• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2018.06a
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• pp.67-67
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• 2018

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2010.10a
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• pp.112-117
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• 2010

본 논문은, 국적일반화물선 공식안전성평가(Formal Safety Assessment, 이하 FSA) 연구의 1, 2 단계에 해당하는 위험요소 식별(Hazard identification) 및 식별된 사고 시나리오에 대한 위험도 분석(Risk analysis) 결과를 소개한 "국적일반화물선 초기안전성평가 연구(1)"에 이어서 FSA 연구의 3, 4 그리고 5단계의 내용으로, 국적일반화물선의 위험도 수준을 저감할 수 있는 위험도제어방안들(Risk Control Options)을 식별하는 단계(Step 3)와 식별된 위험도제어방안들 중 전문가 의견수렴을 통하여 선별된 위험도제어방안들을 대상으로 한 비용-효과 평가 단계(Step 4: Cost-Benefit Assessment) 그리고 비용-효과 평가의 결과를 정리하여 국적일반화물선의 안전성 제고를 위한 구체적인 방안을 제안하는 단계(Step 5: Recommendation for Decision Making)의 결과를 소개하였다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.23-30
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• 2011

This study was carried out in order to verity the usefulness of FSA(Formal Safety Assessment) methods as a tool to conduct a safety assessment of general cargo ships flying the Korean flag, and to provide useful information on 'the Safety of General Cargo Ships' for IMO committee's discussion on the matter at a future session. In the previous paper, "A Study on High-level FSA for Korean-flagged General Cargo Ships(1)", the concepts of the FSA methodology and its five steps were described and the results of Hazard Identification(Step 1) and Risk Analysis(Step 2) from the FSA study for the Korean-flagged general cargo ships were discussed. Subsequent to the Steps 1 & 2, the identification of Risk Control Options(RCOs-Step 3) for eliminating or reducing either the frequency or the severity of the risks identified and their Cost-Benefit Assessment(CBA-Step 4) were undertaken. In this paper, the results of the Steps 3 & 4 are discussed, and some recommendations are made.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.213-220
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• 2010

Following the application of Formal Safety Assessment(FSA) to bulk carriers, crude oil tankers and large passenger ships, an urgent need to consider the safety of general cargo ships has recently been raised through the International Maritime Organization(IMO)(IMO, 2006a), and related FSA studies are being carried out by International Association of Classification Societies(IACS) as a preparatory work for the discussion on the issue of general cargo ship safety in the IMO committee. FSA is a structured and systematic methodology which is based on the techniques of risk analysis and cost benefit assessment to assist in the decision-making process, and aims at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property. FSA can be used as a tool to facilitate the development of regulatory changes equitable to the various parties, with a view to aiding the achievement of consensus, and to help in the evaluation of new regulations and in making a comparison between existing and possibly improved regulations(IMO, 2007). This study aims at verifying the usefulness of FSA methods as a tool to conduct a safety assessment of general cargo ships flying the Korean flag, and providing useful information on 'the safety of general cargo ships' for IMO committee's discussion on the matter at a future session. FSA comprises five steps, however, steps 1(Hazard identification) and 2 (Risk analysis) from the FSA study for the Korean-flagged general cargo ships are discussed in this paper.

• 해운
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• s.88
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• pp.12-20
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• 2012

2011년 건화물선 운임지수 평균값은 1,549p를 기록, 2010년 2,758p 대비 44% 가량 낮은 수준을 기록한 동시에 1,137p를 기록했던 2002년 이후 9년여만에 가장 낮은 수준을 기록하였다. 작년 9월 국제통화기금(IMF)에서 발표한 World Economic Outlook 기준 2012년 세계 경제 성장률은 4.0% 성장으로, 중국과 인도, 브라질 등 개도국들의 강한 성장이 미국과 유럽의 저성장을 상쇄할 것이라고 발표하였다. 그러나 IMF는 세계 경제가 유럽위기로 위험한 상황에 처해 있으며 중국 등의 이머징 국가도 위기의 영향을 받고 있다고 경고하며 올해 세계 경제 성장률이 하향 조정될 가능성이 있는 것으로 전망되고 있다. 그러나, 2012년 케이프선형을 둘러싼 수급여건은 다소 개선될 것으로 전망됐다. 다음은 캠코 선박운용 주식회사에서 발표한 "2012년 건화물선 시황전망"의 주요 내용을 요약정리한 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.496-498
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• 2012

선박이 운항중 타선과의 충돌상황을 효과적으로 신속하게 파악하는 데 도움을 줌으로써 선박 충돌사고를 방지하기 위한 선박충돌위험도 식별시스템을 개발하였다. 지난 연구에서는, 고안된 시스템의 성능을 검증하기 위해 부산항에서 일어난 제품운반선과 화물선간의 충돌사고의 실제 AIS 데이터를 이용한 재생시뮬레이션을 수행한 바 있다. 본 논문에서는 선박충돌위험도 식별 시스템의 테스트베드를 구축하였고, 실제 해상에서 AIS 신호를 이용하여 성능을 검증해 보고자 하였다. 이를 위해, 군산항과 인천항의 연안여객선에 테스트베드를 장착하고, 실제 운항중 AIS 정보를 이용하여, 실시간으로 선박충돌위험도 식별시스템의 온보드 시험을 수행하였다. 본 논문에서는 선박충돌위험도 식별 시스템의 테스트베드의 특징과, 실제 해상에서 수행된 온보드 시험 결과에 대해 소개하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.297-311
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• 2011

This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2010.10a
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• pp.180-181
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• 2010

An estimation algorithm of collision risk among multiple ships has been developed in order to reduce human error and prevent collision accidents. The algorithm is designed to calculate the collision risk among ships based on Fuzzy theory by using AIS data as traffic information. In this paper, to validate the algorithm, the AIS data of actual collision accident, which occurred between a product carrier and a cargo carrier in Busan harbor in 2009 are collected. The replay simulation is carried out on the actual AIS data and the collision risk is calculated in real time. In this paper, the features of the estimation algorithm of collision risk and the results of replay simulation based on AIS data of actual collision accident are discussed.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.10
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• pp.727-733
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• 2010

An estimation algorithm of collision risk among multiple ships has been developed in order to reduce human error and prevent collision accidents. The algorithm is designed to calculate the collision risk among ships based on Fuzzy theory by using AIS data as traffic information. In this paper, to validate the algorithm, the AIS data of actual collision accident, which occurred between a product carrier and a cargo carrier in Busan harbor in 2009 are collected. The replay simulation is carried out on the actual AIS data and the collision risk is calculated in real time. In this paper, the features of the estimation algorithm of collision risk and the results of replay simulation based on AIS data of actual collision accident are discussed.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.151-163
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• 2024

This study sought to confirm the impact of analytical methods and behavioral economic theory factors on decision-making when making chartering decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. This study on chartering decision-making model was began to verify why shipping companies do not make rational decision-making and behavior based on analytical methods such as freight prediction and process of alternative selection in the same market situation. To understand the chartering decision-making model, it is necessary to study the impact of behavioral economic theory such as heuristics, loss aversion, and herding behavior on chartering decision-making. Through AHP analysis, the importance of the method factors relied upon in chartering decision-making. The dependence of the top factors in chartering decision-making was in the following order: market factors, heuristics, internal factors, herding behavior, and loss aversion. Market factors, heuristics, and internal factors. As for detailed factors, spot freight index and empirical intuition were confirmed as the most important factors relied on when making decisions. It was confirmed that empirical intuition is more important than internal analysis, which is an analytical method. This study can be said to be meaningful in that it academically researched and proved the bounded rationality of humans, which cannot be fully rational, and sometimes relies on experience or psychological tendencies, by applying it to the chartering decision-making model in the dry bulk shipping market. It also suggests that in the dry bulk shipping market, which is uncertain and has a high risk of loss due to decision-making, the experience and insight of decision makers have a very important impact on the performance and business profits of the operation part of shipping companies. Even though chartering are a decision-making field that requires judgment and intuition based on heuristics, decision-makers need to be aware of this decision-making model in order to reduce repeated mistakes of deciding contrary to market situation. It also suggests that there is a need to internally research analytical methods and procedures that can complement heuristics such as empirical intuition.