• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.57-63
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• 2019

This study suggests the level of guaranteed reserves that should be accumulated in order to provide guaranteed interest contracts to pension members. To calculate the guaranteed reserve, this study employs the method using variable insurance contracts with guaranteed interest options. The average return of three major pensions (national pension, private teacher's pension, civil servants pension) funds, from 2010 to 2018, is set as the target rate of return and then we establish 0%, 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% each as our minimum guaranteed returns for their respective guaranteed reserves. Our results firstly show that gaps between each guaranteed reserves are increasing as times goes on. Second, the probability of shortfall reserve is on the decrease as the pension fund is mature. Conclusively, a long-term conservative balance between risk and return is one of the best investing strategies in pension funds providing the guaranteed interest.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.312-318
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• 2017

This study calculated the cash flow using the financial information by fiscal year for 25 general hospitals and 23 hospitals, and analyzed the relationship between cash flow and net working capital. The analysis results showed that 73.3% of general hospitals and 83.3% of hospitals did not secure funds required for operating activities by fiscal year. The cash flow types that affect net working capital were expenses not involving cash outflows and changes in borrowings in general hospitals, and expenses not involving cash outflows and income not involving cash inflows and changes in borrowings in hospitals. However, in case of shortage of funds required for operating activities, at general hospital, due to expenses not involving cash outflows being high and income not involving cash inflows being low and resulting in increased borrowing, at hospital, due to expenses not involving cash outflows being high and resulting in increased borrowing. Therefore, for the stability of cash flow in management activities, the adequacy and relevance of the expenses not involving cash outflows need to be reviewed, and it will be necessary to review the appropriate internal policy measures to systematically and rationally manage cash flow in consideration of cash flows.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.281-291
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• 2020

This study used Gauss-Poisson jump diffusion process on standard assets to estimate the statutory reserves of Variable Annuity (VA) guarantees specified in Korean bylaw of insurance supervision and calculated guarantee fees and risks based on the model to see the effect of considering the jumps. Financial assets, except KOSPI 200, have fat-tailed return distributions, which is an indirect evidence of discontinuous jumps. In the case of a domestic stock index and foreign stock indexes(Korean Won), guarantee fees and risks decrease when jumps are considered in models of underlying assets. This is explained by decreases in standard deviations after the jump diffusion is considered. On the other hand, in the case of domestic bond indexes and a foreign bond index(Korean Won), guarantee fees and risks tend to increase when jumps are considered. Results from a foreign stock index(US Dollar) and a foreign bond index(US Dollar) were opposite to those from the same kinds of Korean Won indexes. We conclude that VA guarantee fees and risks may be under or over estimated when jumps are not considered in models of underlying assets.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2006

In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.147-181
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• 2007

Our article investigates the risk implication of ownership structure in life insurance companies. We set up a model to identify the priority structure of policyholder's and shareholder's cashflow claims, and to derive its implications. Current literature on this issue has focused on the agency paradigm or the risk-sharing efficiency. Fama and Jensen(1983a, 1983b) and Mayers and Smith(1981, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994) argue that the survival of both the corporate and the mutual form of organization is due in part to the relative efficiencies in controlling agency problems. With regard to insurance business, agency problems arise because of the three functions inherent in the organizations:manager, risk-bearer(owner), and policyholder. Stock insurers are characterized by the potentially complete separation of all three functions while mutual insurers merger the policyholder with the ownership function. Doherty and Dionne(1993) and Doherty(1991) concentrate their analysis on differences in the efficiency of risk sharing between participating and non-participating policies. They argue that when the undiversifiable risk has higher portion in business risk, combining policy and equity claims into a single package is a more efficient risk-sharing contract than a simple prepaid risk-transfer. Among various methods for assembling the policy/equity package, Doherty and Dionne(1993) and Doherty(1991) suggest that policy/equity package offered by the mutual is the most efficient risk-sharing arrangement. There has been a controversy on the property of participating policies sold by life insurance corporations in Korea. Some scholars argue that participating policyholders of Korean life insurance companies have shared the cashflow risk with shareholders. They emphasize that insurance firms have used dividend reserves to supplement for equity deficits. Thus, they argue that the economic entities of Korean life insurance companies are mutual companies though their legal entities are corporations. Our article explicitly sets up each stakeholder's cashflow claim in stock and mutual insurers, and thus identify risk differences in shareholder and policyholder. Using our model, we could derive direct implications on the controversy. Our model shows that life insurance companies would sell participating policies since policyholders would have the incentive to share the risk inherent in their primary claims with equityholders. And there exists a fundamental difference in shareholder's risk and equityholder's.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.193-193
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 산불발생인자들에 대한 정보를 각각의 요인별로 집적화하고 체계화시킴으로써 산불예방활동의 기초자료로 활용할 뿐만 아니라 산불발생 시, 산불의 거동을 예측하기 위한 자료로 활용하고자 하였다. 발생인자는 크게 연료 및 기상조건 관련 인자와 열적특성 관련 인자로 분류하고 연료 및 기상조건 관련 인자는 수종별, 부위별, 지역별, 고도별, 월별 산림연료들의 구성 요인들에 대해서 분석하였다. 수종별로는 생강나무, 초피나무, 조록싸리, 산초, 개암, 청미래, 고추나무, 철쭉, 조릿대, 털진달래 등 관목류 10개 수종과 김의털, 방아풀, 주름조개풀, 칡, 엉겅퀴 등 초본류 5개 수종 그리고 소나무, 잣나무, 리기다소나무, 해송, 구상나무, 주목 등 6개의 침엽수 및 굴참나무, 떡갈나무, 신갈나무, 갈참나무, 졸참나무, 상수리, 산개벚나무, 고채목, 개서어나무, 굴거리나무, 서어나무, 산벚나무, 때죽나무, 당단풍나무, 단풍나무 등 15개의 활엽수로 구성된 교목류를 대상으로 분석하였다. 부위별로는 생엽, 낙엽, 가지, 수피, 솔방울 등으로 구분하여 분석을 수행했으며, 지역별 구성은 강원(삼척/태백산), 경북(응봉산), 경기(용문산), 충북(월악산), 충남(계룡산), 전북(덕유산), 전남(월출산), 부산(금정산), 제주(한라산) 등 9개 지역을 대상으로 선정하였다. 고도별로는 강원도에 소재하고 있는 태백산을 중심으로 소나무와 신갈나무 생엽을 대상으로 900m, 1000m, 1100m, 1200m, 1300m, 1400m, 1500m 고도를 선정하여 분석을 수행하였다. 월별 분석데이터는 소나무 생엽의 경우, 2008년 6월부터 2010년 11월까지 매월 분석을 수행하였으며, 굴참나무 생엽의 경우에는 2008년부터 2010년까지 매년 6월부터 10월까지 생엽을 채취할 수 있는 기간 동안 분석을 수행하였다. 또한, 열적특성 관련 인자로는 착화특성(무염착화온도, 발염착화시간, 소염시간, 화염지속시간), 발열특성(총열방출량, 평균열방출률), 발연특성(총연기방출량, 최대연기밀도, 최대밀도시간) 등을 고찰하였다. 이와 같은 결과들은 산불발생인자 DB구축으로 부터 산불발생 위험도 및 동태예측의 기본 자료로 활용할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 지역별 연료별 산림연료의 열적특성 DB로 부터 산불발생시 산불 위험도에 대한 기술정립과 응용성을 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 사료된다. 이외에도 산림연료 종류별 열적특성을 결과를 토대로 문화재보존지역과 같이 문화적 가치가 높은 시설이나 주유소, 가스 충전소 등의 위험 시설에 대한 효과적인 보호를 위한 대처 방안을 사전에 준비할 수 있어 산불 피해에 대한 국민의 불안감을 줄일 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.427-435
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• 2017

Korea's overseas construction awards reached US $750 bn for more than 50 years since it first entered the market in 1966. In particular, the company won US $540 bn over 10 years from 2007, achieving 72% of the total contracts. However, in recent two years, awarded amounts have decreased by 40% each year. The most significant decline is due to the impact of international oil prices, which have plummeted since end of 2014, as oil-producing nations, which are Korea's major target countries, are struggling to cancel or postpone infrastructure orders. In order to lessen the impact of raw material price fluctuations, the recent trend is that even countries with relatively loose government financing conditions are rapidly changing their ordering methods to investment development forms such as PPP. The Korean government and companies have been already preparing for this for several years, but they are still not doing so well. The main reason is the lack of understanding about the investment development type project, especially financing methods and the aggravated fear of exposing it to various risks due to the characteristics of the development project, which takes a long time to collect the investment. In this paper, I propose a more systematic solution to financial process and risk management, which is recognized as a obstructive factor for Korean companies, in line with the recent government-led establishment of overseas infrastructure development support organizations. I would like to serve as a investment guide.