• Title/Summary/Keyword: 점진적 감소 모형

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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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A Study on the Validity of Technology Innovation Aid Programs for IT Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: Focusing on the Dynamic Characteristics and Relationship (IT중소기업 기술혁신 지원사업의 타당성 연구: 동태적 특성 및 연관성을 중심으로)

  • Park, Sung-Min;Kim, Heon;Sul, Won-Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.10B
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    • pp.946-961
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to provide guidelines on future policy for restructuring the scheme of aid programs associated with If small and medium-sized enterprises (i.e. SME) in Korea. For this purpose, we investigate an empirical dataset of recent aid programs deployed by Ministry of Information and Communication (i.e. MIC) for the last four years First, it is examined that the programs are practiced in accordance with their own policy objective by comparing matching samples between two groups such as program beneficiary and non-beneficiary companies. Second, positioning transition of programs within a same category is visualized in terms of two business portfolio analysis matrices. Third, an affiliation network matrix of (he programs is newly developed and then we attempt to analyze the programs relationship by the application of multidimensional scaling method to the affiliation network matrix. The empirical dataset is composed of two different kinds of corporate datasets. One is a corporate dataset of 8,994 beneficiary companies that are aided by MIC during the year of '03-'06. The other is also a corporate dataset of 18,354 non-beneficiary companies that have no records of the program supports during the years at all. Particularly, the matching samples of non-beneficiary companies are prepared in order to have comparable corporate age years (i.e. CAY) against beneficiary companies' CAY. Results show that; 1) up-to-date, the programs are properly assigned to IT SME conforming to their own policy objective; 2) however, as the year goes on, the following two distinct positioning transitions are revealed such as (1) both CAY and corporate sales (i.e. SAL) are increased simultaneously, (2) ratio of intangible assets (i.e. RIA) is decreased and ratio of operating gain to revenue (i.e. ROR) is increased. Hence, the role of the programs gets weakened with regard to providing seed money to technology innovation-typed IT SME so that a managerial adjustment of the programs is required consequently; 3) even though the model adequacy is not satisfactory through the analysis of multidimensional scaling method, the relationship of indirect-typed programs can relatively be stronger than that of direct-typed programs.