• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과관계검정

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한국의 전력소비와 경제성장의 인과관계 분석

  • Jo, Jeong-Hwan;Gang, Man-Ok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.573-593
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    • 2012
  • The paper examined the relationship between total and sector level electricity consumptions and economic growth in Korea for the period of 1980-2009. The results of unit-roots and cointegration tests show that all variables-real GDP, total, primary, manufacture, and service sector electricity consumptions-were not stationary and there were no linear combinations in the long run between electricity consumptions and economic growth. Thus, by using standard Granger-causality test we found that total, primary, and manufacture sector electricity consumptions were Granger-caused by economic growth, not vice versa. This means that causality runs from economic growth to each electricity consumption. However, there is no causal relationship between service sector electricity consumption and economic growth. These results imply that the government policies aimed at reducing electricity consumptions and increasing energy efficiency etc. can be feasible without deterring economic growth in Korea.

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A Study on Attitudes and Acceptance of Port Digital Transformation (항만 디지털 전환에 대한 수용태도와 수용성에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Hyeon-Deok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.155-178
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to derive factors that affect the acceptance of digital transformation in ports and empirically analyze the impact of these factors on the acceptance of digital transformation through a survey of port workers. Additionally, we test whether acceptance attitude plays a mediating role in the relationship between these factors and digital transformation acceptance. The variables used in this study are as follows. First, knowledge, self-efficacy, and involvement were included as variables related to individual characteristics, relative advantages, complexity, observability were included as variables related to innovation characteristics, and government regulations and competitor pressure were included as variables relate to environmental characteristics, so that a total of eight latent variables were selected. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, two variables among individual characteristics, self-efficacy and involvement, were able to confirm a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and knowledge initially expected a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, but the result was a negative(-) causal relationship, so that the hypothesis was rejected. Second, among the characteristics of innovation, complexity has a negative(-) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and relative advantages and technological innovation have a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. Finally, among the environmental characteristics, government regulations and competitor pressure, confirmed a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. In addition, it was found that the attitude of accepting digital transformation had a positive(+) causal relationship with personal acceptance and social acceptance of digital transformation.

A study on the time-varying causal relationship between the housing sales market and the jeonse market in Seoul (서울 주택 매매시장과 전세시장의 시간가변적인 인과관계에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Chul hong;Park, Jinbaek
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the causal relationship between housing sales prices and jeonse prices in Seoul, specifically in the Gangnam and Gangbuk neighborhoods. The time-invariant Granger causality test showed bidirectional causality between the sales price and the jeonse price in Seoul and Gangbuk, but no bidirectional causality was found in Gangnam. However, the time-varying Granger causality test showed a Granger causal relationship between the housing jeonse price and the sales price for the entire period after 1993 in all three areas. Notably, the causal effect of jeonse prices on sales prices has been continuous in Gangnam since 2010. These analysis results suggest that an increase in liquidity supply to the jeonse market could increase volatility throughout the housing market, given the strong influence between the sales and jeonse markets in both directions.

An Empirical Study on the Causalities and Effects between Inbound Tourism and Service Industry GDP in China (국제 인바운드 관광과 중국내 서비스 산업 GDP간의 인과관계 및 효과에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Sup
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.363-387
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    • 2010
  • This papers studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between inbound tourism(TOU) and the production amount of service industry in China, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, and VECM. we take their natural logarithm and define them as TOU and SGDP: these represent the distributed variable based the lagged values of the number of international tourists by continent and real production amount in service industry of China, respectively. The results of empirical study of this papers are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root test, we found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. This result made me use 1st differenced data for this empirical study. Secondly, in the Granger casuality test, the study results show that there is unilateral casuality relation between DLSGDP-$DLTOU_i$ except DLSGDP-DLTOUL model for the same time, while no casuality relation between DLTOU-DLSGDP for all models of China. Thirdly, there is cointegration relation between all models for the period of 1980-2008.

A Causality Analysis between R&D Investment and Technology Trade (R&D 투자와 기술무역 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.91-113
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among R&D spending and variables of technology trade, and to explore promoting R&D activities and revitalizing technology trade. To analyze the causal relationship, we built a multivariate model that consists of government R&D spending, private R&D spending, technical importation and export of techniques, and employed the Granger-causality test based on an error correction model. The results show that there are five Granger-causality relationship among them in the short run, as well as there are eleven Granger-causality relationship among a total of twelve causal relationship, excluding only a unidirectional causality relationship from the government R&D spending to the export of techniques, in the long run. Besides, we attempted the impulse-response analysis on them to observe the reaction of any dynamic system in response to some external change. The significance of this paper is to make sure the causal relationship between R&D investments and the technology trade by analyzing empirically, and to suggest several implications for promoting the R&D activities and revitalizing the technology trade.

A Study on Causality between Trading Volume of Freight and Industrial Growth in Korea Ports (국내 주요항만별 항만물동량과 산업성장의 인과관계)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.159-175
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between trading volume of freight and industrial growth in Korea ports, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model, Hsiao(1981) method and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the extent of causality between trading volume of freight and industrial growth is strong in order of Incheon port, Busan port, Gwang Yang port, Ulsan port. We can infer policy suggestions as follows; The port policy of government must be focused on re-adjusting investment among Korea ports and raising competitive power of Korea ports

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An Analysis of the Relationship between Market Rates and the Profits of Tramp Shipping (부정기선 해운업의 이윤과 금리의 관계 분석)

  • Choi, Young-Jae;Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the relationship between shipping profit and market return in the tramp trade from January 2000 to October 2014. First, we carry out the causality test and find a causal relationship between the studied variables. Second, the estimates from the Johansen cointegration test show that shipping profit is cointegrated with market return, which implies that a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The empirical results thus imply that shipping firms need diverse risk management strategies.

An Analysis on the Causality between Production Activity and Electricity Consumption in Manufacturing Sector (제조업 생산활동과 전력소비 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Lim, Jaekyu;Kim, Jong-Ik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.349-364
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed Granger causality between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector, by using error correction model. It found that there exists the connection between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector. By reflecting the industrial characteristics, it found not only the bilateral causality (power consumption ${\leftrightarrow}$ production activity) in power non-intensive industry, high value-added industry and low value-added industry, but also one-way causality (power consumption ${\rightarrow}$ production activity) in power-intensive industry. These results imply that power demand management policy focusing on efficiency improvement is necessary primarily to minimize negative impacts on production activity, and also stable power supply system is required to meet the increase of power demand.

A Study on Causality among Trading Volume of Pyeongtaek Port, Incheon Inner Harbor and Incheon North Harbor (인천내항, 인천북항, 평택항간 물동량의 인과관계 분석)

  • Yoo, Heonjong;Ahn, Seung-Bum
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.255-273
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship among the trading volume of Pyeongtaek port, Incheon Inner Harbor, Incheon North Harbor. Methodologically, Granger causality, impulse response function, and variance decomposition based on VAR are used. The results indicate that Pyeongtaek port trading volume positive shock has positive effects on Incheon North Harbor. In addition, Incheon Inner Harbor trading volumes positive shock has negative effects on Pyeongtaek port. The results also suggest that the volume of Pyeongtaek port Granger-causes the volume of Incheon North Harbor, but not vice versa. The volume of Incheon Inner Harbor Granger-causes the volume of Pyeongtaek port. Based on these results, we suggest that port authorities have to focus on policies that would promote copetition between port of Pyeongtaek and Incheon in the world harbor industry.