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A Study on Predicting Presidential Election Results by Analyzing Twitter Message Contents: A Focus on the 18th Presidential Election in Korea (트위터 메시지 분석을 통한 선거 결과 예측 고찰: 18대 대선을 중심으로)

  • Lee, SeoYoung;Kwon, SangJib
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.174-186
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    • 2019
  • Twitter is very popluar with users who desire social interaction as it is a highly effective method of communicating compared to traditional communication platforms; and thus has garnered considerable interest from the academic community. This research reveals how election results can be predicted by the factors of total volume of messages, positive messages and negative messages tweeted about a candidate. Social matrix analysis revealed that the quantity of twitter messages was a strong predictor of election results in the 18th presidential election in Korea. In addition, more positive messages than negative messages about a candidate from twitter users recorded better results in the election. This research found that the total quantity of messages, positive messages, and negative messages as key factors for predicting election result. Future studies should investigate other SNS platforms to discover what is the most effective communication strategy on each platform.

Legislative Performance and Renomination: The Case of Members in the 19th Korean National Assembly (입법성과가 재공천에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구: 제19대 국회의원을 대상으로)

  • Kim, Gidong;Cha, Bokyoung;Lee, Jaemook
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.101-134
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    • 2018
  • This study examines the effects of members' legislative performance on their renominations in the $19^{th}$ Korean National Assembly. We measure how many bills each member has proposed and passed in the Assembly. In addition, we also include rate of passing bills as an indicator of legislative performance. Particularly, we analyze 320 members in total, and 270 members who got in on the competition for nomination separately. The empirical findings of our study show that, firstly, among the total members in the Assembly, as they propose bills more and pass bills fewer, they are more likely to be renominated in the very next election. However, this is a result of different types of members rather than legislative performance. Secondly, among the members who actually competed for renomination, the legislative performance of members can not affect their renomination. Therefore, we argue that it is necessary to stipulate nominations criteria and transform top-down nomination method to bottom-up one in order to raise responsiveness and enhance representative democracy.

A New Universally Verifiable and Receipt-free Electronic Voting Scheme Using Only One-way Untappable Channels (일방향 도청 불가능한 채널만을 이용하여 전체검증과 매표방지를 제공하는 새로운 전자선거 기법)

  • 조진현;김상진;오희국
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2003
  • Electronic voting schemes must provide universal verifiability and receipt-freeness, as well as basic properties such as privacy, eligibility, to make the election fair and transparent. But it is difficult to provide both universal verifiability and receipt-freeness because they are mutually contradictory in their objective. To date, most electronic voting schemes provide only one of these properties and those few that provide both properties are not practical due to heavy computational load. In this paper, we present an efficient electronic voting scheme that provides both properties. The proposed scheme uses a trusted third party called HR(Honest Randomizer) and requires only one-way untappable channels from HRs to voters. Among the schemes that assume only one-way untappable channel this scheme requires the least amount of computation. Among the schemes that provide both properties, this scheme uses the weakest physical assumption. We also discuss the security of the system and compare our scheme with other related schemes.

Anonymous Blockchain Voting Model using the Master Node Network (마스터 노드 네트워크를 사용한 블록체인 익명 투표 모델)

  • Cho, Jae-Han;Lee, Lee-Sub;Choi, Chang-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.394-402
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    • 2021
  • Electronic voting systems have been widely used in many countries around the world since the mid-1990s. In recent years, studies have applied blockchain to existing electronic voting systems in order to provide reliability, fairness, and transparency for voters. This approach is highly useful as a technology that promotes decentralized citizen participation. However, the existing electronic voting systems using blockchain have not sufficiently considered anonymity. Lack of anonymity acts as an important constraint in cases of small- and medium-sized voting, which is often required in decentralized citizen participation. In this study, we propose a model that provides anonymity to a voting system using blockchain by applying the concept of the master node in Dash cryptocurrency. First, we define the differences in the requirements of the transfer and voting systems in blockchain. We propose a parallel and autonomous model and algorithm to provide anonymity in the blockchain-that is, a decentralized development environment. In addition, a discussion of security and the environment for the proposed model is described.

Dynamics in Election News Making: An Exploratory Study (선거보도의 역동성에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lee, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.155-188
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    • 2021
  • This study examines dynamics in election news making. It is important to understand when and how news media produce election news in order to grasp news making and voting behavior. The news media sometimes make election news by focusing on issues and policies. Often they frame elections as a game and focus on election strategies while covering elections. This article argues that as time goes by during the election period, the number of policy news tends to decrease while the frequency of strategic news is likely to increase. Also, TV's and newspapers show distinctive patterns of election news making. In order to examine the arguments, this study categorizes election news stories into policy and strategic news stories produced during the 2020 Korean congressional elections and constructs daily time-series data of them. The results of structural break and regression analyses partially support the arguments.

Terminological Misuses and Institutional Coherence in Electoral Systems (선거제도의 개념 오용과 정합성: 비례대표성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chae-Han
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2019
  • In the process of changing the Korean electoral system, various terms such as representation, majority, minority, plurality, and proportionality are not used correctly, making normative judgment on its desirable electoral system difficult. This paper clarifies the concepts and terminology related to the electoral system in order to enable proper normative discussion. First, the misuse of the names of the electoral system is reviewed. This includes the majority representative system versus the minority representative system, the single-member constituency versus the multi-member constituency, the absolute majority system versus the relative majority system, and the majority representative system versus the proportional representative system. Next, the principles of representation, proportionality, democracy, direct ballot, and equal ballot are discussed to evaluate the decisions made by the Constitutional Court of Korea. In the current electoral system of the National Assembly, the equivalence between its constituency member and its proportional representation member is very low in terms of proportionality between votes received and seats allotted. Finally, the coherence between proportional representation and other political institutions is examined. Strengthening the proportionality of parliamentary elections alone does not necessarily increase the proportionality of the entire power structure.

The Problems and Improvement Measures of Protection for Politician (정치인 경호제도의 문제점 및 개선방안)

  • Jo, Sung-Gu;Kim, Tae-Min
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.22
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    • pp.169-196
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    • 2010
  • Although more priority is given to politicians from the aspect that they represent people and decide the future of country, the current situation is that politicians are not free from terrorism because of insufficient guard-concerned law, negative social recognition and increased crime and terrorism. The measure for politician terrorism shall be handled from the aspect of national security rather than public peace. For the purpose, basic legal foundation shall be prepared and specialized guard technique considering specialty of politician shall be established. Basic solution shall be established by reinforcing law against politician terrorism and establishing new law from the national viewpoint. The guard for politician has two faces that both of safety of guard target and voting intention of voter shall be met at the same time. Although special guard technique is required for guarding politician, current situation is that it is not researched professionally. In relation to the measure to develop the system of protection for politician, First, the study suggested legal foundation for politician guard. Although the 17th National Assembly proposed revised legal plan to protect politician from terrorism, it is suspended, expired and abolished now. The legal plan presented by members of the National Assembly was simply restricted to the scope of public guard. The study divided establishment of legal foundation into two things. The first one is the dispatch type of effective public guard and the second one is the transfer to private guard. Second, the study suggested environmental development method of politician guard. in the environment of politician guard, the study suggested improvement and development method by analyzing social recognition, politician's mind and voter's mind psychologically. After the beginning of human society, if human race is continued, political activity won't disappear. It is obvious that the safety of political leader is very important issue for human race because he plays the role to decide the future of human. In the future, more specialized, effective law shall be prepared and deeper study of scholar shall be performed.

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A Research on Political Engagement Index(PEI) Model about Election Strategy's Immersion in Candidate in Perspective of Engagement -Focusing on university students standard of selecting candidate in election for 18th president (인게이지먼트 관점에서 선거전략의 후보자 몰입에 관한 정치 인게이지먼트 모델(PEI)연구 - 제 18대 대통령 선거에서 대학생들이 후보자를 선택한 기준을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Man-Ki;Kim, Gyu-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2013
  • Even though the importance of reading voters' share of mind increases in political campaign, there is no research which analyzes engagement in perspective of political campaign. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to calculate political engagement index which is qualitative indicator about political campaign's immersion in candidate in perspective of engagement and provide scientific data for political advertisement and publicity strategy. For this purpose, A and B candidates who ran for 18th president in December 19th, 2012 are selected for subjects of the research. The young people whose voter participations are low in this presidential election are selected as subjects for responding questionnaire and are surveyed. This research is qualitative evaluation which tires to supplement a limit of qualitative analysis of content by surpassing quantitative evaluation including advertisement, promotion, public opinion on politics, ratings, etc. Evaluation attribute is designed to distribute 8 PEI into 0~100 score. If PEI is more than 50, then the score indicates immersion above average. If PEI is lower than 50, then the score indicates immersion below average. The model of the research will contribute to development of methodological research of political campaign strategy. Also, in the future, this model can be used as micro-targeting in each political campaign's election strategy.

Under the Pressure of the Topic Selection and Representation Rules of the Mass Media over the Slow Political Process Time - For Example the Televised Debate to Elections to the Federal Assembly in Germany (미디어 생산시간이 미디어 정치에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 독일총선의 TV토론을 중심으로)

  • Shim, Young-Sub
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.45
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    • pp.187-219
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    • 2009
  • Under the pressure of the selection of topics and the presentation rules of mass media, politics in media society increasingly resort to professionalized forms of theatrical staging as a means of self-portrayal. Although these staging methods are not contradictory to what is actually going on in politics, they strongly advantage the tendency to focus exclusively on the staging of an event. Through their competition for public attention, politicians have been developing sophistication regarding placement and staging of events as well as regarding factual information. In the process of this transformation, politics that are issue-related and based on binding decisions are being gradually transformed into symbolic politics. Moreover, through their appearance on TV, politicians first of all need to possess presentational skills which are not necessarily related to their political achievements. Still, presentational skills decide over the success in politics of those politicians. The reason is that a politician who possesses presentational skills is still being perceived as being successful even if his political achievements notedly lag behind. On the other hand, political achievements are being underrated if a politician lacks the talent to present himself in front of the media. “The staging of politics, “politainment”, on the stage of mass media is evolving into a key structure which is responsible for a new coinage of politics in all different kinds of dimensions: the selection of staff, the role of action programs and their impact for the legitimation of political acting, even in relation to therole of pivotal political institutions such as parties and parliaments in the political process. The TV debates during the Bundestag elections of the year 2002 and 2005 are being analyzed and judged as “staging of politics”(politainment). Self-dramatization in media society concerning media discourses about politics and political self-portrayal has become a basic principle of political communication. Self-dramatization is a vital challenge for adequate political communication and content-based orientation in our present media democracies.

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Propensity Analysis of Terrorism and Political Leaders Countermeasures (정치지도자 요인테러 성향 분석과 대응방안)

  • Kang, Kyoung Soo;Song, Sang Wook
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2012
  • This study is analysis of the existing domestic terrorism factors and suggest countermeasures for political leadership that can occur to the precautionary terror occasion of the presidential election approached 100 days in the future. Political terror caused mainly achieved peak of Ideology or social conflict by Politically alienated class. Common cause is most likely to occur when the party or the government want to attack a target or can not stand disadvantaged and lose that I suppert the party or the government. 21st century political terror is occurred with Misfits of complaints expressed or social conflict more frequency than attack used random people, new weqpon and bomb. It is interpreted that issued as a drastic measure from individual complaint because of increased polarization of wealth by separate into group and fallen law and order but also we are not familiar with the political compromises. Personal safety escort mission is essential condition of political activity that Absolute personal protection and to come up with a large number of voters for best result. Thus security guard ought to professional security activity depend on gathered situation, location and regional feature for perfect protection service.