• Venture DIGEST
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• no.2 s.127
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• pp.56-57
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• 2009

어느날 저녁 귀가 후 잠자리에 들 준비를 하고 있는데 예전에 알고 지냈던 S사장님이 전화를 하셨다. 격 없이 지내던 사이지만 시계는 11시를 가리키고 있었고 목소리도 뭔가 대단히 화가 나 있었다. 전화 내용은 이러했다. 국제특송으로 영국서 6만 원짜리 물건을 받았는데 운임이 물건 값의 두 배인 12만 원이 나왔다는 거다. 한 밤중에 전화기를 들만도 하다. 보통 운임이 물건 값을 넘게 되면 물건을 받는 사람은 화부터 난다. 그런데 막상 따지고 싶어도 운임으로 청구된 금액이 무엇인지를 몰라 답답하기 일수다. 이번 호에서는 운임의 구성에 대해 살펴보기로 하자.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.545-563
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• 2018

This study analyzes the major factors affecting the freight rates of Very Large Crude-Oil Carriers (VLCC) using co-integration and vector error correction models (VECM). Particularly, we estimate the long-term equilibrium function that determines the VLCC freight rate by conducting difference conversion. In the VECM regression analysis, the error term converges toward long-term balance irrespective of whether the previous period's freight rate is bigger or smaller than the long-term equilibrium rate. Thus, even if the current rate is different from the long-term rate, it eventually converges to the long-term balance irrespective of a boom or recession. This study follows Ko and Ahn (2018), which analyzed the factors affecting the chemical carrier freight rate and was published in the Journal of Shipping and Logistics (Vol. 34, No. 2). It is expected that an academic comparison of the results of each study will be possible if further research is conducted on other vessel types, such as container ships and dry cargo vessels.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2019.11a
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• pp.193-194
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• 2019

Due to structural problems in the transportation market, such as fraudulent competition and multi-level transportation transactions, tariff are not properly refIected to the final trucker even if freight tariff are increased due to diesel price hikes and transportation cost increases. By Launched "standard tariff system" in 2017 based on the trucks, government would tried to guarantee the minimum tariff such that prevents overloading, speeding, and strain for trucker. However, It is necessary to analyze in advance the issue of the system and its impact on container freight. Thus, this study analyzes the issues and countermeasures related to the tariff system that is formed when the "Truck Safety Rates" is introduced, and also analyzes the influence factors of the expenditure cost on the container freight which is applied to the "Truck Safety Rates".

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.216-227
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• 2007

The aim of this paper is to find out the nature of causality between the two ocean freights employing the Granger method. That is because the Baltic freights tend to move very closely and seem to be behave like one time series. The Granger causality test, however, is very sensitive to the number of lags used in the analysis. This means that one has to be very careful in implementing the Granger causality test. This paper, hence, uses more rather than the lags which the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwarz Information Criterion suggest. This study shows that BPI does not "Granger-cause" BCI and BSI, but BCI and BSI Granger-cause BPI. I also discover that BHSI does not "Granger-cause" BPI and BSI, but BPI and BSI Granger-cause BHSI. I, hence, model and estimate the ocean freight function and show that the Baltic ocean freight market is inefficient and the biased estimator of the other freight.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.159-177
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• 2018

The container shipping sector is an important international logistics operation that connects open economies. Freight rates rapidly change as the market fluctuates, and staff related to the shipping market are interested in factors that determine freight rates in the container market. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) to estimate the impact of factors affecting container freight rates. This study uses data published by Clarksons. The analysis results show a 4.2% increase in freight rates when world container traffic increases at 1.0%, a 4.0% decrease in freight rates when volume of container carriers increases by 1.0%, a 0.07% increase in freight rates when bunker price increases by 1.0%, and a 0.04% increase in freight rates accompanying 1.0% increase in libor interests rates. In addition, if the current freight rate is 1.0% higher than the long-term equilibrium rate, the freight rate will be reduced by 3.2% in the subsequent term. In addition, if the current freight rate is 1.0% lower than the long-term equilibrium rate, the freight rate will decrease by 0.12% in the following term. However, the adjusting power in a period of recession is not statistically significant which means that the pressure of freight rate increase in this case is neglectable. This research is expected to contribute to the utilization of scientific methods in forecasting container freight rates.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.12
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• pp.47-53
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• 2019

The purpose of the study was to utilize VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) and detect causal relationships among shipping freight rates. Shipping freight rates used in this study were BDI(Baltic Dry Index), HRCI(Howe Robinson Containership Index), WS(World Scale rate) and SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index). Using weekly data published since August 2nd, 2013 to September 6th, 2019, it was discovered that BDI and WS were heavily influenced by past week's BDI and WS respectively. VECM also found that one percent increase in WS resulted in 0.022% increase in following week's HRCI data. One percent increase in HRCI affects SCFI by 0.77% on the following week. This study believes that finding may help each shipping market of shipping freight rates estimates, thereby encouraging decision markers to exercise discretion and establish best interest decision.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.69-88
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• 2023

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR² reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2016

This study empirically examines the dynamic specification of the ship price model based on a vector autoregressive model and data covering from January 2000 to October 2014. Our results are summarized as follows: first, the relationship between ship price and interest rate shows significantly negative and the relationship between ship price and freight rate shows positive. It provides consistent implication that ship price depends on interest rate and freight rate under the dynamic Gordon model. Second, we apply an impulse response analysis to ship price and find the responses of the ship price from both factors, interest rate and freight rate, which affect during seven periods approximately. Finally, the results of a variance decomposition indicate that freight rate is more important than interest rate on the ship price.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.111-123
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• 2022

In the era of the Covid19, container shipping rates are surging up. Many studies have attempted to investigate the factors affecting a surge in container shipping rates. However, there is limited literature using text mining techniques for analyzing the underlying causes of the surge. This study aims to identify the factors behind the unprecedented surge in shipping rates using network text analysis and LDA topic modeling. For the analysis, we collected the data and keywords from articles in Lloyd's List during past two years(2020-2021). The results of the text analysis showed that the current surge is mainly due to "US-China trade war", "rising blanking sailings", "port congestion", "container shortage", and "unexpected events such as the Suez canal blockage".

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.53.4-54
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• 2015

분자운의 광대역 분포는 작은 영역에서는 볼 수 없는 독특한 모습을 보여준다. 본 연구는 2010년도 TRAO 관측으로 얻는 외은하면의 $4.3^{\circ}{\times}2^{\circ}$의 광대역 데이터를 사용해서 광대역 분자운 분포의 특성을 분석했다. 광대역 분자운들은 형태학적 특징에 의거해서 네 종류로 분류되었다: chain, twisted filament, speckle, cluster suspect 이들의 특징을 간략히 소개하고 광대역 분자운들을 보는 새 관점으로 분자운 충돌 이론을 소개한다. 그와 함께 광대역 연구의 대표적인 예로 두 전파원을 소개한다. 첫째는 CTB109 (3C 434.1) 근처 분자운이며, 길다란 CO filament가 포함된다. 둘째는 "집게벌레(S157 ab 포함)"로서 강한 별 탄생을 보여주는 특이한 영역으로서 강한 CO emission이 두 개 twisted filament 구조를 보여준다. 연구에는 DRAO HI, IRAS 적외선 자료, DRAO Radio continuum data를 사용했고, CO 자료를 통해서 분자운의 질량과 밀도, 온도 등의 기본 물리량을 계산했다.