• Title/Summary/Keyword: 의사결정기법

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A Study on the New Branding and Customer Integration of the M&A Process : Focused on the Brand Name and Membership System of Two Companies (인수합병 과정의 브랜드 및 고객 통합에 관한 연구 : 백화점의 브랜드 네임 및 회원 통합을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Gyu-Bae
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2012
  • Many studies have focused on the importance of organizational integration when companies try to achieve growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, there has been little research that focuses on the new branding or customer base integration of the M&A process, despite the fact that this integration is very important for achieving M&A goals and business performance in industries such as retail. The purpose of this study is to provide an M&A case study of the retail industry, focused especially on the new branding and customer integration of two department stores. This study examined key integration processes in terms of brand name and membership systems of both companies by examining how the merged company achieved its new branding and the integration of its membership systems. The methodology of this research is the case study, which is used in both normative and empirical studies for distribution research in Korea. This research analyzes the case of both new branding and customer membership systems of the two companies. The new branding initiatives of this case centered on decision making including brand extension and brand naming. The customer membership integration of the two companies is analyzed on the basis of the customer reward programs that include both financial and service rewards. This study shows the success factors of new branding and customer integration in the M&A process in terms of achieving marketing goals and business performance as follows: First, companies should identify the integration areas by analyzing the brand and membership of both companies and make a balanced decision for both the customer and company. Second, the goals of new branding and membership integration in the M&A process should not emphasize business efficiency from a short-term perspective but rather should consider brand power and business synergy from a long-term perspective. Third, the post-merger integration process of the brand or customer areas requires not only the organized execution of integration tasks but also follow-up programs for changes in business strategy and marketing-related programs to realize the synergy effects of integrated organization. Although this study provides a detailed review and analysis of the new branding and customer integration processes in post-merger integration and in identifying the primary decision-making areas of these processes, there are some limitations requiring further research that may overcome or compensate for these limitations. The suggested future research areas are as follows: First, since this research is a case study of only one M&A, it makes few theoretical contributions such as new propositions or theories or possibilities for generalization. This limitation can be overcome through further research using multiple cases, which may lead to new propositions. Second, the methodology of this study lacks sufficient rigor in terms of its analytic approach because this case study was developed and analyzed descriptively. Further research is needed to compensate for these limitations, such as using a theory-based approach or comparative analysis approach that makes case analysis more systematic.

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A Study on the Ecosystem Services Value Assessment According to City Development: In Case of the Busan Eco-Delta City Development (도시개발에 따른 생태계서비스 가치 평가 연구: 부산 에코델타시티 사업을 대상으로)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Youngsoo;Lee, Sangdon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.427-439
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    • 2019
  • Natural environmental ecology ofthe environmental impact assessment(EIA)is very much lacking in quantitative evaluation. Thus, this study attempted to evaluate quantitative assessment for ecosystem service in the site of Eco-delta project in Busan. As a part of climate change adaptation, this study evaluated and compared with the value for carbon fixation and habitat quality using the InVEST model before and after development with three alternatives of land-use change. Carbon fixation showed 216,674.48 Mg of C (year 2000), and 203,474.25 Mg of C (year 2015)reducing about 6.1%, and in the future of year 2030 the value was dropped to 120,490.84 Mg of C which is 40% lower than year 2015. Alternative 3 of land use planning was the best in terms of carbon fixation showing 6,811.31 Mg of C. Habitat quality also changed from 0.57 (year 2000), 0.35 (year 2015), and 0.21 (year 2030) with continued degradation as development goes further. Alternative 3 also was the highest with 0.21(Alternative 1 : 0.20, Alternative 2 : 0.18). In conclusion,this study illustrated that quantitative method forland use change in the process of EIA can helpdecision making for stakeholders anddevelopers with serving the best scenario forlow impact of carbon. Also it can help better for land use plan, greenhouse gas and natural environmental assets in EIA. This study could be able to use in the environmental policy with numerical data of ecosystem and prediction. Supplemented with detailed analysis and accessibility of basic data, this method will make it possible for wide application in the ecosystem evaluation.

The Effect of the Characteristics of Agri-Food Open Market on the Repurchase Intention: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Innovation (농식품 오픈 마켓 특성이 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향: 혁신성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sangmi;Ha, Gyusu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2021
  • With the disappearance of boundaries between online and offline, the O2O(online to offline) platform service is rapidly growing. Unlike general products, freshness is an important decision-making factor for agri-food, and there are many limiting factors for growth as an open market among O2O platforms due to the characteristics of difficult refunds and exchanges compared to other items and new transaction methods. In order to overcome these obstacles, consumer innovation must be considered. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of O2O(online to offline) platform characteristics perception on agri-food repurchase intentions. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. For this purpose, Using a convenience sampling technique, an online survey was conducted through Google survey from April 1 to April 15, 2021. A total of final analysis data were collected from a total of 270 purchase experienced of agri-food O2O(online to offline) platform. The SPSS program was used for analysis, and multiple regression analysis was used for hypothesis verification. The results showed that Economic, Interaction, and Playfulness had a significant positive effect on agri-food repurchase intend. Also, Interactivity × innovation, playfulness × innovation were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on repurchase intention. The results of this study show that innovation reduces the burden on consumers for new systems and mobile transactions. The results of this study suggest that convenient interface design is important for activating O2O transactions of agri-food. In addition, education and support are needed to strengthen the IT competency of farmers. The results of this study will be able to contribute to the establishment of infrastructure for agri-food open market shopping malls. In future studies, the influence of the O2O platform type on the purchase intention should be studied continuously.

Analysis of Evaluator's Role and Capability for Institution Accreditation Evaluation of NCS-based Vocational Competency Development Training (NCS 기반 직업능력개발훈련 기관인증평가를 위한 평가자의 역할과 역량 분석)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Lee, Hee-Su
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to derive evaluator's role and capability for institution accreditation evaluation of NCS-based vocational competency development training. This study attempted to explore in various ways evaluator's minute roles using Delphi method, and to derive knowledge, skill, attitude and integrity needed to verify the validity. To the end, this study conducted the Delphi research for over three rounds by selecting education training professionals and review evaluation professions as professional panels. From the results, roles of evaluators were defined as the total eight items including operator, moderator-mediator, cooperator, analyzer, verifier, institution evaluator, institution consultant, and learner, and the derived capabilities with respect to each role were 25 items in total. The area of knowledge included four items of capabilities such as HRD knowledge, NCS knowledge, knowledge of vocational competency development training, and knowledge of training institution accreditation evaluation, and the area of skill comprised fourteen items of capabilities such as conflict management ability, interpersonal relation ability, word processing ability, problem-solving ability, analysis ability, pre-preparation ability, time management ability, decision making ability, information comprehension and utilization ability, comprehensive thinking ability, understanding ability of vocational competency development training institutions, communication ability, feedback ability, and core understanding ability. The area of attitude was summarized with the seven items in total including subjectivity and fairness, service mind, sense of calling, ethics, self-development, responsibility, and teamwork. The knowledge, skill and attitude derived from the results of this study may be utilized to design and provide education programs conducive to qualitative and systematic accreditation and assessment to evaluators equipped with essential prerequisites. It is finally expected that this study will be helpful for designing module education programs by ability and for managing evaluator's quality in order to perform pre-service education and in-service education according to evaluator's experience and role.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Analysis of the Effects of E-commerce User Ratings and Review Helfulness on Performance Improvement of Product Recommender System (E-커머스 사용자의 평점과 리뷰 유용성이 상품 추천 시스템의 성능 향상에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • FAN, LIU;Lee, Byunghyun;Choi, Ilyoung;Jeong, Jaeho;Kim, Jaekyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.311-328
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    • 2022
  • Because of the spread of smartphones due to the development of information and communication technology, online shopping mall services can be used on computers and mobile devices. As a result, the number of users using the online shopping mall service increases rapidly, and the types of products traded are also growing. Therefore, to maximize profits, companies need to provide information that may interest users. To this end, the recommendation system presents necessary information or products to the user based on the user's past behavioral data or behavioral purchase records. Representative overseas companies that currently provide recommendation services include Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube. These companies support users' purchase decisions by recommending products to users using ratings, purchase records, and clickstream data that users give to the items. In addition, users refer to the ratings left by other users about the product before buying a product. Most users tend to provide ratings only to products they are satisfied with, and the higher the rating, the higher the purchase intention. And recently, e-commerce sites have provided users with the ability to vote on whether product reviews are helpful. Through this, the user makes a purchase decision by referring to reviews and ratings of products judged to be beneficial. Therefore, in this study, the correlation between the product rating and the helpful information of the review is identified. The valuable data of the evaluation is reflected in the recommendation system to check the recommendation performance. In addition, we want to compare the results of skipping all the ratings in the traditional collaborative filtering technique with the recommended performance results that reflect only the 4 and 5 ratings. For this purpose, electronic product data collected from Amazon was used in this study, and the experimental results confirmed a correlation between ratings and review usefulness information. In addition, as a result of comparing the recommendation performance by reflecting all the ratings and only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system, the recommendation performance of remembering only the 4 and 5 points in the recommendation system was higher. In addition, as a result of reflecting review usefulness information in the recommendation system, it was confirmed that the more valuable the review, the higher the recommendation performance. Therefore, these experimental results are expected to improve the performance of personalized recommendation services in the future and provide implications for e-commerce sites.

Development of 1ST-Model for 1 hour-heavy rain damage scale prediction based on AI models (1시간 호우피해 규모 예측을 위한 AI 기반의 1ST-모형 개발)

  • Lee, Joonhak;Lee, Haneul;Kang, Narae;Hwang, Seokhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.311-323
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    • 2023
  • In order to reduce disaster damage by localized heavy rains, floods, and urban inundation, it is important to know in advance whether natural disasters occur. Currently, heavy rain watch and heavy rain warning by the criteria of the Korea Meteorological Administration are being issued in Korea. However, since this one criterion is applied to the whole country, we can not clearly recognize heavy rain damage for a specific region in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to reset the current criteria for a special weather report which considers the regional characteristics and to predict the damage caused by rainfall after 1 hour. The study area was selected as Gyeonggi-province, where has more frequent heavy rain damage than other regions. Then, the rainfall inducing disaster or hazard-triggering rainfall was set by utilizing hourly rainfall and heavy rain damage data, considering the local characteristics. The heavy rain damage prediction model was developed by a decision tree model and a random forest model, which are machine learning technique and by rainfall inducing disaster and rainfall data. In addition, long short-term memory and deep neural network models were used for predicting rainfall after 1 hour. The predicted rainfall by a developed prediction model was applied to the trained classification model and we predicted whether the rain damage after 1 hour will be occurred or not and we called this as 1ST-Model. The 1ST-Model can be used for preventing and preparing heavy rain disaster and it is judged to be of great contribution in reducing damage caused by heavy rain.

Health Assessment of the Nakdong River Basin Aquatic Ecosystems Utilizing GIS and Spatial Statistics (GIS 및 공간통계를 활용한 낙동강 유역 수생태계의 건강성 평가)

  • JO, Myung-Hee;SIM, Jun-Seok;LEE, Jae-An;JANG, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.174-189
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to reconstruct spatial information using the results of the investigation and evaluation of the health of the living organisms, habitat, and water quality at the investigation points for the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, to support the rational decision making of the aquatic ecosystem preservation and restoration policies of the Nakdong River basin using spatial analysis techniques, and to present efficient management methods. To analyze the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, punctiform data were constructed based on the position information of each point with the aquatic ecosystem health investigation and evaluation results of 250 investigation sections. To apply the spatial analysis technique, the data need to be reconstructed into areal data. For this purpose, spatial influence and trends were analyzed using the Kriging interpolation(ArcGIS 10.1, Geostatistical Analysis), and were reconstructed into areal data. To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the Nakdong River basin health based on these analytical results, hotspot(Getis-Ord Gi, $G^*_i$), LISA(Local Indicator of Spatial Association), and standard deviational ellipse analyses were used. The hotspot analysis results showed that the hotspot basins of the biotic indices(TDI, BMI, FAI) were the Andong Dam upstream, Wangpicheon, and the Imha Dam basin, and that the health grades of their biotic indices were good. The coldspot basins were Nakdong River Namhae, the Nakdong River mouth, and the Suyeong River basin. The LISA analysis results showed that the exceptional areas were Gahwacheon, the Hapcheon Dam, and the Yeong River upstream basin. These areas had high bio-health indices, but their surrounding basins were low and required management for aquatic ecosystem health. The hotspot basins of the physicochemical factor(BOD) were the Nakdong River downstream basin, Suyeong River, Hoeya River, and the Nakdong River Namhae basin, whereas the coldspot basins were the upstream basins of the Nakdong River tributaries, including Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and Yeong River. The hotspots of the habitat and riverside environment factor(HRI) were different from the hotspots and coldspots of each factor in the LISA analysis results. In general, the habitat and riverside environment of the Nakdong River mainstream and tributaries, including the Nakdong river upstream, Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and the Hapcheon Dam basin, had good health. The coldspot basins of the habitat and riverside environment also showed low health indices of the biotic indices and physicochemical factors, thus requiring management of the habitat and riverside environment. As a result of the time-series analysis with a standard deviation ellipsoid, the areas with good aquatic ecosystem health of the organisms, habitat, and riverside environment showed a tendency to move northward, and the BOD results showed different directions and concentrations by the year of investigation. These aquatic ecosystem health analysis results can provide not only the health management information for each investigation spot but also information for managing the aquatic ecosystem in the catchment unit for the working research staff as well as for the water environment researchers in the future, based on spatial information.

A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering with Selective Use of Overall and Multicriteria Ratings (종합 평점과 다기준 평점을 선택적으로 활용하는 협업필터링 기반 하이브리드 추천 시스템)

  • Ku, Min Jung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.85-109
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    • 2018
  • Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.

A Study on Market Size Estimation Method by Product Group Using Word2Vec Algorithm (Word2Vec을 활용한 제품군별 시장규모 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ye Lim;Kim, Ji Hui;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.