• Title/Summary/Keyword: 요인활용 다변수 자기 회귀 모형(FAVAR)

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The Effects of Government Spending in Korea: a FAVAR Approach (FAVAR 모형을 이용한 한국 정부지출의 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Wongi
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.100-137
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    • 2019
  • In this study, I analyzed the effects of government spending on macro variables and on each industry by using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) and 167 macro-variables in Korea since 2000. The results reveal that the effects of two types of government spending - government consumption and government investment - greatly differ, therefore it is better to consider the two types of spending separately for a more precise analysis. The stimulus effects of government consumption are clear, but those of government investment are not. In addition, the crowding-out effects of government spending take place through the current account deficit channel rather than the traditional crowding-out channel, reducing private consumption and investment. Both types of government spending show a positive effect on the construction industry. Also, an increase in government consumption stimulates output in various manufacturing and service sectors.