• Title/Summary/Keyword: 운용 불확실성

Search Result 65, Processing Time 0.018 seconds

An Analytical Study on the Behavior of Slab Structure Considering the Remodeling (리모델링 공사를 고려한 슬래브 구조물의 거동에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Choi, Hoon;Joo, Hyung-Joong;Lee, Seung-Sik;Yoon, Soon-Jong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.106-112
    • /
    • 2010
  • Due to the improvement and stabilization of the social environment, construction market in the urban region is under shrinking. According, researches to lengthen the service life of the existing building structures are under the way through the remodeling or maintenance of deteriorated structures other than the new constructions. Similar situations are widely discussed in the domestic building construction market and the social importance of the remodeling of the existing building structures is increased. Although the structural stability of the building is uncertain due to the frequent repairing and structural changing, the remodeling works are usually conducted. In general, documents such as drawings and calculations for the design of the deteriorated structure to be remodeled are not kept. Accident at the remodeling site frequently occur because of the lack of thorough understanding of changed situations such as loadings, loading paths, changing of the mechanical properties of material, etc. In this paper, using the finite element analysis method, we investigated the structural behaviors of slab in the remodeling building and the results are applied to remodeling construction, and the appropriateness of the remodeling works are evaluated.

A Model for the Optimal Mission Allocation of Naval Warship Based on Absorbing Markov Chain Simulation (흡수 마코프 체인 시뮬레이션 기반 최적 함정 임무 할당 모형)

  • Kim, Seong-Woo;Choi, Kyung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.558-565
    • /
    • 2021
  • The Republic of Korea Navy has deployed naval fleets in the East, West, and South seas to effectively respond to threats from North Korea and its neighbors. However, it is difficult to allocate proper missions due to high uncertainties, such as the year of introduction for the ship, the number of mission days completed, arms capabilities, crew shift times, and the failure rate of the ship. For this reason, there is an increasing proportion of expenses, or mission alerts with high fatigue in the number of workers and traps. In this paper, we present a simulation model that can optimize the assignment of naval vessels' missions by using a continuous time absorbing Markov chain that is easy to model and that can analyze complex phenomena with varying event rates over time. A numerical analysis model allows us to determine the optimal mission durations and warship quantities to maintain the target operating rates, and we find that allocating optimal warships for each mission reduces unnecessary alerts and reduces crew fatigue and failures. This model is significant in that it can be expanded to various fields, not only for assignment of duties but also for calculation of appropriate requirements and for inventory analysis.

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.54 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-135
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.33-45
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

The Effect of Environmental Factors on Competency and Performance of Venture Companies: The Double Mediating Effect of Venture Firm Confirmation System Benefits and Venture Firm Internal Competencies (벤처기업에 대한 환경적 요소가 역량 및 성과에 미치는 영향: 벤처기업 확인제도 혜택과 벤처기업 내부 역량의 이중매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Park, Dain;Kim, Daejin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.241-253
    • /
    • 2023
  • In the current rapidly changing environment, each country continues to make efforts to create jobs and strengthen technological competitiveness. In particular, support and revitalization policies for venture companies and start-ups are known to play a role in increasing national competitiveness. Companies should make appropriate replacements amid growing uncertainties in the environment in which business life is shortened and customer needs are diversified due to intensifying competition. First of all, it is important for companies to make efforts to strengthen their internal capabilities on their own. However, venture companies lack internal resources and capabilities, so support from the external environment is important enough to lead to the survival of the company(Timmons, 1994). Financial support and certification systems are being operated at the national level to strengthen the competitiveness of companies. However, financial support can lower a company's self-sustainability depending on the situation, so non-financial support such as R&D support and start-up education is considered to be helpful in the long term for venture growth(Aghion et al., 2012; Jeon & Ko, 2021). Non-financial support is divided into commercialization, facilities, space, childcare, manpower, and certification systems, and this study confirmed the benefits of the venture company confirmation system, which is a certification system. To this end, the 2021 venture company precision survey data and venture company sales data were used, and analyzed using the SPSS 26.0 package and SPSS PROCESS MACRO. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the level of the management environment of venture companies has a positive effect on the benefits of the venture confirmation system or increasing the level of venture company capabilities, but it is difficult to lead to actual management performance. In addition, it was confirmed that the level of venture company competency mediates the relationship between the level of the venture company's business environment and management performance. As a result, even if the level of the venture company's business environment is positive or venture-friendly, it can be said that companies with internal capabilities to digest support from the external environment increase management performance.

  • PDF