• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.87-95
• /
• 2016

This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.573-605
• /
• 2015

This study proposed scenarios of tax reform regarding taxation on bituminous coal for power generation since July 2015 and July 2014, estimated its impact on SMP, settlement price, tax revenue from year 2015 to year 2029. These scenarios are compared with those of the standard scenario. To estimate them, the power system simulation was performed based on the government plan, such as demand supply program and the customized model to fit Korea's power system and operation. Imposing a tax on bituminous coal for power generation while maintaining tax neutrality reducing tax rate on LNG, the short-term SMP is lowered than the one of the standard scenario. Because the cost of nuclear power generation is still smaller than costs of other power generation, and the nuclear power generation rarely determines SMPs, the taxation impact on SMP is almost nonexistent. Thus it is difficult to slow down the electrification of energy consumption due to taxation of power plant bituminous coal in the short term, if SMP and settlement price is closely related. However, in the mid or long term, if the capacity of coal power plant is to be big enough, the taxation of power plant bituminous coal will increase SMP. Therefore, if the tax reform is made to impose on power plant bituminous coal in the short term, and if the tax rate on LNG is to be revised after implementing big enough new power plants using bituminous coal, the energy demand would be reduced by increasing electric charges through energy tax reform. Both imposing a tax on power plant bituminous coal and reducing tax rate on LNG increase settlement price, higher than the one of the standard scenario. In the mid or long term, the utilization of LNG complex power plants would be lower due to an expansion of generating plants, and thus, the tax rate on LNG would not affect on settlement price. Unlike to the impact on SMP, the taxation on nuclear power plants has increased settlement price due to the impact of settlement adjustment factor. The net impact of energy taxation will depend upon the level of offset between settlement price decrease by the expansion of energy supply and settlement price increase by imposing a tax on energy. Among taxable items, the tax on nuclear power plants will increase the most of additional tax revenue. Considering tax revenues in accordance with energy tax scenarios, the higher the tax rate on bituminous coal and nuclear power, the bigger the tax revenues.

• Journal of Animal Environmental Science
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.39-48
• /
• 2011

The present survey was conducted to provide basic information on automatic milking system (AMS) in relation to purchase motive, milk yield and quality, customer satisfaction, difficulties of operation and customer suggestions, etc. Purchase motives of AMS were insufficient labor (44%), planning of dairy experience farm (25%), better performance of high yield cows (19%) and others (6%), respectively. Average cow performance after using AMS was 30.9l/d for milk yield, 3.9% for milk fat, 9,100/ml for bacterial counts. Sixty-eight percentage of respondents were very positive in response to AMS use for their successors but 18% were negative. The AMS operators were owner (44%), successor (44%), wife (6%) and company worker (6%), respectively. The most difficulty (31%) in using AMS was operating the system and complicated program manual. The rate of response to system error and breakdown was 25%. The reasons for culling cow after using AMS were mastitis (28%), reproduction failure (19%), incorrect teat placement (12%), metabolic disease (7%) and others (14%), respectively. Fifty-six percentages of the respondents made AMS maintenance contract and 44% did not. Average annual cost of the maintenance contract was 6,580,000 won. Average score for AMS satisfaction measurement (1 to 5 range) was 3.2 with decrease of labor cost 3.7, company A/S 3.6, increase of milk yield 3.2 and decrease of somatic cell count 2.8, respectively. Suggestions for the higher efficiency in using AMS were selecting cows with correct udder shape and teat placement, proper environment, capital and land, and attitude for continuous observation. Systematic consulting was highly required for AMS companies followed by low cost for AMS setup and systematization of A/S.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.59-71
• /
• 2014

System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.38 no.6_1
• /
• pp.1125-1139
• /
• 2022

In an unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) system, a physical offset can be existed between the global positioning system/inertial measurement unit (GPS/IMU) sensor and the observation sensor such as a hyperspectral sensor, and a lidar sensor. As a result of the physical offset, a misalignment between each image can be occurred along with a flight direction. In particular, in a case of multi-sensor system, an observation sensor has to be replaced regularly to equip another observation sensor, and then, a high cost should be paid to acquire a calibration parameter. In this study, we establish a precise sensor model equation to apply for a multiple sensor in common and propose an independent physical offset estimation method. The proposed method consists of 3 steps. Firstly, we define an appropriate rotation matrix for our system, and an initial sensor model equation for direct-georeferencing. Next, an observation equation for the physical offset estimation is established by extracting a corresponding point between a ground control point and the observed data from a sensor. Finally, the physical offset is estimated based on the observed data, and the precise sensor model equation is established by applying the estimated parameters to the initial sensor model equation. 4 region's datasets(Jeon-ju, Incheon, Alaska, Norway) with a different latitude, longitude were compared to analyze the effects of the calibration parameter. We confirmed that a misalignment between images were adjusted after applying for the physical offset in the sensor model equation. An absolute position accuracy was analyzed in the Incheon dataset, compared to a ground control point. For the hyperspectral image, root mean square error (RMSE) for X, Y direction was calculated for 0.12 m, and for the point cloud, RMSE was calculated for 0.03 m. Furthermore, a relative position accuracy for a specific point between the adjusted point cloud and the hyperspectral images were also analyzed for 0.07 m, so we confirmed that a precise data mapping is available for an observation without a ground control point through the proposed estimation method, and we also confirmed a possibility of multi-sensor fusion. From this study, we expect that a flexible multi-sensor platform system can be operated through the independent parameter estimation method with an economic cost saving.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.153-172
• /
• 1990

The present paper investigates the potential value of strategic antitrust policy in an oligopolistic international market. The market is characterized by a non-cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibrium and by asymmetry in costs among firms in the world market. The model is useful for two reasons. First, it is important in the context of policy-making to examine the conditions under which it may be beneficial to relax antitrust law to enhance competitiveness. Second, the explicit derivation of the level of cost-saving required for a gain in total domestic surplus provides an empirical rule for excluding industries that do not satisfy the requirements for a socially beneficial antitrust exemption. Results of the analysis include a criterion that tells how the cost-saving and concentration effects of a merger offset each other. The criterion is derived from fairly general assumptions on demand functions and is simple enough to be applied as a part of the merger guidelines. Another interesting policy implication of our analysis is that promoting mergers would not be a beneficial strategy in a net importing industry where cost-saving opportunities are thin. Cost-saving domestic mergers are more likely to increase national welfare in exporting industries. The best candidate industries for application of strategic antitrust policy are those with the following characteristics: (i) a large potential for efficiency enhancement; (ii) high market concentration at the world but not the domestic level; (iii) a high ratio of exports to imports. Recently, many policymakers and economists in Korea have also come to believe that the appropriate antitrust policy in an era of increased foreign competition may actually be to encourage rather than to prohibit domestic mergers. The Industry Development Act of 1986 and the proposed bill for Mergers and Conversions in the Financial Industry of 1990 reflect this changing perspective on antitrust policy. Antitrust laws may burden domestic firms in the sense that they have a more constrained strategy set. Expenditures to avoid antitrust attacks could also increase costs for domestic firms. But there is no clear evidence that the impact of antitrust policy is significant enough to harm the competitiveness of domestic firms. As a matter of fact, it is necessary for domestic financial institutions to become large in scale in this era of globalization. However, the absence of empirical evidence for efficiency enhancement from mergers suggests caution in the relaxation of antitrust standards.

• Korean Security Journal
• /
• no.36
• /
• pp.349-386
• /
• 2013

This research analyzes and evaluates The Korean Security Industry Law(TKSIL) putting the regulation of the present government about the private security industry. It nowadays becomes the important axis of the police services offered in the aspect of 'the national life safety' in connection with 'the materialization of society which is safe from the crime'. TKSIL is one of the national administration strategies which Park Gun-hye government aims on supervision policy. After seeking out the core values of the private security industrial policy which sets up in order to approach the national life safety which Park Gun-hye government aims, we make some assessments of this revised security industry law systematically. Particularly all keynote of policy about the private security of the police tried to be confirmed and the desirable direction of policy tries to be presented as to the security industry law application and real operation. In the site of organized civil complaint, the revised security industry law was revised as the direction which intensifies the administrative regulation as to the partial regulation such as it established the reason of the introduction of the arrangement license system. And grounds for disqualification of security instructor and guard, and rules of punishment is intensified order to intercept previously illegal and violent act of the security company etc. However it has the feature that it accomplishes 'the law principle(principle of statute)' the substantial portion through the effort of them changing a lot the content for the form of the law when being the clauses of the fundamental human rights limit, although it has been prescribed in "the security industry law enforcement ordinance" or "the security industry law enforced regulation". The security industry law revised this time brought from the change of the sharp policy through the revision of 17 clauses or new establishment. It can divide into 4 categorizes. (1) strictness of punishment in the site of organized civil complaint (2) Intensification of throwing out for the violation person in the private security business market time-limitedly (3) Intensification of the legal guide supervision power of police (4) upstream of the capital, name tag attachment under compulsion and the limit about other equipment use etc. Essentially "the security industry law" cannot help regulating the national interference of the private security and regulation with this content. However as to this interference and regulation, the limit has to be possible within reasonable range. As the history proved, excessive regulation by the country is not only due to bring the distortion of the security system of nation but also provoke national social cost. It can't be disregards ever that it premises the harmony which appropriate as well as reasonable in the socio-economic dimension for drawing the best combination that all things which get the compulsory education, it limits the person providing the private security service to the corporation, or it limits to the certificate of qualification holder are the ultimate for 'the safety of the national life'.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Information Technology Applications Conference
• /
• 2007.05a
• /
• pp.300-320
• /
• 2007

정보기술의 발달과 함께 소프트웨어 제품은 모든 산업에 필수요소가 되었고, 품질과 평가에 대한 관심도 점차 증가되고 있다. 하지만 일부 산업에서는 소프트웨어 품질 평가에 대한 사용자들의 만병 통치적 기대, 품질 표준의 부족, 측정을 위한 양질의 데이터 부족, 소프트웨어 분석과 디자인에 대한 공학적 한계로 소프트웨어 품질 평가에 대해 많은 문제점이 지적되고 있다. 국내에서도 의료산업 관련 정보시스템의 오류 및 사용자들의 운영 미숙은 매년 많은 금액의 사회적 비용을 증가시켰고, 병원정보시스템의 품질에 대한 관심을 초래하였다. 특히, 산업적 특성이 강한 병원정보시스템은 성공적 구축을 위해 사용자 중심의 소프트웨어 디자인과 다양한 전문가들의 지식 통합이 필요하며, 정보시스템 품질 측정으로 연구자들과 개발자들의 시스템 설계 혼란을 감소시키는 방법론이 필요하다는 연구들이 등장하고 있다. 대부분의 병원정보시스템이 단편적인 업무처리 위주로 개발 운영되고 있고, 장기적 경영전략이나 임상연구를 위한 분석적 정보처리 기능들은 결여되어 있다. 또한 소프트웨어 재설계나 추가적 개발 에 활용될 수 있는 객관적 품질 기준이 부족하고, 사용자들의 요구사항에 대해 소프트웨어 설계에 있어서 효율적으로 반영되지 못하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 최근 발표된 병원정보시스템 품질 평가에 대한 연구 경향을 종합하고, 품질 평가에 대 해 효율적으로 활용되고 있는 사용성(Usability)을 기준으로 병원산업의 특수성을 포함한 품질 평가 방법과 품질척도를 제안하고자 한다. 국제표준기구(ISO:International Standards Organization)에서는 품질 특성을 기능성, 신뢰성, 사용성, 효율성, 유지 보수성과 이식성의 특성을 제시하고 있다. 특히 Folmer & Bosch(2004)가 정리한 ISO9126에서는 품질의 특성을 배움의 용이성, 운영의 용이성, 이해성과 매력성으로 분류하였고, ISO9241-11는 효과성, 효율성과 만족성으로 분류하였다. 또한 Shackel(1991)은 배움의 용이성(배움과 시간, 기억력), 효과성(오류, 직무시간), 유연성과 마음가짐으로 분류하고 있다(Shackel, 1991). Nielsen(1997)은 배움의 용이성, 기억의 용이성, 오류, 효율성, 만족성으로 분류하고 있고(Nielsen, 1997), Shneiderman(1998)는 효과성(직무시간, 배움의 시간), 효율성(기억의 지속시간, 오류), 만족도를 품질의 특성으로 분류하였다. 이와 같은 소프트웨어의 품질은 소프트웨어 계획, 개발, 성장과 쇠퇴의 모든 과정에 적용되며, 환경적 변화에 따라 사용자들의 정보욕구를 적절하게 반영하여 만족도를 높이 는 것이라고 요약할 수 있다. 그러나 현재까지 소프트웨어 품질 평가에 대한 연구들 은 보편적인 평가 항목들을 대상으로 측정하여 일반적인 품질기준을 제시하고 있고, 유사한 측정 내용들이 중복되어 있다. 이러한 경향은 산업별 특수성이 강한 소프트웨어에 대해서는 정확한 품질측정이 어려웠고, 품질측정에 대한 신뢰성을 떨어뜨리는 계기가 되었다. 이러한 한계를 극복하고자 나타난 방법론이 최종사용자들의 요구사항을 얼마나 적절하게 시스템에 반영했는지에 대한 사용성(Usability) 측정이다. 사용성에 대한 정의는 사용자들이 실질적으로 일하는 장소에서 직접 사용자들의 시스템 운용실태를 파악하여 문제점을 개선하는 것으로 요약할 수 있다. ISO9124-11에서는 사용성을 "어떤 제품이 구체적인 사용자들에 의해 구체적인 목적을 달성하기 위한 구체적인 사용의 맥락에서 효율성, 효과성을 만족함으로 사용될 수 있는 정도"로 정의하고 있다. 지난 10년간 병원정보시스템 평가에 대한 문헌들을 고찰한 결과 품질 측정의 효과는 정보화에 대한 동기유발과 의료품질을 높이는 게기가 되었으며, 질병에 대한 예방효과도 높은 것으로 조사되었다. 그러나 평가에 대한 인식의 문제, 평가 방법의 신뢰성 부족, 평가 지침과 부분적 평가에 따른 인증의 어려움 평가 결과에 대한 확산과 단편적 연구의 한계 등으로 연구결과에 대한 신뢰도와 활용도는 낮은 것으로 조사되었고, HIS에 대한 연구 빈도와 범위 가 매우 미약하였다. 특히, 품질속성은 같은 용어이지만 연구자에 따라 전혀 다른 측정 내용을 제시하고 있어 효율적인 품질 지표를 제시하는데 많은 혼란을 초래하고 있다. 이러한 품질 평가의 경향은 시스템 설계 및 개발자들에게 필요한 사용자들의 구체적이고 독특한 욕구나 병원정보시스템 환경의 특수성 파악에 한계를 보였으며, 평가 범위도 부분적으로 이루어져 전사적 시스템 설계 및 개발에 중요한 자료를 제공하지 못하고 있다. 이러한 문제점과 한계를 극복하고자 ISO와 같은 품질 표준 속성과 컨텍스트(Context)를 중심으로 사용자에 의한 평가 척도의 설정은 구체적이고 실용적이며 신뢰성 있는 평가 방법이 될 것이다.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
• /
• v.31 no.3
• /
• pp.337-343
• /
• 2017

This study is going to contribute the activation of ecosystem services written in the 3rd National Basic Plan for Nature Conservation(2016~2025) in Korea. Meanwhile we considered the benefits that the nature has given to the humankind as free goods or services which we may consume traditionally without due payment therefore. But on account of the expansion of cities and expedition of development, as the carrying capacity of the nature has been breached, people have come to try to restore and enhance artificially such vulnerable capacity. It is necessary to compensate the opportunity cost which the land owners or occupiers have to pay for conservation and maintenance of natural capitals which yield the ecosystem services. Therefore the institutionalization of ecosystem services should be established that the consumers who enjoy such services should share the interest from enjoying services with the land owners or occupiers who produce the ecosystem services, under the legal system which will make it possible to connect the benefit sharing with the conservation of environment. However it is the first task that the present legal system could not realize the fair and equitable benefit sharing between the producers and consumers of ecosystem services. And the second task in such legal system is that the value of ecosystem services could not be fully considered in the process of development planning. According to the analysis of this study, the institutionalization of ecosystem services in the government side and the civilian side could be realized to somewhat extent, although not sufficient. Especially the transactions of ecosystem services through the private contract among stakeholder are possible in the course of development planning or without any relevancy to a development project. The final task in the institutionalization of ecosystem services is how to assess the ecosystem services and to value the economic benefits therefrom on the basis of what kinds of procedures relating to some development processes. To overcome such difficulties, it is necessary that the state, trend and change of ecosystem services confronting with a developing project should be assessed concretely at the threshold of development. It is possible to integrate the ecosystem services into the environmental impact assessment(IEA), not by way of the Act of IEA, but by way of the Decree thereof.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.3-19
• /
• 1991

This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.