• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험요인 추정

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임자도 주변해역의 자치어 분포

  • 전송미;조영철;최옥인;이성환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Fisheries Technology Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.300-301
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    • 2000
  • 우리나라 서해안은 조간대가 넓게 발달하여 있고 조차가 매우 크므로 물의 혼합이 잘 이루어져 먹이가 풍부하며, 탁도가 높아 포식의 위험이 적어 어류의 산란장이나 생육장으로 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 어류는 난에서 부화하여 자치어기를 거쳐 성장하면서 성어가 되고 어업에 가입이 된다. 어류의 초기 발생 시기에는 주변해역의 환경요인에 영향을 가장 많이 받는 시기로 자치어 생존율은 어류 자원의 크기를 결정짓는다(May,1974). 따라서 어류 자원량 추정과 미래 자원량을 예측하기 위해서는 자치어의 출현량과 분포에 관한 연구가 중요한 정보가 된다. (중략)

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Rank Tracking Probabilities using Linear Mixed Effect Models (선형 혼합 효과 모형을 이용한 순위 추적 확률)

  • Kwak, Minjung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2015
  • An important scientific objective of longitudinal studies involves tracking the probability of a subject having certain health condition over the course of the study. Proper definitions and estimates of disease risk tracking have important implications in the design and analysis of long-term biomedical studies and in developing guidelines for disease prevention and intervention. We study in this paper a class of rank-tracking probabilities to describe a subject's conditional probabilities of having certain health outcomes at two different time points. Linear mixed effects models are considered to estimate the tracking probabilities and their ratios of interest. We apply our methods to an epidemiological study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors.

A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept (확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Taehui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

The change in the fertility rates and the determinants of birth interval of Korean women (한국여성의 출산율 변화와 출산간격 영향요인)

  • Ryoo, Kee-Cheol;Piao, Ying-Hua
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • This paper uses a survey data to analyze the age-specific fertility rates, age-specific cumulative fertility rates, and ages of marriage of the five birth cohorts of Korean women born in the 1940s and thereafter. It was found that later cohorts reach their highest age-specific fertility rate at higher ages than earlier cohorts. The age-specific cumulative fertility rates of the 1950s and 1960 cohorts were found to be much lower than those of the immediately preceding cohorts, while those of the 1970s and 1980s cohorts were not different from those of the 1960s cohorts. Women belonging to later cohorts were found to get married at relatively higher ages. The estimation results of the hazard model show that women belonging to later cohorts and those with more schooling have a tendency to get married at higher ages. The effect of the birth cohorts is thought to be due to the economic, social, and cultural changes in Korea during the late 50 years or so. The time interval between a woman‘s marriage and first birth was found not to be affected by either the year of marriage or that of her birth. Also, those who remained employed for some time around their marriage and those with low schooling were found to have a lower first child birth hazard, which implies that married women’s employment status and family income play an important role in their decisions on childbirth.

Analysis of Traffic Crash Severity on Freeway Using Hierarchical Binomial Logistic Model (계층 이항 로지스틱모형에 의한 고속도로 교통사고 심각도 분석)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2011
  • In the study of traffic safety, the analysis on factors affecting crash severity and the understanding about their relationship is important to be planning and execute to improve safety of road and traffic facilities. The purpose of this study is to develop a hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting fatal injuries and vehicle damages of traffic crashes on freeway. Two models on death and total vehicle damage are developed. The hierarchical structure of response variable is composed of two level, crash-occupant and crash-vehicle. As a result, we have gotten the crash-level random effect from these hierarchical structure as well as the fixed effect of covariates, namely odds ratio. The crash on the main line and in-out section have greater damage than other facilities. Injuries and vehicle damages are severe in case of traffic violations, centerline invasion and speeding. Also, collision crash and fire occurrence is more severe damaged than other crash types. The surrounding environment of surface conditions by climate and visibility conditions by day and night is a significant factor on crash occurrence. On the orher hand, the geometric condition of road isn't.

패널자료(資料)를 이용한 자본구조(資本構造) 결정요인(決定要因)의 추정(推定)

  • Kim, Hae-Jin;Lee, Hae-Yeong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 1995
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 자본구조이론과 전통적 연구에서 제시된 변수를 통합하고 횡단면(橫斷面) 요인(要因)과 시계열(時系列) 요인(要因)을 결합하여 우리나라의 자본구조결정 요인을 식별할 수 있는 이론적(理論的) 모형(模型)을 제시하여, 또한 제시된 모형을 한국증권시장(韓國證券市場)의 자료(資料)를 이용하여 실증적(實證的)으로 분석(分析)하였다. 그리고 실증적 분석에는 횡단면(橫斷面) 자료(資料)와 시계열(時系列) 자료(資料)를 결합하는 패널자료추정법(資料推定法)을 사용하였다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 제시된 자본구조이론(資本構造理論)과 관련된 결정 요인으로는 기업(企業)의 성장기(成長機)을, 내부주주(內部株主)의 지분율(持分率) 그리고 내부주주수(內部株主數)의 비율 등을, 전통적 횡단면 요인으로는 경영위험(經營危險), 자산구성(資産構成), 수익성(收益性), 기업규모(企業規模) 등을, 그리고 전통적 시계열 요인으로는 법인세율(法人稅率)과 물가수준(物價水準) 등을 제시하였다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 다루는 실증분석기간은 1981년 1월부터 1990년 12월까지의 10년간이었으며, 추출된 표본기업(標本企業)의 수(數)는 104개사이다. 실증적 분석결과, 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 제시된 설명변수들이 자본구조(資本構造)의 변동(變動)을 49.91%정도 설명하고 있으며 설명변수 중 기업(企業)의 성장기회(成長機會), 내부주주(內部株主)의 지분을, 경영위험(經營危險), 수익성(收益性), 기업규모(企業規模), 물가수준(物價水準) 등은 자본구조의 결정 요인으로 통계적인 의미를 갖는 변수로 밝혀졌으며 회귀계수(回歸係數)의 부호도 기대하였던 바와 일치하고 있다. 질산으로 처리된 것이 컸고 0.75 M과 1.0 M의 질산을 사용했을 때는 작음이 확인되었다. 이상의 실험결과들로부터 친수성인 $NH_4Y$형 제올라이트를 소수성의 것으로 변환시키기 위한 수증기의 온도는 $500^{\circ}C$$600^{\circ}C$가, 그리고 질산의 농도는 0.5 M이 적합한 것으로 결론지을 수 있고, 이와 같은 결론은 BET비표면적과 TPV값과 같은 경향을 보인 벤젠과 톨루엔의 흡착용량측정결과로 입증되었다. 탈알루미늄된 제올라이트들의 수분에 대한 Si/Al비와 흡착용량은 각각 높은 농도의 질산으로 처리된 것일수록 증가하고 감소하여 소수성이 증가함을 나타내었다.(不適合性)이 나타났다. 본 연구는 기존의 기대수익률(期待收益率) 위주의 요일효과(曜日效果) 분석에서 주식수익률(株式收益率)의 분산(分散) 즉, 변동성(變動性)에 촛점을 두어 분석하였으며, 이는 투자자의 정확한 위험측정(危險測定)수단의 제공이라는 면에서 의의(意義)가 있을 것으로 생각된다.據金) 운용(運用)에 관한 정책수립시(政策樹立時) 금융선진국(金融先進國)의 증거금(證據金) 정책운용(政策運用)을 통한 시장관리(市場管理) 경험(經驗)을 어느 정도 참고할 수 있음을 시사한다고 할 것이다. 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)

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Risk Factors for Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device-Related Infections (이식형 심장 모니터링 장치 관련 감염의 위험요인)

  • Park, Jin Yeong;Choi, Hye-Ran
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.298-307
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED)-related infections within the first post-procedural year after CIED insertion. Methods: This study included 509 adult patients undergoing CIED implantation procedures between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2015. The data were analyzed by t-test, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and logistic regression analysis using SPSS/WIN 23.0. Results: Fifteen infections and 494 non-infections were examined. The CIED-related infection rate was 2.9%; patients with 14 pocket infections and one bacteremia were included in the CIED-related infection. The risk factors of CIED-related infections were the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≤ 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (Odds ratio [OR]= 4.03, 95% confidence interval [CI],1.15-14.10) and taking a new oral anticoagulant (NOAC) (OR = 4.50, 95% CI 1.09-18.55). Conclusion: These results identified the CIED infection rate and risk factors of CIED-related infection. It is necessary to consider these risk factors before the CIED implantation procedure and to establish the relevant nursing interventions.

Epidemiological Characteristic and Risk Factor of COVID-19 Cluster Related to Educational Facilities in Gangwon-do, Korea (December 10, 2020-September 23, 2021) (강원도내 교육시설관련 코로나바이러스감염증19 집단발생의 역학적특성과 위험요인 (2020.12.10-2021.9.23))

  • Hyosug Choi;Mi Young Kim;Shinyoung Lee;Eunmi Kim;Yeo Jin Kim
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.102-112
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: To identify the epidemiological characteristics and risk factors of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) outbreaks depending on the type of educational facility by analyzing the COVID-19 cluster associated with educational facilities. Methods: This study is based on epidemiological investigation of COVID-19 cluster in Gangwon-do, Korea from December 10, 2020 to September 23, 2021 reported to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency's Integrated Disease and Health Management System. Four hundred seven patients in 19 facilities, classified as cluster related to educational facilities, were the study population. The result of preliminary epidemiology survey report, in-depth epidemiological survey by phone and the result of risk assessment derived from the field epidemiology investigation were retrospectively analyzed to evaluate infectivity and the characteristics of the risk factors. Results: There were total of 407 confirmed patients related to 19 educational facilities, with 204 students under the age of 19 (50.1%). One hundred fifty-five preceding spreaders were from families (38.1%) and 125 were the teachers (30.7%). The place exposed to confirmed patients was the highest with 139 people (34.2%) at home. Conclusions: It was confirmed that the cause of the occurrence of clusters related to educational facilities was higher due to family transmission than the risk of facilities in schools. Nevertheless, continuous efforts should be made to control infection in educational facilities, and that teachers' implementation of principles for prevention of COVID-19 personal hygiene in their daily lives should be strengthened.

A Study on Quantitative Risk Assessment of Off-gas based Hydrogen Purification Facilities (부생가스 기반 수소 정제시설의 정량적 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Hyun-Gook Shin;Min-Joo Kim;Ji-Woon Jeong;Sang-Jun Ha;Jong-Ho Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2023
  • According to the Off-Gas Generation and Use Status Report (2015), Off-gas from the steel industry is estimated to be 80 million tons per year in Korea. If this is purified, large amounts of hydrogen can be produced, so active research and development related to hydrogen purification facilities is underway. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was conducted by analyzing the components of a off-gas based hydrogen purification facility and investigating risk factors. The risk analysis results were determined to be at an acceptable level and will be used as basic data to improve the safety of facilities considering the risks of hydrogen.