• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위장성

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Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Use of Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation in Acute Hypercapnic versus Hypoxic Respiratory Failure (급성 환기부전과 산소화부전에서 비침습적 환기법의 비교)

  • Lee, Sung Soon;Lim, Chae-Man;Kim, Baek-Nam;Koh, Younsuck;Park, Pyung Hwan;Lee, Sang Do;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong Soon;Kim, Won Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.987-996
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    • 1996
  • Background : We prospectively evaluated the applicability and effect of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in acute respiratory failure and tried to find out the parameters that could predict successful application of NIV. Methods : Twenty-six out of 106 patients with either acute ventilatory failure (VF: $PaCO_2$ > 43 mm Hg with pH < 7.35) or oxygenation failure (OF: $PaO_2/AO_2$ < 300 mm Hg with $pH{\geq}7.35$) requiring mechanical ventilation were managed by NIV (CPAP + pressure suppon, or BiPAP) with face mask. Eleven out of 19 cases with VF (57.9%) (M : F=7 : $55.4{\pm}14.6$ yrs) and 15 out of 87 cases with OF (17.2%) (M : F=12 : 3, $50.6{\pm}15.6$ yrs) were s uilable for NIY. Respiratory rates, arterial blood gases and success rate of NIV were analyzed in each group. Results: 81.8% (9/11) of YF and 40% (6/15) of OF were successfully managed on NIV and were weruled from mechanical ventilator without resorting to endotracheal intubation. Complications were noted in 2 cases (nasal skin necrosis 1, gaseous gastric distension 1). In NIV for ventilatory failure, the respiration rate was significantly decreased at 12 hour of NIV ($34{\pm}9$ /min pre-NIV, $26{\pm}6$ /min at 12 hour of NIV, p=0.045), while $PaCO_2$ ($87.3{\pm}20.6$ mm Hg pre-NIV, $81.2{\pm}9.1$ mm Hg at 24 hour of NIV) and pH ($7.26{\pm}0.04$, $7.32{\pm}0.02$, respectively, p <0.05) were both significantly decreased at 24 hour of NIV In NIV for oxygenation failure, $PaCO_2$ were not different between the successful and the failed cases at pre-NIV and till 12 hours after NIV. The $PaO_2/FIO_2$ ratio, however, significantly improved at 0.5 hour of NIV in successful cases and were maintained at around 200 mm Hg (n=6 : at baseline, 0.5h, 6h, 12h : $120.0{\pm}19.6$, $218.9{\pm}98.3$, $191.3{\pm}55.2$, $232.8{\pm}17.6$ mm Hg, respectively, p=0.0211), but it did not rise in the failed cases (n=9 : $127.9{\pm}63.0$, $116.8{\pm}24.4$, $100.6{\pm}34.6$, $129.8{\pm}50.3$ mm Hg, respectively, p=0.5319). Conclusion : From the above results we conclude that NIV is effective for hypercapnic respiratory failure and its success was heralded by reduction of respiration rale before the reduction in $PaCO_2$ level. In hypoxic respiratory failure, NIV is much less effective, and the immediate improvement of $PaO_2/FIO_2$ ratio at 0.5h after application is thought to be a predictor of successful NIV.

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