, it is difficult to predict the travel time due to repetitive traffic congestion in buses passing through complex urban areas due to repetitive traffic congestion and bus bunching. The previous bus travel time study has difficulties in providing information on route travel time of bus users and information on long-term travel time due to short-term travel time prediction based on the data-driven method. In this study, the path based long-term bus travel time prediction methodology is studied. For this purpose, the training data is composed of 2015 bus travel information and the 2016 data are composed of verification data. We analyze bus travel information and factors affecting bus travel time were classified into departure time, day of week, and weather factors. These factors were used into clusters with similar patterns using self organizing map. Based on the derived clusters, the reference table for bus travel time by day and departure time for sunny and rainy days were constructed. The accuracy of bus travel time derived from this study was verified using the verification data. It is expected that the prediction algorithm of this paper could overcome the limitation of the existing intuitive and empirical approach, and it is possible to improve bus user satisfaction and to establish flexible public transportation policy by improving prediction accuracy.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.1471-1477
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• 2014

This paper addresses the development on supply-demand outlook model of Jeju winter radish and introduces a projection of supply-demand and market prices during 2014-2018 using the model. The supply-demand outlook model is specified as a partial equilibrium model of Jeju winter radish. Each equation in the model is estimated by using the econometric techniques. A review of the model stability is also carried out by the references based on RMSPE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficients. According to the reference of RMAPE, the error rates of the forecasting values of the cultivation ares, production quantity, and consumption quantity show less than 4% and the error rate of market price is below 10%. The cultivation area and production quantity are projected respectively to be increased to 6,650ha and 433,310MT in 2018.

• Water for future
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.70-82
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• 2017

• Journal of Korean Electronics
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.24-29
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• 1995

• Journal of Korean Electronics
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.30-38
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• 1995

• Science & Technology Policy
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• v.5 no.1 s.70
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• pp.38-48
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• 1995

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2000.05a
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• pp.278-300
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• 2000

일본에서는 이미 1997년에 제 6회 기술예측조사를 실시하여 2025 년까지의 미래기술예측을 실시하였고 우리나라에서도 1998 년 6 월부터 약 1 년 반동안 중장기 기술예측을 실시하여 1999 년 11 월에 제 2 회 과학기술예측 결과를 발표하였다. 양국의 전자 정보ㆍ통신분야의 기술예측 결과를 비교ㆍ분석하여 양국의 기술예측결과의 특징을 살펴보고 정책적 활용방법을 모색해 본다.