• Title/Summary/Keyword: 음이항회귀모델

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The Data-based Prediction of Police Calls Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 데이터 기반 경찰신고건수 예측)

  • Choi, Jaehun
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of the study is to predict the number of police calls using neural network which is one of the machine learning and negative binomial regression, by using the data of 112 police calls received from Chungnam Provincial Police Agency from June 2016 to May 2017. The variables which may affect the police calls have been selected for developing the prediction model : time, holiday, the day before holiday, season, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, jurisdictional area, population, the number of foreigners, single house rate and other house rate. Some variables show positive correlation, and others negative one. The comparison of the methods can be summarized as follows. Neural network has correlation coefficient of 0.7702 between predicted and actual values with RMSE 2.557. Negative binomial regression on the other hand shows correlation coefficient of 0.7158 with RMSE 2.831. Neural network has low interpretability, but an excellent predictability compared with the negative binomial regression. Based on the prediction model, the police agency can do the optimal manpower allocation for given values in the selected variables.

Development of Evaluation Model for Black Spot Improvement Priorities by using Emperical Bayes Method (EB기법을 이용한 사고잦은 곳 개선사업 우선순위 판정기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Seong-Bong;Hwang, Bo-Hui;Seong, Nak-Mun;Lee, Seon-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2009
  • The safety management of a road network comprises four basic inter-related components:identification of sites(black spot) requiring safety investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for potential treatment candidates, and prioritization of treatments given limited budgets(Persaud, 2001). Identification process of selecting black spot is very important for efficient investigation of sites. In this study, the accident prediction model for EB method was developed by using accident data and geometric conditions of black spots selected from four-leg signalized intersections in In-cheon City for three years (2004-2006). In addition, by comparing the rank nomination technique using EB method to that by using accident counts, we managed to show the problems which the existing method have and the necessity for developing rational prediction model. As a result, in terms of total number of accidents, both the counts predicted by existing non-linear regression model and that by EB method have high good of fitness, but EB method, considering both the accident counts by sites and total number of accident, has better good of fitness than non-linear poison model. According to the result of the comparison of ranks nominated for treatment between two methods, the rank for treatment of almost sites does not change but SeoHae intersection and a few other intersections have significant changes in their rank. This shows that, with the technique proposed in the study, the RTM problem caused by using real accident counts can be overcome.

Core Demand Market by Visitor's Characteristics of Mountain Types of a National Park -focused on Demographic and Social Economical Factors- (국립공원 방문객 특성을 이용한 핵심수요시장연구 -인구통계학적 변인과 사회경제학적 변인을 중심으로-)

  • Gwak, Gang-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.361-368
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    • 2013
  • This research aims to offer the information required for demand increase on marketing strategy level by investigating Mudeungsan visitors' demographic characteristics and social economical variables. To accomplish this study, the proper analyzing model needs to be applied because a grave error of parameters will be led if regression model appropriate for analyzing the data of a continuous probability variable is applied, in case that dependent variable is a discrete random variable which have a discrete probability distribution. Therefore data analysis was performed with Poisson model. However, as the data was showing an overdispersion, parameter was estimated with the Binomial Poisson model able to cover the problem. As a result, some explanatory variables turned out to be significant such as visitor's age, occupation, preferred season to visit, type of company, five days working, and preferring type of tourism. Author could offer to the national park the information about characteristics of core market revealed and marketing strategy for it, based on those influential variables.

A study of factors affecting citation of patents: Focusing on US automotive patents (특허의 피인용에 영향을 끼치는 요인에 대한 연구: 미국 자동차 특허를 중심으로)

  • Ryu, Wonrim;Kim, Youngjun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.283-295
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    • 2022
  • The number of citations in a patent is one of the indicators of the qualitative value of a patent. In this study, negative binomial regression model analysis was performed focusing on 47,354 US patents of 14 global top automotive makers in order to examine the major factors affecting the number of patent citations. As a result of the review, it was found that, elapsed years since filing, the number of patent claims, the number of claim letters, the number of inventors, the number of patent family countries, and the number of patent families, as well as IPC diversity, had a positive and significant effect on the number of citations. The results of this study are expected to provide a basic basis for considering the IPC diversity index together in analyzing and evaluating future patents and establishing strategies for creating excellent patents.

Factors Affecting the Usefulness of Online Reviews: The Moderating Role of Price (온라인 리뷰 유용성에 영향을 미치는 요인: 가격의 조절 효과)

  • Yun, Jiyun;Ro, Yuna;Kwon, Boram;Jahng, Jungjoo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.153-173
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes yelp's online restaurant reviews written in 2019 and explores the factors influencing the decision of the usefulness for online reviews in the restaurant consumption decision process. Specifically, factors expected to affect review usefulness are classified according to the Elaboration Likelihood model. Also, it is assumed that the price range of the restaurant would have a moderating role. For the analysis, datasets provided by yelp.com in February 2020 are used. Among the datasets, online reviews of businesses located in Nevada in the US and belonging to the Food and Restaurant categories are targeted. As a result of the negative binomial regression analysis, it is confirmed that the central cues including review depth and readability and the peripheral cues including review consistency, reviewer popularity, and reviewer exposure positively affect the review usefulness. It is also confirmed that the influences of antecedents that affect the review restaurant prices moderate the effect of the central and peripheral cues on the review usefulness. It also provides implications for the need for price-differentiated review management strategies by review platforms and restaurant businesses.