• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위기지수

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A Study on the Cargo Throughout of Yeosu·Gawangyang Port by Concentration Index (집중지수로 본 여수·광양항의 화물처리현황 분석)

  • Jang, Heung-Hoon;Kim, Sora
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.169-186
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    • 2019
  • This study suggests a development direction by comparing the cargo throughput of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang during 2007-2015 with that of domestic ports. It derived a concentration index (HHI) of cargo throughput in domestic ports by Yeosu-Gwangyang port docks, shipping companies, and abroad regions. The main results were as follows. First, in terms of total cargo handled, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang was second only to the port of Busan, and the HHIs for the past nine years were relatively low. Second, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang ranked first for total import and export cargo throughput, showing relatively stable HHIs from 2007 to 2015. Third, the HHIs of container handling performance by national shipping companies showed stable levels below 1,800. Fourth, there were no regions where cargo volume was noticeably concentrated in the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang, and it showed cargo throughput across various abroad regions. While changes in national shipping companies are expected after the Hanjin Shipping Crisis, there should be no serious concern regarding the dependence of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang. It is expected to develop further by realizing the full use of all its facilities, diversifying the tenants in the Yeosu-Gwangyang area, and improving the demurrage rate.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

An Analysis on the Influence of the Financial Market Fluctuations on the Housing Market before and after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 전후 금융시장 변동이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyeon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.480-488
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    • 2016
  • As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

Flora of Mt. Cheonma (Gyeonggi-do Prov.) (천마산(경기도)의 식물상)

  • Ha, Young-Ho;Yoon, Chang-Young;Kim, Sang-Chul;Kim, Joo-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.90-109
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to investigate the flora of Mt. Cheonma (Namyangju-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea), including Korean endemic, rare and endangered plants. To support the biodiversity and usefulness of this investigation, we checked the red list plants, floristic regional indicator plants, climate change adaptation target plants and naturalized plants, and compared composition of plant species in Mt. Cheonma with nearby mountains. Totally, we performed 22 field investigations from April 2012 to October 2014. The number of vascular plants in this region is 433 taxa and comprised of 94 families, 266 genera, 378 species, 2 subspecies, 46 varieties, and 7 forms. Among them, there are 13 endemic plants designated by Korean Forest Service, whereas only 10 taxa are endemic species by Korean Ministry of Environment (KME). According to the IUCN criteria, there are 12 rare and endangered plants composed of 9 Least Concerned (LC), 2 Vulnerable species (VU), and one Endangered species (EN) found by Korea National Arboretum (KNA). Meanwhile, 8 taxa including 7 Least Concerned (LC) were found in Red List of KME. The floristic regional indicator plants designated by KME were 49 taxa. In addition, there are 14 taxa in The Adaptable to Climate Change Plant List designated by KNA, while only 19 taxa are naturalized plants. Generally, there are 190 common taxa in Gwangju Mountains area, and only 51 taxa are distributed in Mt. Cheonma.

The Empirical Information Spillover Effect between the Housing Market and the Stock Market (주택시장과 주식시장 간의 정보 이전효과의 연구)

  • Choi, Chasoon
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2021
  • This paper empirically examined the relationship between the housing market and the stock market to investigate the price and the asymmetric volatility spillover effects. The monthly housing price index and the monthly KOSPI were used for analysis. This research employed the EGARCH model. The analysis period was from January 1986 until June 2021 with periodization centered on the Asian Financial Crisis: before and after the crisis - the end of December 1997. The EGARCH model allows analysis of 'good news' and 'bad news' in understanding volatility. The price spillover effect was observed one way from the stock market to the housing market. On the contrary, the spillover effect was not found from the housing market to the stock market. The empirical evidence suggests that there are price and asymmetric volatility effects in the entire period of analysis in both housing and the stock markets. In the housing market, the negative effects of information were found pre-financial crisis while the positive effects, in other periods. However, in the stock market, the negative effects of information were found in the pre- and post-financial crisis periods. This means that the housing market is more affected by 'good news' than 'bad news' when information spreads to the markets while the stock market is more affected by 'bad news' than 'good news'. It is of significance to discover the variable returns by different information.

The Relationship between Fatigue, Stress resistance and Emotion in Korean middle aged women (중년여성의 피로와 스트레스 저항력 그리고 정서와의 관계 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Eun;Park, Pyung-Woon;Hyun, Kyung-Sun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1145-1150
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between fatigue, stress resistance and emotion in middle aged women under the developmental crisis using a brain wave measurement which is a cranial physiological index. From March 2005 to June 2009, women aged between 35 and 65 (N=4402) who volunteered for a brain wave test at the KRIJUS( Korea Research Institute of Jungshin Science) were monitored the brain function quotient (tension degree, anti-stress quotient and emotional quotient). Correlation and time-series linear analysis revealed significantly the relationships between fatigue, stress resistance and emotion. Also, according to the emotional propensity, cheerful propensity was higher in the cheerful and depressed propensity, positive propensity was higher in the positive and negative propensity, during the whole test, cheerful and positive propensity was higher. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the quality of life by decreasing fatigue and stress level of the middle-aged women to maintain and increase their individual health and the better family relationship.

Variation in Cone, Seed, and Bract Morphology of Abies nephrolepis (Trautv.) Maxim. and A. koreana Wilson in Native Forests (분비·구상나무 천연집단(天然集團)의 구과(毬果), 종자(種子), 포침특성(苞針特性) 변이(變異))

  • Song, Jeong-Ho;Lee, Jung-Joo;Kang, Kyu-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.6
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    • pp.565-569
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    • 2008
  • Geographic variation of characteristics of cone, seed and bract morphology were examined in 8 populations of rare endemic Abies nephrolepis (Trautv.) Maxim and A. koreana Wilson. Additionally we studied classification index to distinguish between the species by the method of discriminant analysis. Nested ANOVA showed that there were statistically significant differences among populations as well as among individuals within populations in all 13 morphological traits. In the seed length, seed index, bract width, and bract index of A. nephrolepis and the bract width and index of A. koreana, variance components among populations were larger than those among individuals within populations. In discriminant analysis, three traits (cone width, length of seed wing, and bract length) were found to be useful in discriminating A. nephrolepis from A. koreana. The optimal classification results of stepwise selection were discriminated length of seed wing and bract length.

A Study on the cooperation activation among business: Focused on Leadership, Absorptive Capacity (기업 간 협업 활성화 방안에 대한 연구 : 리더십과 흡수역량을 중심으로)

  • Jeun, Hyang-Ok;Hyun, Byung-Hwang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, the global financial crisis has worsened the economic environment for small and medium-sized businesses. A great number of South Korean enterprises are having various managerial difficulties, such as insufficient funds, shortage of manpower and lack of market information. To overcome these difficulties, many experts have suggested plans to encourage cooperation among small businesses, and such cooperation has provided diverse services to complement the insufficient capabilities of the individual companies. In spite of the efforts made by government to incite cooperation, however, the businesses themselves have displayed a lack of willingness to such cooperation. Cooperation requires a series of complicated and interdependent processes and, thus, governmental support alone cannot guarantee the necessary willingness to cooperate among small businesses. This research empirically analyzed how cooperative and creative leaderships influence the willingness to cooperate among corporate members. We also empirically studied how relationships among corporate members vary in accordance with their absorptive capacity.

Evaluation of Ecological Optimum Discharge by consideration of Fish community in Dal Stream (어류군집을 고려한 달천유역의 생태학적 최적유량 산정)

  • Kwak, Seung-Joo;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.547-547
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 달천구간 (괴산댐~송동보)에서 어류 군집 (Fish Community)을 고려한 생태학적 최적유량 (Ecological Optimum Discharge)을 산정하였다. 이를 위해 유량증진방법론(IFIM: Instream Flow Incremental Methodology)을 기반으로 한 2차원 모형인 River-2D를 적용하여 수리해석 및 대상어종 (Target Fishes)에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA: Weighted Usable Area)을 산정하였다. 모형 검증을 위해 김원 등 (2007)에 의해 수행된 과업구간 내 수위 및 유량 모니터링 자료를 활용하였으며, 하류경계조건은 김지성 등 (2007)에 의한 수위-유량 관계곡선식을 활용하였다. 또한 평저류량 조건에서의 조도높이 (Roughness Height) 산정을 위해 유량 및 하상재료의 영향을 고려할 수 있는 멱함수 및 반대수함수 형태의 조도계수 공식을 적용하였다. 모형검증 결과 River-2D에 의해 계산된 수위값이 모니터링값과 비교적 잘 일치함을 알 수 있었다. 대상유역에 대한 어류 모니터링 (에코리버21사업단, 2007~2010) 결과를 바탕으로, 과업지역내 우점종 (피라미), 아우점종 (쉬리 등 3개 어종), 멸종위기어종 (묵납자루)을 대상어종으로 선정하였으며, 대상어종에 대한 서식도적합도지수 (HSI, Habitat Suitability Index) 산정을 위해 IFASG (Instream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group) 방법 및 WDWF (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) 방법을 적용하였다. 수심, 유속, 하상재료 및 하상형상에 대한 서식도적합도지수가 5가지 대상어종에 대해 각각 산정되었으며, 복합적합도지수 (CSI : Combined Suitability Index)를 고려한 과업대상 위치별 어류의 발생확률이 모의되었다. 어류 군집에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA)이 최대로 되는 생태학적 최적유량 산정 결과, Type I~III의 경우 모두 $10m^3/s$ 이하의 유량조건에 대해서 WUA가 최대값을 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 납자루속의 어류 (Type III)의 WUA가 000 및 000속 (Type II)의 어류에 비해서 작은 유량에서 더 큰 값을 갖으며, $10m^3/$s 초과 유량에 대해서는 반대의 경향이 나타나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness between Freight Index and Commodity Price (해상운임지수와 상품가격 사이의 동적 연계성 분석)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong;Kim, BuKwon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2022
  • This study applied the method of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014, 2016) to analyze the connectedness between the Freight Index (BDI, BDTI, BCTI), energy price(oil, natural gas, coal), and grain price(soybean, corn, wheat) from July 19, 2007 to March 31, 2022. The main analysis results of this paper are as follows. First, according to the network analysis results, the total connectedness was measured to be 20.43% for the entire analysis period, indicating that there was a low correlation between the freight index and the commodity price. In addition, looking at the directional results, the variable with the greatest effects was corn, and conversely, the variable with the lowest effects BDI. When classified by events, BCTI was found to play a major role only during the COVID-19 period. Second, according to the results of the rolling-sample analysis, the total connectedness be found to be highly correlated with changes in economic conditions such as the financial crisis, trade war, and COVID-19 when specific events occurred.