• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.43-69
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• 2021

As the trade linkages and the financial relationship between China and Korea grow stronger, China's influence on Korea is also growing larger. Therefore, it is meaningful to examine key features of Chinese monetary policy operations and the current situation, and to analyze the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy shocks onto the Korea economy. China's monetary policy shocks can have an impact on the Korea economy through the trade, financial and oil-price channels. In the trade channel, an expansionary Chinese monetary policy can increase Korea's exports of intermediate goods to China under the vertical trade structure, via the vertical trade integration effect. Meanwhile, the expenditure switching effect and the income demand effect show no statistical significance. In the financial and oil-price channels, expansionary Chinese monetary policy shocks can decrease the interest rate and increase both stock prices and the consumer price index in Korea through changes in global portfolio capital flows, interest rates, and raw material prices.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.313-362
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• 2013

중국의 위안화 국제화(지역화)는 중국경제의 성장 및 중국정부의 전략적, 정책적 지원에 따라 가속화되고 있다. 특히 최근 ASEAN과 중국 간 경제통합이 빠르게 진행됨에 따라 동남아시아 지역에서 중국 위안화의 유통이 확대되고 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 위안화 유통의 확대와 관련하여 위안화 국제화(지역화)가 동남아시아 국가들의 환율정책에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 한다. 동 지역에서 위안화의 유통의 확대(위안화 국제화)가 유의미하다면 달러화 대비 위안화 환율과 달러화 대비 동남아시아 개별국가통화 환율 간에 인과적 관계를 보일 것이다. 왜냐하면 환율정책의 중요한 목적 중 하나는 환율의 안정적 운영인데 환율결정에 있어 위안화의 비중이 크다면 그 만큼 달러화 대비 개별국가통화 간 환율의 영향도 커지기 때문이다. 본 논문은 이러한 가설을 바탕으로 두 환율변수 간 공적분 분석 등 계량분석을 통해 가설검정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이전(2005.8~2008.6)에는 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 나타나는데 비해 그 이후(2010.7~2012.6)는 비동조화 현상이 나타나는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 2010년 이후 유럽의 재정 위기 등 글로벌 경기침체로 인해 동남아시아 국가들의 환율 정책 우선순위가 환율의 안정적 운영에서 경기회복을 위한 수출증가 및 이를 위한 개별국가 통화의 환율절하로 전환하였음을 의미한다고 할 수 있다. 또한 중국과의 국경무역 등 경제적 영향이 상대적으로 큰 GMS(라오스, 미얀마, 베트남)국가들의 경우 그 외 아세안 7개국들에 비해 두 환율변수 간 동조화 현상이 강하게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 이들 국가들이 상대적으로 기타 국가들에 비해 위안화 국제화에 대한 민감도가 높다는 것을 의미한다. 향후 동남아시아 국가들의 경기가 회복되고 위안화의 국제화가 가속되면 두 환율 간 동조화 기조는 강화될 것으로 예상된다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.3-23
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• 2016

In this study, we used actual proof analysis, based on SVAR model according to economy theory, to observe the impact of actual and financial market of Korea, Japan, and China that have adopted quantitative easing export based strategy of growth, an unconventional monetary policy of the U.S. As a result of estimation, it appears that real effective exchange rate rise shock of Korea, Japan, and China against U.S. dollar has a negative influence on current account and index of industrial product, which are real economy. It can be implied that the result is driven from the fact that strong home currency of Korea, Japan, and China decreases price competitiveness of exports, causing negative influence on real economy. The real effective exchange rate shock against U.S. dollar appeared to decrease national bond rate of Korea and Japan, while increasing that of China. In instances of Korea and Japan, it is implied that national bond rate decreases as foreigner investment funds flow in, considering foreign-exchange profit through advanced financial market with high opening extent. On the other hand, because there are strong regulation on opening extent of Chinese financial markets, the influence seems to be greater for domestic policy, rather than a foreign influence. Lastly, Korea showed a more dramatic variable reaction to exchange rate shock compared to Japan or China. It is implied from the result that Korea is relatively more susceptible and fragile in regards of international status of economic size and currency.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.189-200
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of China's trade relationships with and dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative and to present some implications. This study collected annual total imports, exports, and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 198 countries and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on 221 countries from 1995 to 2015. China's imports and exports have expanded considerably from the mid-1990s to the present, and China's dependence on imports and exports with the US and Japan has declined, while its dependence on the Middle East, South Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia has increased. China has a very high level of dependence on imports from and exports to the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative, and as the Belt and Road project progresses, the mutual trade dependency between China and the other participating countries is expected to strengthen and expand.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1387-1395
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• 2015

Since the financial crisis of 2008, the People's Republic of China has aggressively been pursuing the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan or Renminbi. In this regard, rapidly increasing use of the Chinese Yuan in the onshore and offshore markets are important milestones. This paper analyzes relationship between the onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan spot markets. Major findings of this paper are as follows : First, there is full feedback relationship between the Onshore and Offshore Chinese Yuan Markets. Second, the difference between the yuan's offshore exchange rate and the onshore was getting tight. Third, the offshore Yuan market affects on the onshore market based on the empirical tests.

• The Optical Journal
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• s.173
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• pp.38-44
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• 2019

올해 국내 실물경기는 수출 증가세가 점차 둔화되고, 내수도 소비의 둔화와 투자의 감소 전환 등의 영 향으로 완연한 하락세를 보였다. 내수는 설비투자와 건설투자가 크게 감소하면서 급속한 조정 양상을 보이고 있으며, 소비도 연 2%대 증가율로 떨어지면서 둔화세를 기록하고 있다. 수출은 물량의 증가세가 유지되고 있으나, 단가는 기저효과로 인한 유가상승 폭의 축소 등의 영향으로 상승률이 떨어지면서 증가세가 둔화되었다. 2019년 세계경제는 선진권의 경기둔화와 개도권의 성장률 정체가 예상되는 가운데 하방 리스크 요인으로 인해 제한적 성장이 예상된다. 선진권은 미국경제의 성장률 하락이 예상되는 한편, 일본과 유로권도 전년보다는 약간 낮은 성장률이, 중국은 연 6%대 초반까지 성장률 하락이 예상된다. 국제유가는 글로벌 경기 둔화에 따른 원유의 수요 감소와 미 달러화의 가치 상승 등 금융 요인이 하방 압력으로 작용하나, OPEC의 감산 지속과 지정학적 불안정성이 상승 요인으로 작용하면서 연평균 보합이 예상된다. 환율은 미 달러화의 강세기조가 2019년 상반기까지 이어질 것으로 예상되지만, 하반기에는 유럽 등지의 통화긴축 전환과 미국경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 달러화가 약세로 전환하면서 연평균 기준 소폭 상승할 것으로 기대된다. 2019년 국내경제는 수출과 투자가 글로벌 경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 소폭 증가에 그치고, 소비가 전년대비 둔화세를 보이면서 2018년보다 약간 낮은 2.6%의 성장률이 예상된다. 소비는 실질소득 감소와 고용 부진 등이 예상되고, 대외 불확실성으로 인한 체감경기 약화로 증가세가 둔화되나, 보건 복지 고용의 지출 확대, 유류세 인하 등 정부 정책은 실질구매력 제고에 긍정적 요인으로 작용할 전망이다. 설비투자는 대외 불확실성과 대내 구조적 취약성 등의 영향으로 인해 제한적인 증가세가 예상되며, 건설투자도 정부의 부동산시장 안정화 대책과 SOC예산 감축 등의 영향으로 감소세가 이어질 전망이다. 수출은 세계경기의 성장세 둔화로 인해 수출물량이 소폭 증가에 그치고, 반도체의 가격 하락과 국제유가의 횡보 전망 등으로 수출단가도 하락 압력이 커지면서 2018년 보다 낮은 3.7%의 증가율이 예상된다.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.31-36
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• 2021

As the global economy stagnated due to the Corona 19 virus from Wuhan, China, most countries, including the US Federal Reserve System, introduced policies to boost the economy by increasing the amount of money. Most of the stock investors tend to invest only by listening to the recommendations of famous YouTubers or acquaintances without analyzing the financial statements of the company, so there is a high possibility of the loss of stock investments. Therefore, in this research, I have used artificial intelligence deep learning techniques developed under the existing automatic trading conditions to analyze and predict macro-indicators that affect stock prices, giving weights on individual stock price predictions through correlations that affect stock prices. In addition, since stock prices react sensitively to real-time stock market news, a more accurate stock price prediction is made by reflecting the weight to the stock price predicted by artificial intelligence through stock market news text mining, providing stock investors with the basis for deciding to make a proper stock investment.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.127-137
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• 2017

The role of smartphones is changing from a communication system for exchanging calls and information into a universal platform for cultural services. Also, satisfaction for mobile application services on smartphones is a very important factor in the smart business. In This paper, we analyze the effects of the outcome, service scape, costs, and especially the impact of whether costumers having to pay or free for the app on customer satisfaction. For this purpose, we analyzed survey data on service quality of mobile app service from Chinese mobile app service users. We also analyzed the moderating effects of paid and free mobile app services. As a result, it was confirmed that the quality, servicescape quality and cost of mobile app service that customers perceive have a positive effect on customer satisfaction. In addition, the effect of the cost of mobile app service perceived by the customer on customer satisfaction showed that free mobile app service was more significant than paid mobile app service. This paper can be used as an alternative to monetization for providing a mobile app service provider or a mobile app service provider who wants to switch mobile app service from free to paid service.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.169-206
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• 2009

This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

• Industry Promotion Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.295-309
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• 2024

With the implementation of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy, the tourism industry in Heilongjiang Province had an increasingly greater impact on regional economic development. Based on the tourism panel data of Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to 2021, this paper used DEA-BCC and Malmquist Index to analyze the static and dynamic changes of the tourism industry.The results of the study were as follows: (1) Static: The OE value reached strong DEA effectiveness in 2010, 2013, and 2019, indicated that tourism resources had been fully utilized. The SE value changed dramatically between 0.354 and 1, and the PTE value approached 1. OE was mainly affected by SE changes. (2) Dynamic: The total factor productivity (TFP) was overall greater than 1 and grew at an average annual rate of 13.8%. The variation in TFP was primarily influenced by the index of technological progress, indicated that the tourism industry in Heilongjiang Province made full use of technology for resource development, with a relatively high level of development efficiency. Therefore, the future focus of Heilongjiang Province's tourism industry will be on adjustments in industrial scale, technological innovation, and policy optimization.