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Expectation-Based Model Explaining Boom and Bust Cycles in Housing Markets (주택유통시장에서 가격거품은 왜 발생하는가?: 소비자의 기대에 기초한 가격 변동주기 모형)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

An Examination of 'Fun' that the Audience Have Watching Reality Audition Programs : Focusing on the Application of the 'Fun Evolving Model' to K-POP STAR(Season 3) (리얼리티 오디션 프로그램 수용자들이 느끼는 '재미(fun)'에 대한 고찰 : K-POP STAR(시즌3)의 재미진화모형 적용을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Young jun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2015
  • A study on the 'FUN' of TV reality audition programs. "Why are the audience so enthusiastic about the survival audition programs?" "What fun do the audition program audience have?" In order to find the answers for such questions, this study applied 'the 4-step fun evolving model' and thereby, categorized audience's fun-seeking behavioral modes, and therewith, examined how such fun-seeking behavioral modes would change by step over time. As a result, it was found that the audition program audience had faithfully followed the 4 fun types (watching, having, doing and becoming), and that their fun-seeking behavioral modes had changed by step over time in SBS "K-POP START" (Season 3) in 2013. Such findings suggest that the audition program fans accommodated 'the fun evolving model.' Their step of 'watching' evolved gradually into the step of 'having' both on-line and off-line (support of participants/malicious or good-will replies, participation in blogs/twitters, photo materials collection activities) and that of 'doing' (application for the jury group, organization of fan club, crazy fan activities, participation in phone voting, etc.), while increasing their fun.

Ecological Health Assessments, Conservation and Management in Korea Using Fish Multi-Metric Model (어류를 이용한 한국의 하천생태계 건강성 평가)

  • An, Kwang-Guk;Lee, Sang-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.86-95
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to describe the development and testing of an initial ecological health assessment model, based on the index of biological integrity (IBI) using fish assemblages, before establishing the final and currently used model for ecological health assessment, conservation and management of freshwater fish in Korea. The initial fish IBI model was developed during 2004~2006 and included 10 metrics, and in 2007 the final IBI 8-metric model was established for application to streams and rivers in four major Korean watersheds. In this paper, we describe how we developed fish sampling methods, determined metric attributes and categorized tolerance guilds and trophic guilds during the development of the multi-metric model. Two of the initial metrics were removed and the initial evaluation categories were reduced from six to four (excellent, good, fair, poor) before establishing the final national fish model. In the development phase, IBI values were compared with chemical parameters (BOD and COD as indicators of organic matter pollution) and physical habitat parameters to identify differences in IBI model values between chemical and physical habitat conditions. These processes undertaken during the development of the IBI model may be helpful in understanding the modifications made and contribute to creating efficient conservation and management strategies for stream environments to be used by limnologists and fish ecologists as well as stream/watershed managers.

The Economic Impact of Contaminated and Noxious Sites : A Meta Analysis (오염-유해시설의 경제적 영향 : 메타분석)

  • Won, Doo Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.165-196
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    • 2008
  • This paper reports a quantitative meta analysis of the economic impacts of localized noxious and contaminated sites. Using either hedonic property value or stated preference methods, economists have studied the effects of contamination or noxious activities, or the benefits realized from their elimination, on real estate prices at more than 40 sites. In support of wise public and private investments in environmental quality, most of these studies aim to inform decision makers about the benefits of remediation and cleanup. Their results vary considerably, but there has been no previous systematic effort to analyze the differences and identify shared insights. This study uses established methods of meta analysis to identify points of agreement and differences in this body of literature. The studies are characterized by the type of site, modeling approach, geographic extent of impacts, data features, and other key factors that underlie their value estimates. The impact estimates are normalized as proportional effects on property values. This study attempts to discover whether the estimated economic impacts of contamination or noxious activity differ according to these characteristics of the studies, and whether anything general can be said about the economic consequences of site contamination and remediation. Bivariate, multivariate, and logit techniques are applied to the data. The results suggest that the property value is the most sensitive to water base contamination, published case studies result in systematically greater environmental value than those in unpublished reports, and real estate markets show responses to environmental condition changes.

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A Study on Determinants of Commercial Land Values in Gwangju City (광주시 상업지 지가의 형성요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.159-171
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    • 1996
  • The aim of this study is which factors affect the commercial land values and how they act upon them through distribution of commercial land values by multiple regression analysis in Gwangju city. The major findings of this study are as follows: (1) The changes of commercial land values distribution in $1989{\sim}1996$, We see that the commercial area of higher land values extends following the main arterial road. This is related to urbanization in urban fringe while the decline of commercial land values occurs in city center with long history of commercial region. This is due to unsuitableness in rapid changes of commercial environment because of fragmented lots, old buildings. traffic congestion etc. (2) The regions where commercial land values greatly rose are the west in constructed the new planning city center of Sangmu-dong. and the south west in which is related to the extension of high density apartment and the location of big discount stores. (3) Through the changes in commercial land values distribution map. and road map, topographical map, we know that commercial land values is related to various factors; namely, distance from CBD, convenient traffic, reputation of commercial district, condition of a road, size of supplementary, a degree of commercial land use etc. (4) From the above related factor, six variables are extracted by operational definition. That is the spatial distance from the city center, the walking distance to a stopping place, the road width, the amount of bus traffic, the amount of pedestrian, the number of the shop. (5) Data of seven variables are collected on the highest values point of each Dong. We applicate multiple regression analysis with commercial land values as a dependent variable, extracted six variables as independent variables. (6) As a result of multiple regression on the determinants of commercial land values, the variables which is greatly related to commercial land values are the amount of pedestrain, the spatial distance from city center. We identify that two variables explain variance of the commercial land values by 65%. (7) In order to make clear about not explained 35%. we carry out analysis of residual. In consequence, we see small estimate in downtown area and large estimate in urban fringe. This feature is due to simple core structure of Gwangju city and limits of this regression model.

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Improvement of Interior Design Major Curricula at Vocational High Schools -Focused on the Comparative Analysis with Interior Design Major at Colleges and Universities- (실업계고등학과 실내디자인 전공 교육과정 개선방안 -대학 동일전공과의 교육과정 비교.분석을 중심으로-)

  • 천진희;오혜경;김대년
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2002
  • This study analyzed the current state of interior design as a major at vocational high schools, colleges, and universities to improve their curricula. The questionnaires of students, teachers, and interior designers were collected and frequency distribution and mean were used to analyze the data. Result showed that the alloted times with major fields were high, but those with classes related to interior design were comparatively low at vocational school. Vocational schools did not seem to supply the systemic and qualified major equation for the students who wanted to engage in interior design fields. Therefore curricula reflecting the demand of designers working for interior design companies and students should be made. Additionally practical education contents based on interior design field and achievement of certification should be developed to vitalize the vocational school.

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High Sensitive Strain Detection of FeCoSiB Amorphous Films (아몰퍼스 FeCoSiB 박막의 고감도 스트레인 검출특성)

  • Shin, Kwang-Ho;Arai, Ken-Ichi;SaGong, Geon
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.22-27
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    • 2000
  • Amorphous FeCoSiB films with high saturation magnetostriction and excellent soft magnetic properties have been studied to evaluate their strain sensitivity. Films were subjected to a strain by bending of their substrates, which caused a change in the magnetic anisotropy of films via magnetoelastic coupling. Films were exhibited a figure of merit $F=({\Delta}{\mu}/{\mu})/{\varepsilon}$ (change in film permeability $\mu$ per unit strain $\varepsilon$) of $1.2{\times}10^5$, which is comparable with that of amorphous ribbons. To make a study of application of magnetostrictive films as strain sensor elements, we have prepared a micro-patterned film by means of the photolithography and ion milling processes. Impedance change in the patterned films, when strain was applied, was measured over the frequency range from 1 MHz to 1 GHz. Reflecting a large value of figure of merit F, a variation of 46% impedance of films was shown at 100 MHz frequency when a strain of $300{\times}10^{-6}$ was applied.

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Characteristics of Grain Size and Organic Matters in the Tidal Flat Sediments of the Suncheon Bay (순천만 갯벌의 입도조성 및 유기물 분포특성)

  • Jang, Sung-Guk;Cheong, Cheong-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.198-205
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the characteristics of the grain size distribution and organic matters to understand the current status of the tidal flat sediment for efficient management of Suncheon Bay. We investigated the characteristics of the surface sediments in the mouth area of the Suncheon Bay at fifteen stations in April and July, 2009. Specific conclusions were as follows. The sediments in the most part of tidal flat was shown as muddy facies(clay and silt contents was more than 90%), whereas in the tidal river affected by water flow from the Dongstream was shown as sandy facies. The analyzed values of the tidal flat sediment were in the range of $1.9{\sim}3.8{\phi}$(mean $2.5{\phi}$) for sorting, and -1.5~3.2(mean -0.3) for skewness, and 1.5~14.1(mean 3.9) for kurtosis. So we knew that the tidal flat sediments in the Suncheon Bay was mainly composed by fine-grained sediment. Erosion was happened in the tidal river, whereas sedimentation was occurred in the tidal flat. The most of organic matters was derived from the Dongstream. Total organic matters shown as ignition loss was 5.75%, COD and $H_2S$ values were lower than the eutrophication level(COD; 20.0 mg/g dry, $H_2S$; 0.2 mg S/g dry). From our research the tidal flat of the Suncheon Bay is relatively fine, but a part of the flat was exceed the environmental standard. So we have to establish effective countermeasures to reduce the organic matters and nutrients derived from stream for environmental preservation of the Suncheon bay and conduct scientifically sustainable monitering for streams flowing into Suncheon Bay and tidal flat.

The nature of practical problem focused Family and Consumer Sciences curriculum (실천적 문제 중심 가정과 교육과정의 이해)

  • Yoo, Tae-Myung
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.4 s.42
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    • pp.193-206
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    • 2006
  • The national level curriculum revision is underway in Korea. A proposed model of family and consumer sciences curriculum was proposed for a public hearing, which was held in December 15, 2005. In the model curriculum, practical problem focused curriculum development approach is partially adopted. However, there is lack of understanding for the practical problem focused curriculum, therefore correct understanding of it is needed. This study tried to promote understanding of the nature of perennial practical problem that FCS deals with and of a conceptual framework of practical problem focused curriculum development. Seven competing topics related with practical problem focused curriculum are discussed for resolving misunderstandings and prejudice on it. From the discussion, it is concluded that practical problem focused curriculum is meeting the needs of students' present and future individual and family life.

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A Bibliographical Study of Tzeam Using the Fish, Vegetable and Etc (찜의 문헌적 고찰( II ) - 어패류.채소류 및 기타를 이용한 찜을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Eun-Sil;Chun, Hee-Jung;Lee, Hyo-Gee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.77-99
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    • 1990
  • In this thesis, according to the kinds of tzeam in the main materials of fish, vegetable and etc was to analysis reference frequency to them the materials, the measuring unit of materials, the terms of cooking by 49 books published in Korea from 1670 to 1987. 1. It was 69 kinds of tzeam in the main materials of fish vegetables and etc. 2. Materials were classified into the main-materials, sub-materials, seasioning and decorations. 3. There were 42 kinds of measuring units, of them 16 kinds were for volume, 16 kinds were for quantity, 2 kinds were for length and the rest measuring units were 8 kinds. 4. There were 22 kinds of cooking terms. The terms of them, 15 kinds were for heating methods, 7 terms of them were for the cutting process.

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