• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.1419-1429
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• 2010

Industry structure and environment of the domestic bank have been changed by an influx of large foreign-banks and advanced financial products when the currency crisis erupted in Korea. In a competitive environment, accurate forecasts of changes and tendencies are essential for the survival and development. Forecast of whether to approve loan applications for customer or not is an important matter because that is related to profit generation and risk management on the bank. Therefore, this paper proposes the method to improve forecast accuracy of loan underwriting. Processes in experiments are as follows. First, we select the predictor variables which affect significantly to the result of loan underwriting by correlation analysis and feature selection technique, and then cluster the customers by the 2-Step clustering technique based on selected variables. Second, we find the most accurate forecasting model for each clustering by applying LR, NN and SVM. Finally, we compare the forecasting accuracy of the proposed method with the forecasting accuracy of existing application way.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.114-123
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• 2018

Korea's Export Support Policy has shifted from conglomerate to SMEs since the 1998 IMF financial crisis. Therefore the SME export result in 2011 has reached the quantitative growth of more than US$ 100 billion for the first time. However, the trend has remained stagnant since 2013. Such a stagnant is judged to exist on the part of the Export Support Policies that fail to significantly enhance export competitiveness. Therefore, in order to expand the base of the export capabilities of SMEs and enhance the export competitiveness, the researcher has analyzed the problems of the Export Support Policy focused from the major prior studies since 2010 and derived the efficiency improvement methods. The results of this study are as follows: First, it is necessary to select or combine the following measures. they are the coordination or combination of the functions of the export support institutions, the operation of the single export support institutions, the utilization of the cooperative support system between the support institutions, the use of the private enterprises. First, it is necessary to review the following measures: they are the functional adjustment and integration among export support agencies, the adjustment of support organizations by export stage, the role coordinating between the Small and Medium Business Administration and the Local Government. Secondly, it is necessary to build a customized support system for enterprises. Thirdly, in order to secure the manpower and expertise of the support organization, it is necessary to review the utilization of the retired manpower the from the trade companies or the youth intern system. Fourthly, it is suggested that the balanced performance index is required for the export support programs with a certain scale and need to increase the portion the external evaluation together with the quantitative and qualitative evaluation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.586-599
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• 2017

This study attempts to understand the overall research trends in Vocational Studies using a text mining method, which is a means to analyze big data. The findings of the research show that Vocational Studies in Korea has been directly influenced by global economic crises, as evidenced by its exponential growth after the 1997 foreign exchange crisis that resulted in a bailout from the IMF. In addition, the topics of research have been shifting from such macro subjects as government policies and systems to such micro topics as individual career development. Moreover, the perspective of research is being moved from the socially vulnerable, including women and the disabled, to the economically marginalized, including retirees and the unemployed. As for the research targets, college students overwhelmingly outnumbered primary and secondary school students. However, few cases analyzed the clinical outcomes of career counseling or attempted to process job information and study the history of jobs. This research is limited in that it only analyzed journal abstracts. Nonetheless, it is meaningful because it used topic analysis, one of the text mining methods, to give a complete enumeration of all articles available for search, thereby crafting a framework of quantitative analysis methodology for Vocational Studies. It is also significant in that it is the first attempt to analyze themes in every stage of the development of Vocational Studies.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.75-101
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• 2010

One of the reasons for low fertility rate in Korea is related to the delayed marriage among the population belong to marriage cohorts. The major goal of this study is to analyze how the economic resources such as level of education, whether employed or not, and occupation have affected one's marriage opportunity and how it is differed by gender. Meanwhile, the changes in the influence of economic resources and the changes in the marriage norms were also studied by analyzing 2% Census data in 1995, 2000 and 2005. Total number of 1.1 million men and women in their ages between 20 to 44 are included in data and binary-logistic analysis is used for statistical research. This study supports a traditional hypothesis that the influence of economic resources on probability of marriage is different by gender. More important academic contribution of this study is the quality of economic resources is becoming more important for men since Asian economic crisis and that the negative effect of it on women is declining since 2000. It is analyzed that the effect of marriage norm has recently decreased on the part of women. These findings suggest that there is a tendency of polarization of marriage market in Korea affected by economic polarization since Asian economic crisis.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.179-196
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• 2005

This study investigates whether the designated firm is affected by the financial characteristics prior to the korea stock exchange designating subject to administrative issues. that is, analyzes financial differences of the designated finn(AIF) from another firm(NAIF) in the same asset-scale and industry for 5 years prior to designating date. For this purpose, financial variables related with scale, profitability, growth nature, liquidity, stability, and active nature are chosen. 113 AIFs and 113 NIAFs are selected from listed stock on the korea stock exchange between 1991 and 1999. As a result, it is found that there are significant difference in all profitability, stability, active nature related financial variables for 5 years prior to each designation date. The difference is more significant as the designating date approaches. But, no significant difference is not found in all growth nature related financial variables for 5 years prior to each designation date. Liquidity related financial variables show significant difference in only the 1st year before designation date. To be short, the financial factors of profitability, liquidity, stability, and active nature have an effect on the designated firms.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.161-189
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• 2009

The sub-prime crisis led to the collapse of US investment banks which were considered highly competitive during the Asian Financial Crisis. The event gave us a lesson on importance of the financial supervision. Additionally concerns rise over the fact that the role model of the Capital Market Law, created for the purpose of developing the capital market, is the US investment banks. This paper investigates if the prudential regulations, among them especially the capital regulation, are able to prevent the risk the arises from Korean financial firms operating investment bank business. The current capital requirement regulation, Net Capital Ratio(NCR), is not sufficient, because it's nature of being a ratio makes the NCR ineffective when assets and liabilities are concurrently rising. We also verified the internal model which measured the market risk, by comparing the US investment and Korean banks' diversification effect. The result of the test is that it is difficult to conclude the internal model has a critical defect. This paper's contribution is that it is not sufficient use only the capital regulation in supervising financial markets.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.47-85
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• 2009

With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move with in the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea's GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the corss-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea's business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an over all perspective, Korea's business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.33-70
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• 2008

This paper examines sources of growth of Korea's economy for the period from 1980 to 2005, based on both primal and dual growth accounting methodology employed by Young (1995) and Hsieh (2002). Also, this paper evaluates post-crisis growth performance of Korea, using cross-country comparison of growth accounting results and cross-country regressions. Main results of this paper are as follows. First, the growth slowdown after the crisis has been mainly driven by the slowdown of per worker capital accumulation. By contrast, the estimated TFPG of Korea for the period from 2001 to 2005 seems higher than, or at least roughly comparable to, the estimated TFPG in the pre-crisis period of 1991-1995. In theses respects, there were no substantial differences between the results obtained from primal and dual growth accounting methodology. Second, the cross-country regressions revealthat post-crisis growth slowdown of the Korea's economy can be largely attributed to world growth slowdown (decade effect) and East Asia-specific effects. In particular, it was found that the noticeable decelerationin per worker capital accumulation can be mostly attributed to some unknown factors which commonly affected East Asian countries. Viewed from an international perspective, the lowered post-crisis per worker GDP growth rate, as well as per-worker capital growth, which triggered concerns and debates in varying contexts, still seems respectable. So, the slowdown in capital accumulation is likely to be mainly a story of spectacularly high rate of capital accumulation in the pre-crisis period, not a story of 'weak' investment after the crisis.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.95-124
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• 2017

The dispute analysed in this article concern eight measures taken by Argentina regarding finance, taxation, foreign exchange, and registration. The dispute centered on whether these measures were in violation of the Member's obligations under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), namely most-favored national treatment, national treatment and market access, and whether they are justified by Article XIV and Article 2(a) of the Annex on Financial Services. Important arguments raised in the dispute include whether the services and the service providers of cooperative and non-cooperative countries and/or Argentina subjected to the measures are like for the purposes of Article II and Article XVII of the GATS, whether the regulatory aspects of the measures are to be considered in determining the inconsistency with Article II and Article XVII of the GATS, and whether the measures are justified in that they were taken in accordance with the national laws and regulations aimed at implementing the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes and the Financial Action Task Force. The essence of this dispute lies in the balance of each Member's right to regulate commercial and/or financial activities and its obligations under the GATS. The Appellate Body tried to strike such a balance in its assessment of: (i) likeness of services and service suppliers, (ii) no less favorable treatment under Articles II and XVII, and (iii) the scope of measures under Article 2(a) of the Annex on Financial Services. This article aims to provide an analysis of the Appellate Body's findings, giving light to the relevant jurisprudence and scholars' writings.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.101-133
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• 2006

We examine whether new derivatives on KOSPI 200 affect volatility asymmetry of KOSPI 200 portfolio, relative to the carefully matched non-KOSPI 200 portfolio. To test the effect or new derivatives trading, we use GJR-GARCH model and newly developed Volatility Ratio(down-market volatility to up-market volatility ratio). Our results show that KOSPI 200 portfolio experiences lower volatility asymmetry than non-KOSPI 200 portfolio after the trading of new derivatives on KOSPI 200, especially after the introduction of stock index options(KOSPI 200 options). For non-KOSPI portfolio, no significant reduction in volatility asymmetry occurred when trading of stock index options began. Also, we find that in the period of after January 1999, the period of after do-regulations and Financial Crisis in the Korean capital market, volatility asymmetry of stock markets was significantly decreased. This means that level of volatility asymmetry is closely related to the level of market regulations. Further, the results of the paper show that leverage effect and changes in foreign exchange ratio can be good candidates for explaining the stylized volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market.