• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.5D
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• pp.453-459
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• 2010

In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

• Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2023

Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become the next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection with AI. Thus, we developed the risk assessment matrix for a high-risk area of human infection with AI in South Korea based on the notion that risk is the multiplication of hazards with vulnerability. This matrix consisted of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry farms and the number of poultry-associated production facilities assumed as hazards of avian influenza and vulnerability, respectively. The average number of HPAI in poultry farms at the 229-municipal level as the hazard axis of the matrix was predicted using a negative binomial regression with nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 to 2018. The two components of the matrix were classified into five groups using the K-means clustering algorithm and multiplied, consequently producing the area-specific risk level of human infection. As a result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, and Namwon-si were categorized as high-risk areas for human infection with AI. These findings would contribute to designing the policies for human infection to minimize socio-economic damages.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.87-94
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• 1985

The seasonal variations of the rate and intensity of metacercarial infection of C. sinensis in P. parva were observed. The fish were collected at Sun-Am River which located in Kim-Hae City, Kyong-Sang Nam Do (=Province), Korea, from March 1983, to February 1984 every month. A total of 788 fish was examined. The number of metacercariae in each fish was individually counted after the individual digestion by artificial gastric juice. The results were as follows: 1. During one year, 513 (65.1%) out of 788 fish were infected with metacercariae. In May, June, July and September, the infection rates ranged from 82.0% to 98.6% whereas the rates was relatively low in March, April, November and February ranging from 11.4% to 64.7%. 2. The intensity of infection was similar with those of infection rates. The mean intensity per infected fish was 103.0 and standard deviation was 118.9 throughout one year. The highest mean intensity was in June (294.8) and the lowest in November (11.1). 3. The observed frequency of fish with certain intensities of metacercariae were fitted to theoretical equations derived from negative binomial distribution in March, April, November and February (p>0.05). Meanwhile, the equation of lognormal distribution were fitted with the observed frequencies in May, June, July and September (p>0.05, p>O. 75). The variance/mean ratio varied by month. The value was the highest in July (814.3) and the lowest in November (158.8). Unlike our hypothesis, the metacercarial density of Clonorchis sinensis in its the most favorable fish host, Pseudorasbora parva showed considerable seasonal variations in the hyperendemic area. The possible factors were discussed.