• Title/Summary/Keyword: 중장기 예측

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A study on reliability analysis model of the repair and replacement cycle of a building which utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 건축물 수선교체주기 신뢰성 분석 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Rok;Jung, Young-Han;Son, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2010
  • This study presented a model that can enable a reliability analysis for the repair and replacement cycle of a building by using background repair and replacement data and expert opinion as foundation data and applying Monte Carlo Simulation. The presented model offers the time of the repair and replacement of building elements for the period of a year, and supports the prediction of repair and replacement and expenses demand in advance while planning the maintenance of a building. In addition, the model will significantly reduce the risks to the building owner with regard to maintenance decisions. In addition, when a person in charge of the maintenance of large-scale building assets is having difficulties making decisions regarding the repair and replacement of existing building elements due to a lack of background data to support a long-term policy on the repair and replacement requirements, an engineering solution that can ensure the adequacy of this is provided. In summary, it can be largely divided into three study results. First, a method of estimating the repair and replacement cycle that can deal with the development of a construction system was developed. Second, a probabilistic methodology that can quantify the risk of the repair and replacement cycle was proposed. Third, the proposed model can be used as a means of supporting designer and constructor in making decisions for the life cycle plan of a building during a construction project.

A Survey and Study on Operator's Awareness for a Suggestion of Policy for Revitalization of Small Libraries in Gwangmyeong City (광명시 작은도서관 활성화 정책 제안을 위한 운영자 인식조사 연구)

  • Choi, Man-Ho;Noh, Younghee;Kim, Yoon-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2021
  • Small libraries have continued to be extended since 2013 enactment of regulations requiring establishment of small libraries in multi family housing complex not less than 500 households and the 'Living SOC Project' of national government. Gwangmyeong city designated the year of 2020 as the 'year of citizen autonomy' sharing the authority with citizens and publicly announced its plan to rapidly extend the living and cultural spaces as a part of that extension. Likewise, as the social environment and the need of users are expected to change, it seems that the small libraries in Gyangmyeong City must prepare a plan for practicing a long and mid term practices in responding to that change. Thus, this Study tries to make a suggestion for a plan for the policy for revitalization of small libraries in order to handle those changing social environment and the need of users. For this, a survey and in-depth group interview were conducted for the operators of the small libraries in Gyangmyeong City. As a result of this Study, the following policies are suggested: first, improvement of support system for improving operational system, strengthening of cooperative system of public libraries, and strengthening of role of public small libraries, strengthening of public characters of private small libraties and differentiated support through evaluation based on abilities; and second, it is necessary for utilization of circulating librarians and professional volunteers, sharing of materials through mutual lending of books, associate librarians having term of office and revitalization of small library conference by regions.

Assessing the Impacts of EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Its Policy Implications: An Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (환경산업연관분석을 활용한 탄소국경조정 메커니즘 도입에 따른 국내 산업계 영향 분석과 대응전략)

  • Yeo, Yeongjun;Cho, Hae-in;Jeong, Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.419-449
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to quantify the potential economic burdens of EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms faced by Korean domestic industries. In addition, this study tries to compare and analyzes changes in the burden of each industry resulted from the implementation of the domestic low-carbon policy. Based on the quantitative findings, we intend to suggest policy implications for establishing mid- to long-term strategies in response to climate change risks. Based on the environmentally extended input-output analysis, the total economic burdens of the domestic industries due to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms are estimated to be approximately KRW 8,245.6 billion in 2030. Looking at the impacts by industry, it is found that major industries such as petrochemicals, petroleum refining, transportation equipment, steel, automobiles, and electric/electronic equipment industries are expected to account for 84.3% of the total potential burdens. In addition, in multiple policy scenarios assuming technological developments and energy transition following the implementation of domestic low-carbon policies, the total economic burden of carbon border adjustment is expected to decrease by about 11.7% to 15.0%. The main result of this study suggests that we should not view EU EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism as a trade regulation, but to use it as a momentum for more effective implementation of the low-carbon and energy transition strategies in the global carbon neural era.

Estimation of Habitat Suitability Index of Fish Inhabiting the Seomjin River using WDFW and IFASG Methods (WDFW 및 IFASG 방법으로 섬진강 서식 어류의 서식지적합도지수(HSI) 산정)

  • Lee, Jong Jin;Kong, Dong Soo;Hur, Jun Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.484-484
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    • 2022
  • 서식지적합도지수(Habitat Suitability Index, HSI)는 어류의 환경생태유량(Environmental Ecological Flow) 산정과 관련해 국내외에서 PHABSIM (Physical Habitat Simulation System)이나 River2D 모형과 같은 생태수리 모형에 적용되고 있으며, 특히 물리적서식지모의시스템은 흐름특성(유량유속, 수심 등)의 변화에 대한 하도구간 내 대표어종의 물리적 서식지 변화를 예측하여 대상 어종에 대한 가용서식지면적(어류가 살 수 있는 서식지 면적, Weighed Usable Area, WUA)유량 관계를 통해 서식에 필요한 최적 유량을 산정하는 데 목적이 있다. 물리적 서식지적합도지수 산정과 화학적 서식지적합도지수 산정방법은 WDFW (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2004)방법과 IFASG (Instream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group, 1986)의 방법으로 산정하였다. 섬진강에서 2020년에는 3개지점, 2021년에는 2020년 3개지점과 새로운 3개지점에 대하여 각각 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 및 11월에 어류 조사 및 물리적 조건 등에 대하여 현장 모니터링을 실시하였다. 2차년도 동안 모니터링 결과 섬진강에서는 줄납자루, 섬진자가사리, 참중고기, 참몰개, 잉어, 붕어, 칼납자루, 큰납지리, 누치, 모래무지, 피라미, 치리, 블루길, 배스 14종에 대하여 물리적 및 화학적 HSI를 산정하였다. 주요종의 WDFW 방법에 따른 큰줄납자루는 수심 0.3~0.6 m, 유속 0.1~0.4 m/s, 섬진자가사리는 수심 0.2~0.5 m, 유속 0.3~0.7 m/s, 참중고기는 수심 0.4~0.8 m, 유속 0.1~0.6 m/s, 피라미는 수심 0.3~0.7 m, 유속 0.1~0.5 m/s로 산정되었다. IFASG 방법으로 큰줄납자루는 섬진강에서는 수심 0.64 m에서 최대의 출현도를 보였으며, HSI는 0.46~0.83 m, 유속은 0.59 m/s에서 최대의 출현도를 보였고, HSI는 0.38~0.83 m/s, 하상기질의 선호도는 평균입경(𝚽m) -1.14(grevel)에서 최대의 출현도를 보였으며, HSI -3.35~0.65(grevel~sand)로 산정되었다. 화학적 HSI 산정결과 큰줄납자루는 BOD는 1.0 mg/L에서 최대 출현도를 보였고, HSI는 0.7~1.2 mg/L, T-N은 0.925 mg/L에서 최대 출현도를 보이며 HSI는 0.604~1.277 mg/L, T-P는 0.028 mg/L에서 최대 출현도를 보이며 HSI는 0.021~0.034 mg/L, SS는 3.6 mg/L에서 최대 출현도를 보이며, HSI는 2.1~5.2 mg/L의 범위로 산정되었다. 산정된 범위는 환경부 생활환경기준 BOD 매우좋음(Ia)~좋음(Ib), T-P 매우좋음(Ia)~좋음(Ib) 등급으로 각각 확인되었다. 본 과제는 3차년(2022년)이 아직 남아 있어 HSI에 대하여 약간 보정이 있을 것이며, 최종 HSI가 산정이 되면 향후 환경적 기능을 고려한 중장기 정부 정책의 활용성 높은 기초자료가 될 것이다.

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A Study on the Effect of the Urban Regeneration Project on the Reduction of Carbon Emission - A Case Study of Jeonju Test-Bed - (도시재생사업 적용에 따른 탄소저감 효과 - 전주TB지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Kiyong;Lee, Sangeun;Park, Heekyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.

The Analyses of Geographers지 Roles and Demands in Korean GIS Industries (GIS 산업에 있어서 지리학의 역할 및 수요에 대한 분석)

  • Chang Eun-mi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.643-664
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to review what geographers have contributed to GIS industries and national needs. To-be-geographers and geographers are expected to meet the gap between what we have teamed in school and what we have to do after graduation. The characteristics of GIS industry in the 1990 are summarized with approximate evaluation of the contribution of geographers in each stage. Author introduced the requirement for the licenses of geomatics and geospatial engineering experts and the other licenses, which are important to get a job in GIS industry from 2003 to 2004. A set of questionnaire on the user's requirements was given to GIS people in private companies and public GIS research centers and analyzed. Author found that they put an emphasis on hands-on experiences and programming skills. no advantages or geography such as capability or integration and inter-disciplinary collaboration were not appreciated. The prospects for the GIS tend to be positive but the reflectance of the prospect was not accompanied by at the same degree of preference for geography. Most government strategies for the next ten years' GIS focus on new-growth leading industries. SWOT(strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) analysis of geography for GIS industry will give some directions such as telematics, regional marketing strategies with web-based GIS technology, location based service. That means intra-disciplinary study in geography will evoke the potentiality of GIS, compared with interdisciplinary studies.

정지궤도 통신해양기상위성의 기상분야 요구사항에 관하여

  • Ahn, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Kum-Lan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.20-42
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    • 2002
  • Based on the "Mid to Long Term Plan for Space Development", a project to launch COMeS (Communication, Oceanography, and Meteorological Satellite) into the geostationary orbit is undergoing. Accordingly, KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has defined the meteorological missions and prepared the user requirements to fulfill the missions. To make a realistic user requirements, we prepared a first draft based on the ideal meteorological products derivable from a geostationary platform and sent the RFI (request for information) to the sensor manufacturers. Based on the responses to the RFI and other considerations, we revised the user requirement to be a realistic plan for the 2008 launch of the satellite. This manuscript introduces the revised user requirements briefly. The major mission defined in the revised user requirement is the augmentation of the detection and prediction ability of the severe weather phenomena, especially around the Korean Peninsula. The required payload is an enhanced Imager, which includes the major observation channels of the current geostationary sounder. To derive the required meteorological products from the Imager, at least 12 channels are required with the optimum of 16 channels. The minimum 12 channels are 6 wavelength bands used for current geostationary satellite, and additional channels in two visible bands, a near infrared band, two water vapor bands and one ozone absorption band. From these enhanced channel observation, we are going to derive and utilize the information of water vapor, stability index, wind field, and analysis of special weather phenomena such as the yellow sand event in addition to the standard derived products from the current geostationary Imager data. For a better temporal coverage, the Imager is required to acquire the full disk data within 15 minutes and to have the rapid scan mode for the limited area coverage. The required thresholds of spatial resolutions are 1 km and 2 km for visible and infrared channels, respectively, while the target resolutions are 0.5 km and 1 km.

Clinical Investigation about the Result of Surgically Treated Myasthenia Gravis (중증 근무력증의 수술적 치료결과에 대한 임상적 고찰)

  • 김대현;황은구;조규석;김범식;박주철
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2003
  • Myasthenia gravis is a rare autoimmune disease involving acetylcholine receptor and its autoantibody on neuromuscular junction. The methods of treatment are medical treatment and surgical thymectomy. In this paper we analyzed the result of thymectomy and the factors affecting the postoperative symptom improvement. Material and method : This study obtained medical records of 37 patients who received the thymectomy for myasthenia gravis from March 1986 to December 1998. Result Out of 37 cases, 21 cases(57%) showed improvement, of which 8 cases (50%) in the group of thymoma(n=16), and 13 cases (62%) in the group of thymic hyperplasia(n=21) showed the improvement of symptoms. Postoperative complications were respiratory insufficiency due to aggravation of symptoms after operation, including tracheal intubation for ventilator support in 9 cases, pneumonia in 3 cases, pneumothorax in 2 cases and left vocal cord palsy in 1 case. There was one postoperative mortality. The relation between postoperative improvement and sex(P=0.3222), age(P=0.7642), thymic pathologic variants,(P=0.4335) and classification of thymoma(P=0.20) showed no statistically significant correlation. However, the lower grade of preoperative symptoms can predict the lower grade of postoperative symptoms significantly(P=0.0032). Follow up study to 36 postoperative survivors was performed in October 2002 based on the out-patient records and call with patients. Out of 36 cases, 33 cases(91.7%) could be investigated and 3 cases could not. Mean follow up period was 83.2 months. Out of 33 cases, 25 cases(75.8%) showed symptomatic improvement, of which 8 cases(53.3%) in the group of thymoma(n=15) and 17 cases(94.4%) in the group of thymic hyperplasia(n=18) showed the improvement of$\boxUl$ symptoms. Conclusion : In myasthenia gravis, thymectomy showed the good improvement, and more important factor affecting the improvement of symptoms was the grdae of preoperative symptoms. Also midterm and long term follow up results showed good symptomatic improvement.