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THE STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES OF A SOUTH KOREAN NUCLEAR SUBMARINE -RISKS AND REWARDS FOR THE US-ROK ALLIANCE- (한국의 핵추진잠수함 확보를 위한 도전과 과제 -한미동맹 측면에서의 전략적 효용성을 중심으로-)

  • Yu, Jihoon;French, Erick
    • Strategy21
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    • s.42
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    • pp.114-153
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    • 2017
  • 고도화 및 가시화되고 있는 북한의 '잠수함발사탄도미사일(SLBM: Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile)'위협에 대응하기 위한 효과적인 전략수단으로써 핵추진잠수함의 필요성에 대한 국민적 관심이 고조되고 있다. 핵추진잠수함의 전략적 가치에 대한 논의가 활발히 진행되고 있는 가운데, 주변국과의 갈등과 국제사회의 비핵화 규범의 미 준수 논란 등 핵추진잠수함 확보과정에서 야기될 수 있는 대·내외의 정치·외교적 파장에 대한 우려의 목소리 또한 높아지고 있다. 그러나, 핵추진잠수함의 필요성 및 확보와 관련한 지금까지의 대부분의 논의들은 한국의 '내부적 논의(Just our own scenario)'에 그치는 한계를 보이고 있다. 전략무기체계로써의 상징성과 그에 따르는 대외적 민감성을 고려 시 일방적이고 독자적인 핵추진잠수함 확보노력은 과정상의 시행착오와 불확실성을 더욱 가중시켜 정책적 실패로 귀결될 수 있는 위험성을 내포하고 있다. 특히, 한반도 평화와 아태지역의 안전보장이라는 공동의 전략적 목표를 공유하고 있는 동맹국인 미국의 공감대와 지지가 뒷받침되지 않은 독자적인 핵추진잠수함 확보노력은 큰 난항이 예상되며 자칫 서로간의 '전략적 신뢰(Strategic Trust)'를 무너뜨려 '한미동맹의 결속력(Alliance Cohesion)'을 약화시키는 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 미국의 동의와 지지에 기반한 핵추진잠수함 확보를 위해서는 한국의 핵추진잠수함 확보가 동맹의 전략목표 및 미국의 전략적 이해관계에 미칠 수 있는 긍정적, 부정적 효과에 대한 충분한 검토와 논의가 선행되어야 한다. 한미동맹의 공동의 전략목표와 미국의 전략적 이익에 상충하는 한국의 핵추진잠수함 확보시도는 성공 가능성이 낮기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 현실화되고 있는 북한의 핵위협에 대응하고 지역안전보장에 기여할 수 있는 미국과의 연합방위력 증강차원에서의 한국의 핵추진잠수함의 전략적 효용성을 분석하였다. 더불어, 한국의 핵추진잠수함 확보과정에서 야기될 수 있는 대·내외의 기술적, 정치·외교적 사안들을 살펴본 후 한미동맹 차원에서의 정책적 해결방안을 제시하였다. 연구목적을 위해 유사한 역사적 사례연구를 통해 교훈을 도출하였으며, 미국 오바마 1기 행정부에서 미국의 아태지역 및 대북정책을 주도한 전 미국 국무부부장관 제임스 스타인버그(James Steinberg) 및 여러 미국 내 한반도 전문가들의 의견을 수렴하였다. 본 연구가 한국의 핵잠수함 확보를 위한 한미간 발전적 논의의 시발점이 되기를 기대한다.

Identification of Uncertainty in Fitting Rating Curve with Bayesian Regression (베이지안 회귀분석을 이용한 수위-유량 관계곡선의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.943-958
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    • 2008
  • This study employs Bayesian regression analysis for fitting discharge rating curves. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian regression analysis were compared to ordinary least square method using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian regression are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits are remarkably reduced with the Bayesian regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, the Bayesian regression is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the data size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to estimate the parameters in rating curve. The merits and demerits of the two types of estimation methods are analyzed through the statistical simulation considering heteroscedasticity. The validation of the Bayesian regression is also performed using real stage-discharge data which were observed at 5 gauges on the Anyangcheon basin. Because the true parameters at 5 gauges are unknown, the quantitative accuracy of the Bayesian regression can not be assessed. However, it can be suggested that the uncertainty in rating curves at 5 gauges be reduced by Bayesian regression.

Regional Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian Multiple Regression (Bayesian 다중회귀분석을 이용한 저수량(Low flow) 지역 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.325-340
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    • 2008
  • This study employs Bayesian multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method for regional low flow frequency analysis. The parameter estimates using the Bayesian multiple regression analysis were compared to conventional analysis using the t-distribution. In these comparisons, the mean values from the t-distribution and the Bayesian analysis at each return period are not significantly different. However, the difference between upper and lower limits is remarkably reduced using the Bayesian multiple regression. Therefore, from the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian multiple regression analysis is more attractive than the conventional method based on a t-distribution because the low flow sample size at the site of interest is typically insufficient to perform low flow frequency analysis. Also, we performed low flow prediction, including confidence interval, at two ungauged catchments in the Nakdong River basin using the developed Bayesian multiple regression model. The Bayesian prediction proves effective to infer the low flow characteristic at the ungauged catchment.

A Study on Improving the Position Accuracy of the Magnetic North used in Surveillance Imaging Equipments (통합형 구조의 감시정찰 영상장비에서 자북의 위치 정확도 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Young-Don;Lee, Jae-Chon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2013
  • The surveillance imaging equipments are functioning to observe the shape of the target in real time or to measure its location precisely. The roles of such equipments are becoming more important in today's weapon systems.The aforementioned imaging equipments can be classified based on the modes of operations such as fixed, installed on cars, or composite of those. Also, according to different concepts of sensor operation, a separate type uses independent housing for each sensor whereas in a composite type a set of multiple sensors are housed into a unit altogether. The sensors in general have magnetism, thereby introducing the possible negative effects, particularly in the composite types, in locating the reference position, which is carried out by the digital compass. The use of shielding material/housing could be an option but results in increased weight and reduced portability, restricting its use in composite type equipments. As such, the objective of this paper is to study on how to reduce such magnetic effects on the position location. To do so, in the absence of magnetic shielding, a variety of sensor positions were first modeled. By combing the result with the fact that the functions of PAN & Tilt are used in the equipments, a new position location algorithm is proposed. The use of the new algorithm can automate the position location process as compared to the manual process of the existing approach. In the algorithm developed, twelve locations are measured in connection with both the azimuth and elevation angles in comparison to the six locations alone around the azimuth angle. As a result, it turns out that the measurement range has been widened but the measurement time reduced. Also, note that the effect of errors the operators may make during measurement could be reduced.

Estimation of Hydrodynamic Derivatives and Dynamic Stability for Submarine Using Captive Model Test (구속모형시험을 이용한 잠수함의 동유체력 계수 추정 및 동안정성 평가)

  • Jeong, Jae-Hun;Ok, Ji-Hun;Lee, Chi-Seung;Lee, Jae-Myung;Lee, Seung-Keon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.173-178
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    • 2015
  • In these days, the world has been increasing the development of various underwater vehicles such as ROVs (Remotely operated underwater vehicles) and AUVs (Autonomous underwater vehicles). And the importance of submarine's maneuverability is especially being emphasized. Therefore, accurate values of the derivatives in equations of motion are required to control motion of the submarines. The aims of the present study are to experimentally derive Hydrodynamic derivatives derived by the vertical planar motion mechanism (VPMM) model test, and to estimate vertical dynamic stability was estimated by using the linear hydrodynamic derivatives, the hydrodynamic derivatives of the submarine, which have a high propriety, were provided by using the fourier analysis of measured forces and moments. Furthermore it is confirmed that the experimental derivatives shows well agreement with the theoretical estimations, and the dynamic stability of the submarine was estimated as a good state, which implies that the value is greater than zero.

Politics of Knowledge of Asbestos Activism in South Korea: Settled Dust Analysis and the Controversies over Asbestos Pollution Measurement (한국석면운동의 지식 정치: 먼지 분석법과 석면오염 측정 논란을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Yeonsil
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.129-175
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    • 2018
  • This paper examines asbestos activism in South Korea by focusing on the politics of knowledge between the asbestos activist group and regulatory agency on the risk of asbestos exposure. Asbestos activism has contributed to establishing asbestos pollution an important safety and public health agenda in South Korea. Asbestos pollution investigation is key to core argument of the activism that asbestos pollution is pervasive especially in urban environment and a serious environmental health problem with its worst consequences has not yet seen. A distinctive characteristic of such asbestos investigation is the use of "settled dust analysis," non-standard, non-legislated analysis method. In this paper, literary technologies used in asbestos investigation report written by activists and controversies over asbestos pollution measurement in Samsung's head office building. Asbestos activists successfully concentrated media's attention on their argument and mobilize resources needed to make policy decisions, by using settled dust analysis data. Regulatory agency and expert group, however, neither saw settled dust analysis nor activists argument persuasive enough to make policy changes, base on their evaluation on the use of standards and evidentiary context for analyzing measured data. While its explanatory power is partially acquired, through the dispute between asbestos activists and regulatory agencies unspoken assumptions of regulatory science was revealed and became the matter of social debate. Settled dust analysis captures the characteristic of asbestos analysis which combined social movement and science to challenge the regulatory agency and expert group.

Changes in Research Trends and Issues Relating to North Korean Bronze Age Archaeology (북한 청동기시대 고고학 연구 경향의 변화와 쟁점)

  • Yi, Kisung
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.184-201
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    • 2020
  • After the liberation of Korea from Japanese colonialism, archeology in South and North Korea took different paths. In particular, archeology in South and North Korea began to show great differences from the 1970s, when the former experienced rapid academic advancement following the evacuation of large-scale relics and the latter began to demonstrate a drastically political nature. North Korea declared 'Daedonggang Culture' in the 1990s, and South and North Korean archeology subsequently became so divorced that the two shared almost no common ideas. This kind of discrepancy is now particularly prominent with regard to the Bronze Age and Iron Age around "Gojoseon". Researchers of prehistoric archeology in South Korea have no choice but to keep referring to North Korean archeology. This is because North Korean resources are the main research subjects for identifying "the origin and descent of culture", which is still one of the most important research topics. However, people cast doubt on their reliability. Such a "two-fold viewpoint" demonstrates how those associated with South Korean archeology perceive their counterparts in North Korea. A large part of the visible "gap" between South and North Korea in terms of Bronze Age archeology comes from "political difference" that cannot be resolved by an increase in survey cases or academic debate. However, examining the trend in prehistoric archeology in North Korea is not aimed at criticizing the political nature of North Korean archeology. The goal is to investigate how the North Korean perspective on the Bronze Age differs from that in South Korea at present and to examine the potential problems in explaining "prehistoric culture in the Korean peninsula" and, furthermore, prehistoric culture in Northeast Asia, by including North Korean resources. This paper examines how Bronze Age-related research trends have evolved in North Korea to date and compares them with those seen in South Korean archeology during the same period.

The Late Cretaceous Emplacement Age of Masan Hornblende-Biotite Granite (마산 각섬석-흑운모 화강암의 연령: 후기 백악기 정치연령)

  • Lee, Tae-Ho;Park, Kye-Hun;Kim, Jeongmin;Kim, Myoung Jung
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2017
  • We have dated the K-Ar, Ar-Ar and U-Pb ages of the Masan hornblende-biotite granite in the southern Cretaceous Gyeongsang basin to constrain its emplacement age. The ~108 Ma hornblende K-Ar age obtained in the study is similar to the previously reported Rb-Sr age. However, the single grain total fusion $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ dating on hornblende failed to yield statistically meaningful ages because the isotopic system was open during its alteration. Thus the hornblende K-Ar age in the study is also unlikely to be reliable. The single grain total fusion $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ dating on biotite yielded an average age of $75.8{\pm}3.0Ma$. Apart from scattered data in the range of ~45-75 Ma, the average age increased to ~80 Ma. The SHRIMP and LA-MC-ICPMS U-Pb isotopic compositions of zircon from the Masan hornblende-biotite granite yielded its emplacement age as $87.6{\pm}2.7Ma$ and $86.8{\pm}0.4Ma$, respectively. It is thus likely that the ~80 Ma $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ age of biotite might reflect the cooling age of Masan hornblende-biotite granite or the thermal influences from later intense igneous activities in the Gyeongsang basin.

Presidential Candidate's Speech based on Network Analysis : Mainly on the Visibility of the Words and the Connectivity between the Words (18대 대통령 선거 후보자의 연설문 네트워크 분석: 단어의 가시성(visibility)과 단어 간 연결성(connectivity)을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Ju-Hyun;Yun, Hae-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.24-44
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    • 2014
  • This study explores the political meaning of candidate's speech and statement who run for the 18th presidential election in the viewpoint of communication. The visibility of the words and the connectivity between the words are analyzed in the viewpoint of structural aspect and the vision, policy. The visibility of the words is analyzed based on the frequency of the words mentioned in the speech or the statement. The connectivity between the words are analyzed based on the network analysis and expressed by graph. In the case of candidate Park, the key word is the happiness of the people and appointment. The key word for candidate Moon is regime change and the Korean Peninsula and the key word for candidate Ahn is the people and change. This study contributes positively to the study of candidate's discourse in the viewpoint of methodology by using network analysis and exploring scientifically the connectivity of the words. In the theoretical aspect this study uses the results of network analysis for revealing what is the leadership components in the speech and the statement. In conclusion, this study highlights the extension of the communication studies.

Analysis of the Manpyeong of the KyungHyang Shinmun and JoongAng Ilbo based on the May 18 Democratic Uprising (5·18민주화운동을 소재로 하는 경향신문과 중앙일보의 만평 분석)

  • Park, Kyung-Pyo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.466-479
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    • 2021
  • Fake news is flooded with fake news that mixes untrue falsehoods in whole or in part. In order to create a frame for political and social purposes, news is mainly created by combining facts with fakes, or news is created for the purpose of incitement to encourage distortion and hatred. In particular, some media, including over-the-air broadcasting, are expressing their political bias in a specific direction without hesitation. Even if the press has political bias, if it is based on the delivery of facts, a trusted media environment can be achieved under the mutual checks of conservatives and progressives. The May 18 Democratic Uprising is a painful history and fact of modern history, leaving remuneration and progress. Nevertheless, there is still a view that the May 18 Democratic Uprising is regarded as 'democracy movement' and 'violence'. This study analyzed how the conservative JoongAng Ilbo and the progressive Kyunghyang Shinmun Manpyeong deal with the May 18 Democratic Uprising. The Manpyeong of the two newspapers differs greatly from the viewpoint of the May 18 Democratic Uprising. The liberal tendency of the Kyunghyang Shinmun Manpyeong has great significance in that it reveals the essence of the event and satirizes the subject. On the other hand, the conservative JoongAng Ilbo Manpyeong cannot approach the nature of the case or the object of satire due to ambiguity.