Predicting the Direction of the Stock Index by Using a Domain-Specific Sentiment Dictionary (주가지수 방향성 예측을 위한 주제지향 감성사전 구축 방안)
-
- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
- /
- v.19 no.1
- /
- pp.95-110
- /
- 2013
Recently, the amount of unstructured data being generated through a variety of social media has been increasing rapidly, resulting in the increasing need to collect, store, search for, analyze, and visualize this data. This kind of data cannot be handled appropriately by using the traditional methodologies usually used for analyzing structured data because of its vast volume and unstructured nature. In this situation, many attempts are being made to analyze unstructured data such as text files and log files through various commercial or noncommercial analytical tools. Among the various contemporary issues dealt with in the literature of unstructured text data analysis, the concepts and techniques of opinion mining have been attracting much attention from pioneer researchers and business practitioners. Opinion mining or sentiment analysis refers to a series of processes that analyze participants' opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions about selected products, services, organizations, social issues, and so on. In other words, many attempts based on various opinion mining techniques are being made to resolve complicated issues that could not have otherwise been solved by existing traditional approaches. One of the most representative attempts using the opinion mining technique may be the recent research that proposed an intelligent model for predicting the direction of the stock index. This model works mainly on the basis of opinions extracted from an overwhelming number of economic news repots. News content published on various media is obviously a traditional example of unstructured text data. Every day, a large volume of new content is created, digitalized, and subsequently distributed to us via online or offline channels. Many studies have revealed that we make better decisions on political, economic, and social issues by analyzing news and other related information. In this sense, we expect to predict the fluctuation of stock markets partly by analyzing the relationship between economic news reports and the pattern of stock prices. So far, in the literature on opinion mining, most studies including ours have utilized a sentiment dictionary to elicit sentiment polarity or sentiment value from a large number of documents. A sentiment dictionary consists of pairs of selected words and their sentiment values. Sentiment classifiers refer to the dictionary to formulate the sentiment polarity of words, sentences in a document, and the whole document. However, most traditional approaches have common limitations in that they do not consider the flexibility of sentiment polarity, that is, the sentiment polarity or sentiment value of a word is fixed and cannot be changed in a traditional sentiment dictionary. In the real world, however, the sentiment polarity of a word can vary depending on the time, situation, and purpose of the analysis. It can also be contradictory in nature. The flexibility of sentiment polarity motivated us to conduct this study. In this paper, we have stated that sentiment polarity should be assigned, not merely on the basis of the inherent meaning of a word but on the basis of its ad hoc meaning within a particular context. To implement our idea, we presented an intelligent investment decision-support model based on opinion mining that performs the scrapping and parsing of massive volumes of economic news on the web, tags sentiment words, classifies sentiment polarity of the news, and finally predicts the direction of the next day's stock index. In addition, we applied a domain-specific sentiment dictionary instead of a general purpose one to classify each piece of news as either positive or negative. For the purpose of performance evaluation, we performed intensive experiments and investigated the prediction accuracy of our model. For the experiments to predict the direction of the stock index, we gathered and analyzed 1,072 articles about stock markets published by "M" and "E" media between July 2011 and September 2011.
Purpose: The purpose of this work was to investigate the dosimetric impact of mixed energy partial arc technique on prostate cancer VMAT. Materials and Methods: This study involved prostate only patients planned with 70Gy in 30 fractions to the planning target volume (PTV). Femoral heads, Bladder and Rectum were considered as oragan at risk (OARs). For this study, mixed energy partial arcs (MEPA) were generated with gantry angle set to 180°~230°, 310°~50° for 6MV arc and 130°~50°, 310°~230° for 15MV arc. Each arc set the avoidance sector which is gantry angle 230°~310°, 50°~130° at first arc and 50°~310° at second arc. After that, two plans were summed and were analyzed the dosimetry parameter of each structure such as Maximum dose, Mean dose, D2%, Homogeneity index (HI) and Conformity Index (CI) for PTV and Maximum dose, Mean dose, V70Gy, V50Gy, V30Gy, and V20Gy for OARs and Monitor Unit (MU) with 6MV 1 ARC, 6MV, 10MV, 15MV 2 ARC plan. Results: In MEPA, the maximum dose, mean dose and D2% were lower than 6MV 1 ARC plan(p<0.0005). However, the average difference of maximum dose was 0.24%, 0.39%, 0.60% (p<0.450, 0.321, 0.139) higher than 6MV, 10MV, 15MV 2 ARC plan, respectively and D2% was 0.42%, 0.49%, 0.59% (p<0.073, 0.087, 0.033) higher than compared plans. The average difference of mean dose was 0.09% lower than 10MV 2 ARC plan, but it is 0.27%, 0.12% (p<0.184, 0.521) higher than 6MV 2 ARC, 15MV 2 ARC plan, respectively. HI was 0.064±0.006 which is the lowest value (p<0.005, 0.357, 0.273, 0.801) among the all plans. For CI, there was no significant differences which were 1.12±0.038 in MEPA, 1.12±0.036, 1.11±0.024, 1.11±0.030, 1.12±0.027 in 6MV 1 ARC, 6MV, 10MV, 15MV 2 ARC, respectively. MEPA produced significantly lower rectum dose. Especially, V70Gy, V50Gy, V30Gy, V20Gy were 3.40, 16.79, 37.86, 48.09 that were lower than other plans. For bladder dose, V30Gy, V20Gy were lower than other plans. However, the mean dose of both femoral head were 9.69±2.93, 9.88±2.5 which were 2.8Gy~3.28Gy higher than other plans. The mean MU of MEPA were 19.53% lower than 6MV 1 ARC, 5.7% lower than 10MV 2 ARC respectively. Conclusion: This study for prostate radiotherapy demonstrated that a choice of MEPA VMAT has the potential to minimize doses to OARs and improve homogeneity to PTV at the expense of a moderate increase in maximum and mean dose to the femoral heads.
With the MICE(Meeting, Incentive travel, Convention, Exhibition) industry coming into the spotlight, there has been a growing interest in the domestic exhibition industry. Accordingly, in Korea, various studies of the industry are being conducted to enhance exhibition performance as in the United States or Europe. Some studies are focusing particularly on analyzing visiting patterns of exhibition visitors using intelligent information technology in consideration of the variations in effects of watching exhibitions according to the exhibitory environment or technique, thereby understanding visitors and, furthermore, drawing the correlations between exhibiting businesses and improving exhibition performance. However, previous studies related to booth recommendation systems only discussed the accuracy of recommendation in the aspect of a system rather than determining changes in visitors' behavior or perception by recommendation. A booth recommendation system enables visitors to visit unplanned exhibition booths by recommending visitors suitable ones based on information about visitors' visits. Meanwhile, some visitors may be satisfied with their unplanned visits, while others may consider the recommending process to be cumbersome or obstructive to their free observation. In the latter case, the exhibition is likely to produce worse results compared to when visitors are allowed to freely observe the exhibition. Thus, in order to apply a booth recommendation system to exhibition halls, the factors affecting the performance of the system should be generally examined, and the effects of the system on visitors' unplanned visiting behavior should be carefully studied. As such, this study aims to determine the factors that affect the performance of a booth recommendation system by reviewing theories and literature and to examine the effects of visitors' perceived performance of the system on their satisfaction of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. Toward this end, the unplanned behavior theory was adopted as the theoretical framework. Unplanned behavior can be defined as "behavior that is done by consumers without any prearranged plan". Thus far, consumers' unplanned behavior has been studied in various fields. The field of marketing, in particular, has focused on unplanned purchasing among various types of unplanned behavior, which has been often confused with impulsive purchasing. Nevertheless, the two are different from each other; while impulsive purchasing means strong, continuous urges to purchase things, unplanned purchasing is behavior with purchasing decisions that are made inside a store, not before going into one. In other words, all impulsive purchases are unplanned, but not all unplanned purchases are impulsive. Then why do consumers engage in unplanned behavior? Regarding this question, many scholars have made many suggestions, but there has been a consensus that it is because consumers have enough flexibility to change their plans in the middle instead of developing plans thoroughly. In other words, if unplanned behavior costs much, it will be difficult for consumers to change their prearranged plans. In the case of the exhibition hall examined in this study, visitors learn the programs of the hall and plan which booth to visit in advance. This is because it is practically impossible for visitors to visit all of the various booths that an exhibition operates due to their limited time. Therefore, if the booth recommendation system proposed in this study recommends visitors booths that they may like, they can change their plans and visit the recommended booths. Such visiting behavior can be regarded similarly to consumers' visit to a store or tourists' unplanned behavior in a tourist spot and can be understand in the same context as the recent increase in tourism consumers' unplanned behavior influenced by information devices. Thus, the following research model was established. This research model uses visitors' perceived performance of a booth recommendation system as the parameter, and the factors affecting the performance include trust in the system, exhibition visitors' knowledge levels, expected personalization of the system, and the system's threat to freedom. In addition, the causal relation between visitors' satisfaction of their perceived performance of the system and unplanned behavior and their intention to reuse the system was determined. While doing so, trust in the booth recommendation system consisted of 2nd order factors such as competence, benevolence, and integrity, while the other factors consisted of 1st order factors. In order to verify this model, a booth recommendation system was developed to be tested in 2011 DMC Culture Open, and 101 visitors were empirically studied and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, visitors' trust was the most important factor in the booth recommendation system, and the visitors who used the system perceived its performance as a success based on their trust. Second, visitors' knowledge levels also had significant effects on the performance of the system, which indicates that the performance of a recommendation system requires an advance understanding. In other words, visitors with higher levels of understanding of the exhibition hall learned better the usefulness of the booth recommendation system. Third, expected personalization did not have significant effects, which is a different result from previous studies' results. This is presumably because the booth recommendation system used in this study did not provide enough personalized services. Fourth, the recommendation information provided by the booth recommendation system was not considered to threaten or restrict one's freedom, which means it is valuable in terms of usefulness. Lastly, high performance of the booth recommendation system led to visitors' high satisfaction levels of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. To sum up, in order to analyze the effects of a booth recommendation system on visitors' unplanned visits to a booth, empirical data were examined based on the unplanned behavior theory and, accordingly, useful suggestions for the establishment and design of future booth recommendation systems were made. In the future, further examination should be conducted through elaborate survey questions and survey objects.
Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.
The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.
Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain is a ten-panel folding screen with images and postscripts. Commissioned by Bak Gyeong-bin (dates unknown), this screen was painted by Jo Jung-muk (1820-after 1894) in 1868. The postscripts were written by Hong Seon-ju (dates unknown). The National Museum of Korea restored this painting, which had been housed in the museum on separate sheets, to its original folding screen format. The museum also opened the screen to the public for the first time at the special exhibition Through the Eyes of Joseon Painters: Real Scenery Landscapes of Korea held from July 23 to September 22, 2019. Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain depicts real scenery on the western slopes of Inwangsan Mountain spanning present-day Hongje-dong and Hongeun-dong in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. In the distance, the Bukhansan Mountain ridges are illustrated. The painting also bears place names, including Inwangsan Mountain, Chumohyeon Hill, Hongjewon Inn, Samgaksan Mountain, Daenammun Gate, and Mireukdang Hall. The names and depictions of these places show similarities to those found on late Joseon maps. Jo Jung-muk is thought to have studied the geographical information marked on maps so as to illustrate a broad landscape in this painting. Field trips to the real scenery depicted in the painting have revealed that Jo exaggerated or omitted natural features and blended and arranged them into a row for the purposes of the horizontal picture plane. Jo Jung-muk was a painter proficient at drawing conventional landscapes in the style of the Southern School of Chinese painting. Details in Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain reflect the painting style of the School of Four Wangs. Jo also applied a more decorative style to some areas. The nineteenth-century court painters of the Dohwaseo(Royal Bureau of Painting), including Jo, employed such decorative painting styles by drawing houses based on painting manuals, applying dots formed like sprinkled black pepper to depict mounds of earth and illustrating flowers by dotted thick pigment. Moreover, Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain shows the individualistic style of Jeong Seon(1676~1759) in the rocks drawn with sweeping brushstrokes in dark ink, the massiveness of the mountain terrain, and the pine trees simply depicted using horizontal brushstrokes. Jo Jung-muk is presumed to have borrowed the authority and styles of Jeong Seon, who was well-known for his real scenery landscapes of Inwangsan Mountain. Nonetheless, the painting lacks an spontaneous sense of space and fails in conveying an impression of actual sites. Additionally, the excessively grand screen does not allow Jo Jung-muk to fully express his own style. In Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain, the texts of the postscripts nicely correspond to the images depicted. Their contents can be divided into six parts: (1) the occupant of the tomb and the reason for its relocation; (2) the location and geomancy of the tomb; (3) memorial services held at the tomb and mysterious responses received during the memorial services; (4) cooperation among villagers to manage the tomb; (5) the filial piety of Bak Gyeong-bin, who commissioned the painting and guarded the tomb; and (6) significance of the postscripts. The second part in particular is faithfully depicted in the painting since it can easily be visualized. According to the fifth part revealing the motive for the production of the painting, the commissioner Bak Gyeongbin was satisfied with the painting, stating that "it appears impeccable and is just as if the tomb were newly built." The composition of the natural features in a row as if explaining each one lacks painterly beauty, but it does succeed in providing information on the geomantic topography of the gravesite. A fair number of the existing depictions of gravesites are woodblock prints of family gravesites produced after the eighteenth century. Most of these are included in genealogical records and anthologies. According to sixteenth- and seventeenth-century historical records, hanging scrolls of family gravesites served as objects of worship. Bowing in front of these paintings was considered a substitute ritual when descendants could not physically be present to maintain their parents' or other ancestors' tombs. Han Hyo-won (1468-1534) and Jo Sil-gul (1591-1658) commissioned the production of family burial ground paintings and asked distinguished figures of the time to write a preface for the paintings, thus showing off their filial piety. Such examples are considered precedents for Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain. Hermitage of the Recluse Seokjeong in a private collection and Old Villa in Hwagae County at the National Museum of Korea are not paintings of family gravesites. However, they serve as references for seventeenth-century paintings depicting family gravesites in that they are hanging scrolls in the style of the paintings of literary gatherings and they illustrate geomancy. As an object of worship, Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain recalls a portrait. As indicated in the postscripts, the painting made Bak Gyeong-bin "feel like hearing his father's cough and seeing his attitudes and behaviors with my eyes." The fable of Xu Xiaosu, who gazed at the portrait of his father day and night, is reflected in this gravesite painting evoking a deceased parent. It is still unclear why Bak Gyeong-bin commissioned Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain to be produced as a real scenery landscape in the folding screen format rather than a hanging scroll or woodblock print, the conventional formats for a family gravesite paintings. In the nineteenth century, commoners came to produce numerous folding screens for use during the four rites of coming of age, marriage, burial, and ancestral rituals. However, they did not always use the screens in accordance with the nature of these rites. In the Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain, the real scenery landscape appears to have been emphasized more than the image of the gravesite in order to allow the screen to be applied during different rituals or for use to decorate space. The burial mound, which should be the essence of Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain, might have been obscured in order to hide its violation of the prohibition on the construction of tombs on the four mountains around the capital. At the western foot of Inwangsan Mountain, which was illustrated in this painting, the construction of tombs was forbidden. In 1832, a tomb discovered illegally built on the forbidden area was immediately dug up and the related people were severely punished. This indicates that the prohibition was effective until the mid-nineteenth century. The postscripts on the Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain document in detail Bak Gyeong-bin's efforts to obtain the land as a burial site. The help and connivance of villagers were necessary to use the burial site, probably because constructing tombs within the prohibited area was a burden on the family and villagers. Seokpajeong Pavilion by Yi Han-cheol (1808~1880), currently housed at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art, is another real scenery landscape in the format of a folding screen that is contemporaneous and comparable with Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain. In 1861 when Seokpajeong Pavilion was created, both Yi Han-cheol and Jo Jung-muk participated in the production of a portrait of King Cheoljong. Thus, it is highly probable that Jo Jung-muk may have observed the painting process of Yi's Seokpajeong Pavilion. A few years later, when Jo Jungmuk was commissioned to produce Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain, his experience with the impressive real scenery landscape of the Seokpajeong Pavilion screen could have been reflected in his work. The difference in the painting style between these two paintings is presumed to be a result of the tastes and purposes of the commissioners. Since Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain contains the multilayered structure of a real scenery landscape and family gravesite, it seems to have been perceived in myriad different ways depending on the viewer's level of knowledge, closeness to the commissioner, or viewing time. In the postscripts to the painting, the name and nickname of the tomb occupant as well as the place of his surname are not recorded. He is simply referred to as "Mister Bak." Biographical information about the commissioner Bak Gyeong-bin is also unavailable. However, given that his family did not enter government service, he is thought to have been a person of low standing who could not become a member of the ruling elite despite financial wherewithal. Moreover, it is hard to perceive Hong Seon-ju, who wrote the postscripts, as a member of the nobility. He might have been a low-level administrative official who belonged to the Gyeongajeon, as documented in the Seungjeongwon ilgi (Daily Records of Royal Secretariat of the Joseon Dynasty). Bak Gyeong-bin is presumed to have moved the tomb of his father to a propitious site and commissioned Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain to stress his filial piety, a conservative value, out of his desire to enter the upper class. However, Ancestral Burial Ground on the Inwangsan Mountain failed to live up to its original purpose and ended up as a contradictory image due to its multiple applications and the concern over the exposure of the violation of the prohibition on the construction of tombs on the prohibited area. Forty-seven years after its production, this screen became a part of the collection at the Royal Yi Household Museum with each panel being separated. This suggests that Bak Gyeong-bin's dream of bringing fortune and raising his family's social status by selecting a propitious gravesite did not come true.