• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.45-59
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• 2008

This study aims to analyze the interdecadal variation of relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the period of 1948-2005. In the pre-period, which is from 1948 to 1975, the relationship between Indian Ocean SST and East Asian summer rainfall anomaly (EASRA) is very weak. However, in the post-period, which is trom 1980 to 2005, Indian Ocean SST is significantly positively correlated with EASRA. The equatorial Indian Ocean SST has a significantly positive correlation with EASM in spring, while Indian Ocean SST near the bay of Bengal has a positive relationship in summer for the post-period. Also the interdecadal variation of the correlation between Indian Ocean SST and EASRA is significant, but that between EASRA and the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) test results show the pattern of increased precipitation in the zonal belt region including South Korea and Japan and the pattern of decreased precipitation in the northeastern part of Asia, which are similar to the real climate. The increase of the precipitation in August from the model run is also similar to the real climate variation. Model results indicate that the Indian Ocean SST warming could intensify the convection over the vicinity of the Philippines and the Bay of Bengal, which forces to move northward the convection center. This warming strengthens the EASM and weakens the WNPM.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.240-249
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• 2005

The normal Indian Ocean is characterized by warmer waters over the eastern region and cooler waters over the western region. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the western and eastern Indian Ocean give birth to a phenomenon now referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM). The positive phase of this mode is characterized by positive SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean and negative anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, while the negative phase is characterized by a reversed SST anomaly pattern. On the other hand, the normal Pacific Ocean has warm (cool) waters over the western (eastern) parts. Positive (negative) SST anomalies over the central/eastern (western) Pacific Ocean characterize the E1 Nino phenomenon. The reverse situation leads to the La Nina phenomenon. The coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon over the Pacific is referred to as the E1 Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In this study the impact of IODM and ENSO on the East Asian monsoon variability has been studied using observational data and using the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Five sets of model experiments were performed with anomalous SST patterns associated with IODM/ENSO superimposed on the climatological SSTs. The empirical and dynamic approaches reveal that it takes about 3-4 seasons fur the peak IODM mode to influence the summer monsoon activity over East Asia. On the other hand, the impact of ENSO on the East Asian monsoon could occur simultaneously. Further, the negative (positive) phase of IODM and E1 Nino (La Nina) over the Pacific enhances (suppresses) monsoon activity over the Korea-Japan Sector. Alternatively, IODM appears to have no significant impact on monsoon variability over China. However, El Nino (La Nina) suppresses (enhances) monsoon activity over China. While the IODM appears to influence the North Pacific subtropical high, ENSO appears to influence the Aleutian low over the northwest Pacific. Thus, the moisture supply towards East Asia from the Pacific is determined by the strengthening/weakening of the subtropical high and the Aleutian low.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1117-1120
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• 2009

최근 이상기후와 같은 기후변화로 인한 기온, 강수 등의 변화는 안정적인 수자원 확보에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단되고 수자원을 필요로 하는 사회 모든 분야에 있어 큰 영향을 끼친다. 특히 농업, 공업, 도시의 용수 공급에 있어 변화는 더욱 심해질 것으로 판단되며 기후변화로 인한 기온, 강수 등의 변화의 정확한 분석이 필요로 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 동아시아 해수면 온도와 우리나라 강수량에 대한 MSSA (Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis)를 실시함으로 두 시계열 사이에 공통적으로 나타나는 변화, 즉 특정 상관 주기 변동을 분석함으로 두 변수 사이에 변화 상관 분석을 실시하였다. 우리나라 강수량 자료로는 현재 기상청에서 운영 중인 지상 기상관측소 76개소 중 가용관측소 61개소 자료에 대하여 1973년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지의 자료를 수집하여 월 평균값을 사용하였고 동아시아 해수면 온도 자료로는 한반도 근해 해수면 온도 변화, 남중국해 해수면 온도 변화, 인도양 해수면 온도 변화, 적도 해수면 온도 변화 등을 선택하여 관측시점부터 2008년 12월까지 자료를 수집하여 사용하였다. 분석 자료에 대해 선형 회귀분석을 통한 선형추세 제거와 정규화한 자료를 사용하여 각각의 지수에 대해 MSSA 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 window length는 Vautard 등(1992)이 제시한 N/5$^{\sim}$N/3의 값인 108의 값을 사용하였고 이때 각각의 고유치는 전체 공분산에 대한 각 요소의 비율을 설명한다. 상관분석 결과는 각 지수와 강수자료 사이에 높은 상관성을 가지는 장단주기 변화가 존재함을 보여주었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 우리나라 월강수자료의 전체 변화는 계절변화를 제외하고도 장단 주기를 가지는 시간변화가 자료 전체 변화의 절반에 해당하며 장주기 변화가 나타내는 부분이 미미하다. 이는 계절 주기를 제외한 자료들 사이의 상관변화가 설명할 수 있는 부분이 미미 하며 여러 기상지수들과 국내 강수량사이의 MSSA 분석을 통하여 제시 할 수 있는 변화의 정량적 정도가 매우 제한됨을 보여준다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이러한 접근을 통하여 강수 변화의 불확실성을 줄여나가는 노력이 필요하다고 하겠다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.12 s.161
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• pp.995-1008
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• 2005

In this study, the principal components of rainfall in Korea are extracted by a method which consists of the independent component analysis combined with the wavelet transform, to examine the spatial correlation between seasonal rainfalls and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The 2-8 year band retains a strong wavelet power spectrum and the low frequency characteristics are shown by the wavelet analysis. The independent component analysis is performed by using the Scale Average Wavelet Power(SAWP) that is estimated by wavelet analysis. Interannual-interdecadal variation is the dominant variation, and an increasing trend is observed in the spring and summer seasons. The relationships between principal components of rainfall in the spring/summer seasons and SSTs existed in Indian and Pacific Oceans. Particularly, the SST zones, which represent a statistically significant correlation are located in the Philippine offshore and Australia offshore. Also, the three month leading SSTs in the same region we strongly correlated with the rainfall. Hence, these results propose a promising possibility of seasonal rainfall prediction by SST predictors.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.94-97
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• 2009

연 및 계절강수량의 정확한 예보는 수자원관리에 매우 중요하다. 예보 정확도를 높이기 위한 다양한 연구가 계속 진행되어 왔다. 그럼에도 불구하고 강수자료가 가지는 매우 큰 불확실성 때문에 예보의 정확도 향상은 계속되는 숙제로 우리에게 남아 있다. 이를 개선하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 군집화 기법을 이용한 연 및 계절 강수량 예측개선에 대한 연구 결과를 제시하였다. 이를 위하여 연강수량, 계절강수량 및 월강수량의 예측을 위하여 전구에서 일어나는 각종 기후 인자들과의 상관성 분석은 대단히 중요하다. 전 세계적으로 어느 특정 지역에서의 선행 기후인자 변화 양상이 우리나라의 강수량에 높은 상관성을 가지며 영향을 미친다면 예측을 위한 매우 유용한 정보라 하겠으나 국내 강수량과 기후 지수 사이의 선형 상관성은 매우 낮을 뿐만 아니라 지체상관성도 특정 지체에서 매우 큰 상관성을 보이는 인자를 찾기 어려움을 알 수 있다. 이를 극복하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 k-mean clustering을 이용하여 우리나라 주변의 기후조건을 분류하고 기후조건에 따른 강수량의 변화를 분석하였다. 남중국해역($105^{\circ}E\;^{\sim}\;135^{\circ}E$, $0^{\circ}N\;^{\sim}\;35^{\circ}N$), 우리나라 연안 해역 ($110^{\circ}E\;^{\sim}\;150^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N\;^{\sim}\;40^{\circ}N$), 인도양 해역 ($75^{\circ}E\;^{\sim}\;105^{\circ}E$, $0^{\circ}N\;^{\sim}\;25^{\circ}N$) 및 아라비아 해역 ($45^{\circ}E\;^{\sim}\;75^{\circ}E$, $0^{\circ}N\;^{\sim}\;30^{\circ}N$ 평균 해수면 온도 변화에 따라 8개 군집으로 분류한 분석결과로 분석결과 2008년도는 그룹 5에 해당하며 그룹 5의 기후 상태는 근해와 남중국해역의 평균 해수면 온도가 평년보다 낮고 인도양 해역과 아라비아 해역의 평균 해수면 온도는 평년값과 비슷한 상태를 나타낸다. 그룹 5에 해당하는 기후조건에서 차년의 강수평균은 평년값 보다 적음을 보였다. 이러한 특성은 전체 유역에 걸쳐 동일하게 나타났다. 이에 대한 계절적 평균 분포는 군집 5에 대한 차년도 강수의 평균 계절분포는 전체적으로 평년값보다 낮게 나타났다. 이에 근거하여 올해 연 평균 강수량은 평년값보다 적을 것이며 전체 계절에 대하여도 평년값보다 적은 강수량이 올 것으로 판단된다. 이는 기상청의 2009년 봄철 기후전망과 유사한 예측 결과를 보여준다.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.662-668
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• 2013

We examine the effects of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o on tropospheric ozone through the simulation of a Climate-Chemistry model for a 40-year period (1971-2010). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals that the tropospheric ozone concentration in the central-eastern Pacific decreases when the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o occurs, which is consistent with the observation. However, the increase of ozone over Indian Ocean-Indonesia regions is weak in the simulation compared to the observations. We analyze details of the 2006 El Ni$\tilde{n}$o event to understand the mechanism that caused the change of ozone due to El Ni$\tilde{n}$o. It is found that enhanced convection as well as higher water vapor followed by shortened lifetime has led to lower the tropospheric ozone. Downward motion induced by the changes of atmospheric circulation due to sea surface temperature forcing, together with the decrease of water vapor, has brought ozone produced in the upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.35-44
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• 2007

This paper investigated the relationship between El $Ni\widetilde{n}o-Southern$ Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode events and the impacts of these two phenomena on the climate, temperature and precipitation, of the Korean Peninsula. Data gathered from 1954 to 2004 were used for analysis, which included NINO 3 index, IOD index, and monthly mean precipitation and temperature at eleven locations in Korea. Statistical results showed that the IOD and ENSO were significantly correlated in Spring and Fall. It was clearly shown that the distribution of the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean has seen the Southern and Northern Oscillation in El $Ni\widetilde{n}o$ year, and Eastern and Western in IOD year. On the other hand, in El $Ni\widetilde{n}o$ you, the mean temperature of the Korea Peninsula was lower than normal in Summer and higher in Winter and its precipitation was more than normal in both Summer and Winter. However, significant correlation was not found in IOD year. In addition, the global atmospheric circulations during the major IOD years are less influential, unlike those of El $Ni\widetilde{n}o$ events.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.184-203
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• 2013

This study analyzes the variability of Korean summer rainfall associated with the tropical low-frequency oscillation using long-term observation data. From the EOF analysis, the first mode showed opposite phase between the South and the North Korea with the regime shift in rainfall variability since the mid-1990s. The summer precipitation over South Korea tends to increase in southern part during strong El Ni$\tilde{n}$o where the warm sea surface temperature extends to far eastern tropical Pacific. In weak La Ni$\tilde{n}$a, the increased precipitation directly influences from the western tropical Pacific to the mid-latitude. In June, the rainfall over South Korea is positively correlated with the Indian Summer Monsoon while in July, it is negatively correlated with the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. In August, highly negative correlation between the rainfall over South Korea and the Indian Summer Monsoon is found.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.369-379
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• 2002

The characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation associated with the cool and wet summer of 1993 and the warm and dry summer of 1994 are investigated by analyzing the atmospheric circulations features in the upper and lower troposphere and by examining the global SST and associated tropical convective precipitation fields. The negative geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa and 200 hPa in 1993 over East Asia, the central North Pacific, and the western United States were replaced by positive ones in 1994. In addition, the 200 hPa zonal wind anomaly averaged over the East Asian summer monsoon region is negatively correlated with the Korean summer temperature anomaly. The subtropical jet stream in 1993 was displaced into the central part of Korea well south of its normal position. The western Pacific subtropical high was shifted southward, and the East Asian summer rainfall and temperature was above-normal and below-normal, respectively due to the southwestward extension of a cold and dry polar airmass from the Sea of Okhotsk to the Est Sea. In contrast, the subtropical jet stream in 1994 was displaced well north of its normal position. The abrupt northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high was accompanied with the rapid northward movement of the rain band of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The anomaly patterns of the East Asia summer rainfall and temperature were opposite to those of 1993. Large sea surface temperature anomalies of opposite signs existed in the tropical Pacific with a mature El $Ni{\~{n}o$ in 1993 and a weak La $Ni{\~{n}a$ condition in 1994. The role of the anomalous convective precipitation in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean related with the variations in the low-level cross-equatorial flow along the northwestern periphery of the Australian high and the Mascarene high is probably to influence a large-scale atmospheric circulation over the East Asia during both the years.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.112-122
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• 1993

Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.