• Title/Summary/Keyword: 적정수익률

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Study on Estimation of the Appropriate Social Discount Rate for Evaluating Public Investment Project (공공투자사업 평가의 적정 사회적할인율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Byeong-Cheol;Son, Ui-Yeong;O, Mi-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2010
  • When the cost-benefit analysis is applied for social discount rate(SDR), the choice of SDR to be used in analysis is critical. One of the important issues when public investment project evaluate what is the SDR theory, so there have studied about SDR and no exact answer it so far. In this study, there are three of SDR theories that be estimated social time preference rate, social investment returns and the weighted average method from 1990s, 2000 to 2003 and 2004 to 2008.. First, social time preference method computes consumer's interest rate and the model of Pearce and Ulph(1999). Second, social investment returns method computes private returns of capital. Third, the weighted average method computes the model of Squire, L., Herman G. van der Tak(1975) and private consumption expense and the private investment expense. SDR is estimated in the rage between 2.4% and 3.9% from 2004 to 2008. It is not appropriate that the interest rate was unstable. But it is consider for social equity from present to future generations. Considering this things, downward need to the value of current SDR 5.5%.

A Synthetic Model for Managing Market Risk of Financial Institutions (금융기관의 이자율, 환율, 주식수익률 변동위험에 대한 종합적 관리기법)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.107-128
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    • 2001
  • 금융기관이 직면하는 시장위험관리와 관련된 연구는 이자율과 주식가격 변동위험, 또는 환율과 이자율 변동위험만을 고려한 자산배분모델이므로 그 모형의 정교성에도 불구하고 국제금융기관의 시장위험관리 모형으로 이용하기에는 부족한 점이 있다. 시장위험인 VAR를 측정하는 방법 중 포트폴리오 VAR 측정방법인 델타-노말 방법을 응용하여 금융기관이 시장위험을 종합적으로 관리하는 한편, 기대수익을 최대화시키는 자산-부채의 최적배분에 대한 모형을 유도할 수 있다. 본 논문은 포트폴리오 접근법을 이용하여 금융기관의 시장위험을 종합적으로 관리할 수 있는 모형을 개발하는 동시에 미국, 일본, 영국, 독일의 주요 금융자산의 가격변동자료를 바탕으로 실증적 분석을 시도하였다. 이론적 모형과 관련하여 국제금융기관이 시장위험을 통제하는 한편 목표수익을 달성하는데 필요한 $m_1$ 종류의 국내자산과 부채의 규모, $m_2$ 종류의 외화자산과 부채의 규모를 동시적으로 결정할 수 있는 모델을 개발하였다. 이 모형은 금융기관의 위험포지션과 목표수익이 변동함에 따라 재구성되어야 할 국내외 자산과 부채의 포트폴리오에 대한 종류와 규모를 구체적으로 파악할 수 있게 한다. 실증분석을 위해 미국에 본점을 두고 미국, 일본, 영국, 독일에서 영업활동을 하는 국제금융기관이 16개의 국내외 금융자산을 이용 가능한 것으로 가정하였다. 1995년 1월부터 1999년 6월까지 이들 금융자산의 월별자료와 각 국 통화의 대 U.S. 달러 환율을 이용하여 목표이익 10,000천 달러를 실현하는 한편 이자율과 환율 위험을 최소화시키는 자산, 부채의 적정구성에 관한 결과를 제시하였다.구의 성과로는 특정 투자자 집단이 주가의 움직임에 따라 매매를 하는 수동적 전략의 의미보다는 적극적으로 주가를 움직이는 주체로서 외국인투자자와 일부 기관투자자의 존재를 확인할 수 있었다는 점이며, 주가 움직임에 따른 개인투자자와 일부 기관 투자자의 수동적 매매 스타일과 기관투자자 사이의 투자스타일의 이질성을 통계적으로 확인할 수 있었다는 데에 있다.남아 각국과 우리나라간에는 주가변동에 시차가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 각국간 표준시차 및 거래소 거래시간을 고려하면 미국, 영국, 독일의 경우에도 그 시차는 1일이내이거나 거의 시차가 없는 것으로 판단된다. 발견되어 선물의 선도효과가 지배적임을 발견하였다.적 일정하게 하는 소비행동을 목표로 삼고 소비와 투자에 대한 의사결정을 내리고 있음이 실증분석을 통하여 밝혀졌다. 투자자들은 무위험 자산과 위험성 자산을 동시에 고려하여 포트폴리오를 구성하는 투자활동을 행동에 옮기고 있다.서, Loser포트폴리오를 매수보유하는 반전거래전략이 Winner포트폴리오를 매수보유하는 계속거래전략보다 적합한 전략임을 알 수 있었다. 다섯째, Loser포트폴리오와 Winner포트폴리오를 각각 투자대상종목으로써 매수보유한 반전거래전략과 계속거래 전략에 대한 유용성을 비교검증한 Loser포트폴리오와 Winner포트폴리오 각각의 1개월 평균초과수익률에 의하면, 반전거래전략의 Loser포트폴리오가 계속거래전략의 Winner포트폴리오보다 약 5배정도의 높은 1개월 평균초과수익률을 실현하였고, 반전거래전략의 유용성을 충분히 발휘하기 위하여 장단기의 투자기간을 설정할 경우에 6개월에서 36개월로 이동함에 따라 6개월부터 24개월까지는 초과수익률이 상승하지만,

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공공투자(公共投資)의 적정할인율(滴定割引率) 분석(分析)

  • Lee, Seon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.109-134
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    • 1987
  • 현재 우리나라 공공투자(公共投資)의 비용편익분석(費用便益分析)에서 사용되는 사회적할인율(社會的割引率)은 13%로서 이는 1981년에 산정된 민간부문(民間部門)의 투자수익률(投資收益率)을 근거로 채택된 수준이다. 본고(本稿)에서는 최근 우리나라 경제여건(經濟與件)의 변화를 반영하여 사회적할인율(社會的割引率)의 적정수준을 산정하였다. 분석방법(分析方法)으로서 소비이자율(消費利子率), 생산자이자율(生産者利子率), 그리고 자본비용(資本費用)을 계산하였다. 동시에 OECD, UNIDO, 그리고 세계은행(世界銀行)의 계산방법에 따른 각 할인율(割引率)을 산정하고 그 범위를 제시하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 소비이자율(消費利子率)이 8.3~11.8%, 생산자이자율(生産者利子率)이 7.5~13.5%, 자본비용(資本費用)이 8.3~10.3% 수준을 보이고 있다. OECD 방법(方法)에 의하면 8.9~13.0%, UNIDO 방법(方法)에 따르면 4~10%, 세계은행(世界銀行) 방법(方法)에 의하면 7.0~9.8%로 산정되었다. 이와 같은 분석결과를 종합적으로 검토할 때 우리나라의 사회적할인율(社會的割引率)은 7.0~13.5% 범위로 산정되며 적정할인율(適正割引率)은 10% 수준으로 추정된다.

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The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Agricultural Corporations (한국 농업법인의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Seok;Seo, Beom;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2017
  • This study employs an analytical mathematical model to estimate the optimal debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations, more sensitive to the government debt ratio policy compared to other industries, and the estimation of the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model utilizes the equation for ROE, with the debt ratio as an independent variable, and related parameters include ROS, TAT, and NFCL. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio standard is defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROE by analytical procedures such as adding an equation concerning the debt ratio and a linearity relationship to the analytical model, and from these equations, a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as an independent variable describes the ROE. This methodemploys fourteen years of corporate data. Results show that 138% of debt ratio is the optimal debt ratio to increase the ROE of the corporations, which implies that the existing debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations is higher than optimal. Consequently, it is required for authorities to change future debt ratio policies in view that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability.Management should emphasize characteristics of the specific industry rather than standardized judgements based on numerical indexes.

A Study on the Risk Management of Projects to which the Real Estate Project Finance (부동산 PF사업의 리스크 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Chul;Lee, Jeong-Cheol;Lee, Chan-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.491-496
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    • 2008
  • In spite of economic slump, the Real Estate PF(project financing) market competes for receiving large project orders. While the project is successful, the Real Estate PF still guarantees a high benefit ratio. But the initial stage of the project involves many risks. There are many financial, constructional, legal, and other risks. After searching for possible risks, we must consider a management plan. This study executed a question investigating risk factors and management plans. Those who have studied for 3 or more years have concluded that the question objects are developer, construction company, and financial institution staff. The main management plans take actions for proper benefit rate security and loan repayment. This study has also been verified through the actual case. The study results will help solve the Real Estate PF project's risks.

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A Study on the Economic Feasibility Analysis of Cosmetics Beauty Industrialization Center

  • Kim, Ji-In;Park, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2020
  • As the cosmetics beauty industry grows into a key next-generation industry, the establishment of an industrialization center is needed, but failure to verify the adequacy and feasibility of the investment could lead to financial burdens. In this study, the project costs and facilities of an industrial center are reviewed to analyze its economic feasibility based on the cost estimates, revenue estimates, estimated profit or loss calculations, and estimated operating cash flows. The profit estimation criteria were analyzed by applying 90 per cent of expected orders for research projects (24 billion won) and 12 per cent of rental rates for testing equipment (4.5 billion won for construction), and the benefit/cost ratio is higher than 1.02 per cent and the net present value is higher than '0' won, and the internal rate of return is also more than 5.06 per cent for all three analytical methods. Therefore, in order for the construction of a cosmetics beauty industrialization center to be economically feasible, it is necessary to maintain research project orders of more than 90 percent and return on equipment rent of more than 12 percent, and a strategic approach is needed to diversify business profits.

우리나라의 저축(貯蓄)·투자(投資)와 적정외채(滴定外債)

  • Park, Won-Am;An, Ju-Yeop
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.29-49
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    • 1988
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 Tobin의 q-이론(理論)에 입각하여 투자(投資)를 결정하고 동태적(動態的) 예산제약하(豫算制約下)에서의 외채지불능력(外債支拂能力)만을 감안한 적정소비결정(滴定消費決定)의 문제점을 논의하는 동시에 우리나라에 있어서 자본(資本)의 시장가치(市場價値), 자본(資本)의 한계생산력(限界生産力) 및 이자율간(利資率間)의 관계를 살펴보고자 함에 목적(目的)이 있다. Balassa and Williamson(1987)은 우리나라의 자본수익률(資本收益率)이 해외차입금리(海外借入金利)보다 높으므로 투자(投資)를 확대시키는 한편, 지금과 같이 호전(好轉)된 해외여건(海外與件)이 상당기간 지속(持續)될 것이며 우리나라의 신인도(信認度)가 높다는 점을 들어 소비(消費)를 확대하고 장기적으로 10억(億)~20억(億)달러의 경상수지적자(經常收支赤子)를 유지하는 것이 바람직하다고 주장하였다. 본고(本稿)는 그들의 주장(主張)을 수용(受容)하는 소비(消費)와 투자(投資)의 동태적(動態的) 최적배분(最適配分)에 관한 단순모형(單純模型)을 구축하여 그들의 주장(主張)을 계량적(計量的)으로 보다 엄밀하게 점검하는 한편, 1990년대 초에 순채권국(純債權國)이 되려는 6차계획(次計劃)의 기본방향(基本方向)이 우리나라의 과거경험(過去經驗) 및 대내외여건전망(對內外與件展望)에 비추어 타당함을 보이려고 하였다.

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Comparison between Korean Regional Public Hospitals and Private non-profit General Hospitals for Investment Efficiency and Management Performance (지방공사의료원과 민간 종합병원 간의 투자효율 및 경영성과 비교)

  • Ha, Au-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.523-529
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the financial information between 2011 and 2014 comparing management performance and utilization of capital and human resources between private non-profit general hospitals and regional public hospitals operated as general hospitals. The purpose of this study was to enhance the productivity for financial independence of regional public hospitals. Comparison analysis variables were value added to the total assets, value added to the productive activity tangible fixed assets, value added to personnel expenses, ratio of value added, and operating margin to revenues. According to the analysis results, regional public hospitals showed lower investment efficiency indicator and higher ratio of value added, as well as significantly lower operating margin-to-revenues compared with private non-profit general hospitals. Moreover, the effect of investment efficiency indicators on operating margin-to-revenues was value added to the productive activity of tangible fixed assets and value added to personnel expenses in regional public hospitals; the value added to personnel expenses in private non-profit general hospitals had a significant effect on the operating margin-to-revenues, the effect of value added to personnel expenses was the greatest. Therefore, it is necessary to asset utilization to the revenue and propriety of human resources to personnel expenses in regional public hospitals.

The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Automobile Industry (국내 자동차산업의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Seo, Beom;Kim, Il-Gon;Park, Ji-Hun;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2018
  • This study explores an analytical mathematical model designed to estimate the optimal debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry, which has a more significant effect on the national economy than that of other industries, and attempts to estimate the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model is based on ROA and ROE which uses the debt ratio as an independent variable and employs ROS, TAT, and NFCL as the related parameters. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio is usually defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROA and ROE and is calculated using analytical procedures, such as by adding an equation that considers the debt ratio and the linearity relationship to the analytical model. This is because the optimal debt ratio can be calculated reliably by making use of an estimated value within a certain range, which is derived from more than two calculations rather than a single estimation starting from one calculation formula. In this study, for the estimation of the optimal debt ratio, the ROA and ROE are expressed as a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as the independent variable. Using this analysis procedure, the optimal debt ratio obtained using the data from the Korean automobile industry over a sixteen year period, which would optimize the profitability of the Korean automobile industry, was found to be 188% of the debt ratio in the ROA and 213% of the debt ratio in the ROE. This result was obtained by overcoming the problem of the reliability of the estimation value in spite of the limitations of the logical theory of this study, and can be interpreted as meaning that maintaining a debt ratio of 188% to 213% can enhance the profitability and reduce the risks in the Korean automobile industry. Furthermore, this indicates that the existing debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry is lower than the optimal value within the estimated range. Consequently, it is necessary for corporations to change their future debt ratio policies, given that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability, and to take into account the characteristics of the specific industry.

A Study on the Characteristics of Projects Following the Promotion of Private Park Special Projects (민간공원특례사업의 추진에 따른 사업특성에 관한 연구)

  • Gweon, Young-Dal;Park, Hyun-Bin;Kim, Dong-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.112-124
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to examine and analyze local governments, park status, project characteristics, and the implementation in detail for private park special projects across the country as a means of responding to the sunsetting of urban parks. As a result of the analysis, first, the private park special project, was found to be mainly implemented in cities with a population of more than 100,000, so there was a limit to the application on military installations or in local small cities. Therefore, rather than applying the special system collectively, it was judged that institutional flexibility, considering the characteristics and size of local government, was needed. Second, the current special projects by the park creation donation collection method shows monotonous development centered on apartment houses, so it is necessary to diversify the development by introducing a park preservation method that purchases and donates park sites. Third, it was found that the area standard needs to be eased to less than 50,000m2 to include parks with high utilization and good accessibility in urban areas of large cities, as the type and area of parks are limited. Fourth, most special projects are mountain parks, which are feared to damage the natural terrain and skyline, so separate ordinances should be established and applied, and development approaches should be made to allow nature and parks to coexist with the setting of detailed building guidelines for each type of facility. The guidelines should include, first, after the nationwide private park special projects are completed, standards for appropriate returns for similar projects should be established, institutional standards such as the recovery of excess profits should be established, and environmental reviews should be conducted. Second, it was found that local governments should institutionalize the composition of private consultations to promote the efficient management of projects through a cooperative system, and third, a roadmap for maintenance after the donation of special parks should be established.