• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전망 이론

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Dynamics of Asset Returns Considering Asymmetric Volatility Effects: Evidences from Korean Asset Markets (우리나라 자산가격 변동의 기준점 효과 및 전망이론적 해석 가능성 검정)

  • Kim, Yun-Yeong;Lee, Jinsoo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors. For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices. We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effect, whenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain. To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns. In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected.

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Message Framing Effect in Political Publicity Campaign: Focused on Prospect Theory (정치홍보 캠페인의 메시지 프레이밍 효과: 전망이론을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jin-Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.30-39
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted with the aim of presenting a strategic implication for effective political campaign in the election situation which is held almost every year including the early presidential election. For this purpose, the $2{\times}2{\times}2$ triad experiment design of framing, involvement, political efficacy. The result shows that the main effect of framing and political efficacy was found, but the main effect of involvement was not shown. And also a result of two-way ANOVA, the interaction between framing and involvement was significant, but the interaction effect between framing and political efficacy was not significant. In addition, the three-way interaction effects of framing, involvement, and political efficacy were also significant. This study suggests that prospect theory is not often used to test the effects of political campaign messages and suggests new perspectives on political campaign strategies by introducing the prospect theory into election campaign message research.

An Empirical Study on the Cognitive Biases of The Korea Real Estate Market Through the Testing of Prospect Theory (전망이론 검증을 통한 부동산투자자들의 인지적 편의에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Seong Hoon;Park, Keun Woo
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we examine whether there are prospect theory investment patterns for individual investors in the real estate market. We use the maximum potential profit rate and the maximum potential loss rate of individual investors as a research method and additionally analyze it using the Jeong and Park(2015) model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the investment pattern according to the prospect theory and disposition effect for individual investors. And we find the difference between zoning areas. This difference in investment behavior is believed to be due to the purpose of the real estate and the existence of rent fee, which creates a difference in investment behavior depending on the purpose. The limitations of this study are the analysis measurement of potential profit and potential loss using the land price index like the study of jeong and Park(2015). This implies that a new property price index needs to be developed or a benchmark for real estate assets is needed for deeper study of real estate investment sentiment.

스마트TV 서비스 혁신에 따른 시장 전망 : 파괴적 혁신(Disruptive Innovation) 이론을 근간으로

  • Song, Min-Jeong;Lee, Hwa-Jin;Choe, Myeong-Ho
    • Information and Communications Magazine
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    • v.27 no.12
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2010
  • 본고에서는 스마트TV 혁신이 가져오는 시장의 변화를 전망하기 위해 '파괴적 혁신 이론' 과 애플 사례를 논의한 후, 스마트TV 혁신이 시장에 미치는 영향을 제작 유통 시스템, 시장규모 측면으로 나누어 분석하였다. 스마트TV는 '폐쇄형'을 '개방형' 시스템으로 전환, 유통/제작자간 관계를 개선하고, 개방형 채널 및 VOD 도입으로 4년 후 전체 방송시장이 14조 9,800억 원으로 성장하고, 개방형 IPTV로 인한 확대금액만 약 4,623억 원으로 전망되며, 방송시장 매출액 중 PP 차지 비중도 2013년 44.1%까지 1.7%포인트 확대, 직접 창출되는 일자리는 4년간 약 4,676개로 추정된다. 이의 생산유발효과는 2조 3,995억 원, 부가가치 유발효과는 1조 260억 원으로 예측되었다. 또한, 스마트TV 전체에서 도입을 예정하고 있는 TV앱스토어도 4년간 3,606억 원의 누적수익을 창출하며, 직접 창출되는 일자리는 약 2,322개, 생산유발 효과는 6,681억 원, 부가가치유발효과는 3,226억 원, TV앱스토어와 초기투자에 의해 기대되는 소프트웨어 시장고용확대 효과는 누적 3,586개로 예측되었다.

가상제조(Virtual Manufacturing) 기술의 현황과 전망

  • 최병규
    • CDE review
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.28-37
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    • 2003
  • 가상제조(VM)기술은 21세기 변화된 기업환경에서 제조경쟁력 강화를 위한 핵심기술 중에 하나로써, 형상 모델링과 시스템 이론으로 포함하여 다양한 분야로 이루어진 복합기술이다. VM 기술은 e-manufacturing의 한 분야로써 CAD/CAM 기술 발전과 궤를 같이하는데 그 적용 대상이나 방법에 따라서 digital manufacturing, virtual manufacturing, e-factory 등 다양한 이름으로 불리고 있다. 본 논문에서는 VM 기술의 개념을 정리하고, 가상제조의 국내 적용현황 및 향후 발전전망에 대하여 고찰하고자 한다.

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진공차단기의 기술현황과 장래 전망

  • 이은웅;김종겸;김택수;김욱동;김광훈
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 1993
  • 다른 차단기보다 성능이 우수하고 수명이 길며 보수점검이 용이하고 소형 경량화가 가능한 VCB의 이론을 차단원리, 구조와 기능, 소호원리, 개폐서지현상등으로 나누어 원리를 설명하였다. 또 VCB가 각 분야의 전력설비에의 차단기로서 적합함을 기술적으로 검토하였으며, 장래에 대한 전망과 우리나라의 기술수준을 밝히므로서, VCB 생산업체에서는 기술제고 노력을 촉구하였으며, 산업계에서 새로 건설하거나 기존 설비를 개조할때 VCB 채용을 위한 참고자료로 쓰이도록 노력하였다.

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확대 서평-이삼성 "현대미국외교와 국제정치", "미국의 대한정책과 한국민족주의"

  • Jeong, Yeong-Tae
    • The Korean Publising Journal, Monthly
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    • s.138
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    • pp.10-10
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    • 1993
  • 국제정치의 논리와 구조, 한국외교정책의 현황.전망을 다루고 있는 이 책들은 외교정책 결정 과정에서의 내적요인에 대한 분석의 결여라는 한국 국제정치학의 한계를 극복한 것으로 평가된다. 국제정치학 주요이론을 소개.평가하고 구체분석도 행함으로써 이론과 실제를 잘 조망하고 있다.

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새로운 이론을 통해 본 향후 유가전망

  • DoLee, Jji-
    • Korea Petroleum Association Journal
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    • no.1 s.95
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    • pp.88-91
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    • 1989
  • 90년대 중반에 원유가격이 폭등할 것이라는 95년 위기설에 대체하는 새로운 통설이 등장했다. 90년대를 통해 원유가격은 배럴당 15~20달러 범위안에서 변화할 것이라는 견해가 바로 그것이다. 시장기구를 중시하는 이 견해가 맞는다면 금세기중 제3차 석유위기는 일어나지 않을 것이다. 그러나 통설은 자기부정적인 움직임을 보이는 것도 사실이다. 일본 에너지경제연구소 도이찌쯔도무 연구실장의 논문을 통해 새로운 이론의 내용을 살펴보았다. <편집자 주>

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The Churchlands' Theory of Representation and the Semantics (처칠랜드의 표상이론과 의미론적 유사성)

  • Park, Je-Youn
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.133-164
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    • 2012
  • Paul Churchland(1989) suggests the theory of representation from the results of cognitive biology and connectionist AI studies. According to the theory, our representations of the diverse phenomena in the world can be represented as the positions of phase state spaces with the actions of the neurons or of the assembly of neurons. He insists connectionist AI neural networks can have the semantical category systems to recognize the world. But Fodor and Lepore(1996) don't look the perspective bright. From their points of view, the Churchland's theory of representation stands on the base of Quine's holism, and the network semantics cannot explain how the criteria of semantical content similarity could be possible, and so cannot the theory. This thesis aims to excavate which one is the better between the perspective of the theory and the one of Fodor and Lepore's. From my understandings of state space theory of representation, artificial nets can coordinates the criteria of contents similarity by the learning algorithm. On the basis of these, I can see that Fodor and Lepore's points cannot penetrate the Churchlands' theory. From the view point of the theory, we can see how the future's artificial systems can have the conceptual systems recognizing the world. Therefore we can have the perspectives what cognitive scientists have to focus on.

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Review on the Theory of Nursing Client Advocacy and Its Applications in Child Healthcare (간호대상자옹호이론의 발전전망과 아동간호에의 적용방안)

  • Cho, Kap-Chul
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2013
  • Since 1990, descriptive studies about the concept of client advocacy have been published in the health journals. However, empirical studies of the concept are still lacking. There are not enough bases to apply the concept of client advocacy in nursing practice. The purpose of this paper is to encourage empirical research about client advocacy by clarification of the concept and to discusses application of the theory in child healthcare. The literature was reviewed that empirical studies on client advocacy conducted after the year 2000. The changing trends in the client advocacy concept was examined; it was changed from the philosophical concept to nursing action and changed from individual advocacy to collective advocacy, with the rise of the self advocacy concept. The research trends on client advocacy evolves from descriptive study to quasi-experimental study and instrument development study, with diversification and expansion of research methods, advocates, clients and settings. The advocacy role of the nurse in child healthcare is significant due to the child's lack of self determination ability. In ill child care, the application of individual advocacy is potent, while in healthy child care, collective advocacy, policy advocacy, and social advocacy is effective.