• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과지도

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A Study on the Establishment of Korean Regional Nuclear Safety Offices (원자력안전 지역사무소 설치 타당성 평가 : 시스템 다이내믹스 접근법)

  • Kim, Seong-Ho;Song, I.J.;Choi, Y.S.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.253-258
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    • 2008
  • 우리나라에서 원자력 시설의 안전 확보를 위한 현장 규제는 원전 부지내에 설치되어 운용되고 있는 주재관실과 방사능 재난 발생에 대응하기 위한 현장방사능방재지휘센터 등으로 분산되어 있다. 원유 고유가, 에너지 안보, 및 기후 변화 협약 등에 대한 대응책으로, 신규 원자력 시설의 건설이 진행 중에 있으며, 이에 따라 원자력 규제 대상이 증가하고 있다. 지역주민이 신뢰하는 원자력 시설의 안전 규제의 필요성에 따라 현장 규제의 업무량도 증가하고 현장 규제 요건도 강화되고 있는 추세이다. 분산되어 있는 원자력 안전규제 시스템을 통합적인 체계로 전환하기 위한 방안들 가운데, 이 연구에서는 규제의 효율성/효과성을 향상시키기 위해 원자력 안전 지역사무소의 설치가 고려되었다. 이 연구의 주요 목적은 시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 지역사무소 설치의 타당성 모델을 제시하는 것이다. 이 SD 모델을 통해 지역사무소 설치가 규제 효과성을 포함한 다른 변수들에 미치는 영향을 전체론적 (holistic) 관점에서 평가할 수 있다. 이 SD 모델에서 이해관계자 (예: 중앙행정기관, 규제기관, 지방자지단체, NGO, 국민 등) 각각의 우선적인 목표는 갈등적 다중목표가 된다. 이러한 다중목표는 원자력 안전 규제의 의사결정 단계에서 거버넌스(governance) 체제 (예: 규제 기관, 사업자, 지역주민 등이 참여하는 체제)의 구축, 원자력 관련 민원 해결을 통해 성취될 수 있다. 시스템 다이내믹스 접근법의 주요 변수 정의 단계에서는 다양한 관점의 상호영향을 고려하면서 지역사무소 설치에 필요한 기본 개념이 도출되었다. 시스템 다이내믹스 접근법의 모델링 단계에서는 이들 기본 개념에서부터 지역사무소 설치 타당성 정책의 인과 지도(causal map)가 작성되었다. 이러한 인과 지도들로부터 지역사무소의 설치 타당성으로 이끄는 다양한 자기-강화 (self-reinforcing) 루프들이 발견되었다.

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Development of Causal Map for Sustainable Transportation Facilities Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 지속가능한 교통시설 인과지도 개발)

  • Bae, Jin Hee;Park, Hee-Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.953-959
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    • 2015
  • The global warming caused by consumption of fossil fuel and energy has been interested. Therefore, several policies and regulations have been discussed to reduce greenhouse gas emission and effective energy consumption. The construction industry that takes 45% of energy consumption makes efforts to develop green construction methods and materials and reuseable energy. However, there is no common definition to calculate greenhouse gas and database in the construction industry. Especially, transportation infrastructure like road, railway, harbor, and airport consumes 21% energy of construction facilities. Therefore, this paper develops the causal relationship to define performance of sustainable road construction and maintenance. The performance indices are grouped into economic, social, and envirionmental impacts. Then, the causal map is developed based on survey results of construction experts. This will provide the baseline to evaluate the performance of sustainable construction and to establish the objective goals.

Regional Balanced Development Policy Leverage in the Capital and Non-Capital Areas : Focusing on Local Function Concentration and Dispersion Structure (수도권과 비수도권의 지역균형발전 정책 레버리지 탐색 : 지역의 기능 집중·분산 구조를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jin-Hee;Lee, Man-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.502-512
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    • 2019
  • To examine the problem structure of balanced regional development policy and identify the causes of the gap between the capital and non-capital areas, this study examined the causal structure in terms of the concentration and distribution of functions in the metropolitan area and non-capital area and explored the policy leverage. As a research method, the causal map was drawn using System Dynamics techniques and policy leverage was derived through an exploration of the feedback structure. In particular, the causes of the problems in balanced regional development policies were approached by system accidents rather than by single-circuit accidents, and causality analysis was performed among the variables constituting balanced regional development policies based on system accidents. In particular, it singled out 31 variables, developed 13 feedback loops, and confirmed four major policy leverages, including relocation of the capital function, local decentralization policies, consistent development, and investment practices centered on the Non­Capital Area. Subsequently, a follow-up study by computer simulation is needed by modeling the structure of the system to identify the ripple effect of the policies of the Capital Area on the Non­Capital Area.

An Improvement of Coherence and Validity between CLD and SFD of System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스의 CLD와 SFD의 일관성 및 타당성 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jae Un;Kim, Hyun Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2014
  • System Dynamics(SD) is one of the complexity theories that has attracted attention as a computer-aided simulation methodology to analyze a dynamic problem and to develop a policy(strategy) in social science. Though there are properly unproven cases in research models which were developed in various fields by SD methodology during the last five decades, they are utilized as models to represent SD sub-theories. For this reason, this study targeted the population dynamics model which was frequently utilized to explain SD fundamentals and it proved errors of reasoning a structure of the existing causal and dominant feedback loop. Consequently, we presented a strategy to strengthen the coherence between CLD(causal loop diagram) and SFD(stocks-and-flows diagram) for improving validity of the existing model. The findings of this study contribute to the advancement of the existing SD and to the reinforcement of validation for policy research models of SD.

Dynamic Analysis on the Host regional Effects of before and after Mega-Events (메가 이벤트 개최 전후 개최지역에 미치는 효과에 관한 동태적 분석)

  • Park, Bok-Jae;Moon, Young-Soo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.289-307
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    • 2015
  • This study was to analyze dynamics of host regional effect in accordance with Mega-events. Yeosu Expo, 2012 was the Mega-event, and dynamic changes in economic indicators such as number of tourists, GRDP, employment rate, and real estate price were analyzed before and after the event. The Mega-event affected positively and increased on the number of tourists. While GRDP affected positively only right before the event, and the employment rate was not significantly affected by the event. The real estate price was increased from the announced time of hosting to the event held, but later decreased. This study suggested the comprehensive method for analyzing the effect of Mega-event and there was a cyclical causality among the result variables.

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A Study on the Alternative Plan for Prevention of Marine Accident using System Dynamic (SD법을 이용한 해양사고 예방의 정책대안 분석)

  • Keum, Jong-Soo;Jang, Woon-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.10 no.2 s.21
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2004
  • Ship is bring operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related whit marine accident and those factors are interacting. An analysis on the marine accident is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. This paper aims to build a model of the causes and improved policy for marine accident using SD(System Dynamics} approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of marine accident. The methodology of this paper is to perform the causes and improved policy for marine accident using Brainstorming method and was to changed by quantitutive, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 23 years($1997\~2020$) in a standard simulation model and 4 policy simulation models.

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Analysis of Conceptions Related to Earth System and Systems-Thinking of High School Student about Water Cycle (물의 순환에 대한 고등학생들의 지구시스템 관련 개념과 시스템 사고의 분석)

  • Kang, Chun-duk;Lee, Hyo-nyong;Yoon, Ill-Hee;Kim, Eun-ju
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of the study is to research students' proficiency with systems-thinking approach concerning water cycles and to acquire data on Earth System-related concepts based on students' feedback. To achieve the purpose of the study, I chose 4 mid-level high school juniors living in Pohang, where the high school equalization policy has not been implemented, and the students answered a questionnaire about water cycles. Then, based on the results, I created a causal map and evaluated it using systems-thinking analysis. The results of the study are as follows: First of all, among the answers of the subjects, there were 21 concepts related to the conception of the earth system : 14 of the conceptions were linked scientifically, and 7 of the conceptions were not linked scientifically. Secondly, results of the causal map of what the subjects described showed that only two students'(A and C) feedback loops were completed, and that student C's feedback loop included unscientific reasoning. In conclusion, this study indicated that the students failed to understand the water cycle with the systems-thinking approach, or alternatively they applied low-level systems-thinking approach and had a lower understanding of it.

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Feasibility Model Development by Applying System Dynamics Method in Residential Officetel (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 오피스텔 사업타당성 분석 모델 개발)

  • Jang, Jun-Ho;Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Kyeong-Ryoung;Son, Ki-Young;Son, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Taick-Oun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2018
  • Due to the low interest rates of banks according to the breakdown economy after the global financial crisis in 2008 As a substitute for financial products, the investment demand has been increased for rentable investment funds such as commercial building and officetel. However, the problems such as oversupply, decrease of a rental profit and negative perception of development projects have been occurred. One of the primary problems is the existing deterministic method of project feasibility analysis. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop feasibility model by applying system dynamics method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective, first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the feasibility model is developed through the causal loop diagram. Fourth, the effectiveness is validated and compared to collected actual data. The proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

Simulating Carbon Storage Dynamics of Trees on the Artificial Ground (시뮬레이션을 통한 인공지반 교목의 탄소저장량 변화)

  • You, Soo-Jin;Song, Ki-Hwan;Park, Samuel;Kim, Se-Young;Chon, Jin-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2017
  • To successfully create a low-carbon landscape in order to become a low-carbon city, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of artificial greening's resources on a multi-scale. Additionally, the effects of carbon storage should be quantitatively evaluated. The purpose of this study is to simulate and evaluate the changes in carbon storages of artificial ground trees using system dynamics throughout a long-term period. The process consisted of analyzing the dynamics of the multi-scale carbon cycle by using a casual loop diagram as well as simulating carbon storage changes in the green roof of the Gangnam-gu office building in 2008, 2018, 2028, and 2038. Results of the study are as follows. First, the causal loop diagram representing the relationship between the carbon storage of the artificial ground trees and the urban carbon cycle demonstrates that the carbon storage of the trees possess mutual cross-scale dynamics. Second, the main variables for the simulation model collected 'Biomass,' 'Carbon storage,' 'Dead organic matter,' and 'Carbon absorption,'and validated a high coefficient of determination, the value being ($R^2$=0.725, p<0.05). Third, as a result of the simulation model, we found that the variation in ranking of tree species was changing over time. This study also suggested the specific species of tree-such as Acer palmatum var. amoenum, Pinus densiflora, and Betula platyphylla-are used to improve the carbon storage in the green roof of the Gangnam-gu office building. This study can help contribute to developing quantitative and scientific criteria when designing, managing, and developing programs on low-carbon landscapes.

Exploratory Study on Causality of Expansion Strategy into Emerging Market: Systems Thinking Approach (이머징 마켓 진출 전략의 인과관계에 대한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 사고에 의한 접근)

  • Chung, Chang-Kwon;Lee, Dong-Hyun
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.67-98
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    • 2012
  • This study suggests a set of Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) of Causality Mechanism which integrates the matter of characteristics of emerging market and its expansion strategies. In order to make CLD more objective, all causalities are articulated from recent 55 studies (2000~2012) of SSCI Top Journals. This approach is valuable in that it is a first try to draw all the causalities from rigorous literature review regarding emerging market strategy. The 5 CLDs will show and clarify the strategies of how to expand into emerging market for MNCs. In sum, political activity and institutional void is a critical factor related to characteristics of emerging market, and CSV and cultural distance should be considered as a leverage point. For all this study's contribution to clarify the causality of emerging market strategies with abundant literature review, the study has its limits in integrating and testing CLD.

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