• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.179-190
• /
• 2015

Local governments are commercializing natural environment, one of tourist commodities, to ensure that the proceeds from sale of tourist commodities are returned to local residents(Han Yeong-joo, Lee Moo-yong, 2001). In Songdo beach, Busan, cable car dismantled in 1980s due to the run-down state of the facility is poised for restoration in 26 years and can be said to be of great value as tourist commodity of the region and necessitates the demand forecast. To overcome limitations of demand forecast in existing studies, the analysis was made based on feasibility rate(Gruber index, self-confidence index), the realizable predictive value, for the willingness-to-visit rate when forecasting the demand of visitors. The results of demand forecast suggested that number of visitors would range from approximately 550,684 persons to 1,514,416 persons when the target region for demand forecast was confined to Busan Metropolitan City, and was in the range between 1,013,740 persons and 2,854,340 persons when the target region was expanded to cover Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Based on the results of this study, estimation of visitors and demand forecast for Songdo offshore cable car restoration which reflect characteristics of Songdo beach of Busan would provide important basis for proceeding with tourism industry development project.