• Title/Summary/Keyword: 왜곡모형비

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A Study on Scenario to establish Coastal Inundation Prediction Map due to Storm Surge (폭풍해일에 의한 해안침수예상도 작성 시나리오 연구)

  • Moon, Seung-Rok;Kang, Tae-Soon;Nam, Soo-Yong;Hwang, Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.492-501
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    • 2007
  • Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and extreme weather have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline retreat. A storm surge is an onshore gush of water associated with a tow pressure weather system, typically in typhoon season. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height and inundation due to the irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon. To provide a new scheme of typhoon damage prediction model, the scenario which changes the central pressure, the maximum wind radius, the track and the proceeding speed by corresponding previous typhoon database, was composed. The virtual typhoon scenario database was constructed with individual scenario simulation and evaluation, in which it extracted the result from the scenario database of information of the hereafter typhoon and information due to climate change. This virtual typhoon scenario database will apply damage prediction information about a typhoon. This study performed construction and analysis of the simulation system with the storm surge/coastal inundation model at Masan coastal areas, and applied method for predicting using the scenario of the storm surge.

Feasibility of 3D Dipole-Dipole Electrical Resistivity Method to a Vein-Type Ore Deposit (국내 맥상광체조사를 위한 3차원 쌍극자-쌍극자 전기비저항 탐사의 적용성 분석)

  • Min, Dong-Joo;Jung, Hyun-Key;Lee, Hyo-Sun;Park, Sam-Gyu;Lee, Ho-Yong
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.268-277
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    • 2009
  • Recently as the interest in the development of domestic ore deposits has increased, we can easily find some studies on exploration geophysics-based ore deposit survey in literature. Geophysical surveys have been applied to the investigation of both metallic and non-metallic ore deposit. For metallic ore-deposit survey, the 2D electrical resistivity method has been popularly used, because metallic mineral deposits are generally more conductive than surrounding media. However, geological structures are 3D rather than 2D structures, which may lead to misinterpretation in 2D inversion section. In this study, 3D effects are examined for several 3D structures such as a width-varying dyke model and a wedge-shaped model. We also investigate the effects of the direction of survey line. Numerical results show that the width-varying dyke model yields some low resistivity zone in the deep part, which is independent of real ore-body location. For the wedge-shaped model, even though the survey line is located apart from the ore body, the 2D inversion section still shows low resistivity zone in the deep part. When the survey line is not perpendicular to the strike of the ore body, the low resistivity zone is slightly broader but shallower than that obtained along the survey line perpendicular to the strike. For the survey lines that have an angle smaller than $45^{\circ}$ with the strike of the ore body, the inversion results are totally distorted. From these results, we conclude that 2-D survey and interpretation can lead to misinterpretation of subsurface structures, which may be linked to economical loss. Eventually, we recommend to apply 3-D rather than 2-D electrical resistivity survey for ore-deposit survey.

Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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Development and Application of Green Infrastructure Planning Framework for Improving Urban Water Cycle: Focused on Yeonje-Gu and Nam-Gu in Busan, Korea (도시물순환 개선을 위한 그린인프라 계획 프레임워크 개발 및 시범적용 - 부산시 연제구 및 남구를 대상으로 -)

  • Kang, JungEun;Lee, MoungJin;Koo, YouSeong;Cho, YeonHee
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.43-73
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    • 2014
  • Cities in Korea have rapidly urbanized and they are not well prepared for natural disasters which have been increased by climate change. In particular, they often struggle with urban flooding. Recently, green infrastructure has been emphasized as a critical strategy for flood mitigation in developed countries due to its capability to infiltrate water into the ground, provide the ability to absorb and store rainfall, and contribute to mitigating floods. However, in Korea, green infrastructure planning only focuses on esthetic functions or accessibility, and does not think how other functions such as flood mitigation, can be effectively realized. Based on this, we address this critical gap by suggesting the new green infrastructure planning framework for improving urban water cycle and maximizing flood mitigation capacity. This framework includes flood vulnerability assessment for identifying flood risk area and deciding suitable locations for green infrastructure. We propose the use of the combination of frequency ratio model and GIS for flood vulnerability assessment. The framework also includes the selection process of green infrastructure practices under local conditions such as geography, flood experience and finance. Finally, we applied this planning framework to the case study area, namely YeonJe-gu an Nam-gu in Busan. We expect this framework will be incorporated into green infrastructure spatial planning to provide effective decision making process regarding location and design of green infrastructure.

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Evaluation of the applicability of Cockle shell and walnut shell in a bioretention facility (Bioretention 내 꼬막 및 호두껍질의 적용성 평가)

  • Jeon, Minsu;Geronimo, F.K.F.;Choi, Hyeseon;Kim, Lee-hyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.203-203
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    • 2019
  • 도시화로 인한 불투수면의 증가는 물순환 왜곡, 비점오염원 발생 및 수생태계 건상성 훼손 등을 야기시키며, 이를 해결하기 위하여 다양한 LID 기법을 적용하고 있다. 일반적으로 LID 내 적용 되는 여재들은 무기성여재로 중량이 크고 미세공극의 부재로 물리화학적 및 생물학적 저감기능이 제한적이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 중량성이 낮은 생물폐자원을 선정하여 LID 시설 적용성평가를 수행하고자 한다. 생물폐자원은 발생량, 경량성 및 용이성을 고려하여 꼬막껍질(CS)과 호두껍질(WS)을 선정하였다. 생물폐자원의 산화부식을 고려하여 무기성 여재인 화산석과 혼합하여 Bioretention 시설에 적용하였으며, 여재 혼합비율에 따라 총 3가지의 Case 로 구성하였다. 식생은 구절초와 꽃댕강나무를 식재하였으며, 여재의 물리적 특성 분석을 위하여 적용 전과 후의 SEM(Scanning Electronic Microscope)을 수행하였다. 모니터링은 도로퇴적물 100g과 물 110L를 제조하여 인공강우유출수를 이용하여 수행하였으며, $0.0003{\sim}0.007m^3/sec$의 유속으로 주입하였다. 시설의 유입 및 유출부에서 유량 측정 및 수질 시료를 채취하였으며, 채취된 시료는 수질오염공정 시험법에 준하여 입자상 물질, 유기물, 영양물질 및 중금속 등을 분석하였다. Bioretention 시설의 모니터링 결과를 이용하여 물수지 및 TSS 저감 효율을 산정하였으며. 물수지 분석결과 시설의 저류율은 Case 1(soil) > Case 3(WS+RV) > Case 2(CS+RV) 순으로 나타났다. 시설 내 공극률이 가장 낮았던 Case 1에서 저류율이 약 55%로 가장 높게 것으로 분석되었다. Case 3(WS+RV)은 Case 2(WS+RV)와 시설 내 공극률이 유사함에도 불구하고 저류율이 약 10% 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 오염물질 저감효율 분석 결과, TSS와 TP의 제거효율은 모든 Case에서 약 75% 이상으로 높게 나타났으며, COD의 경우 모래를 적용한 Case 1에 비해 생물폐자원인 꼬막껍질과 호두껍질을 적용한 Case에서 약 1.3배 이상 높게 나타났다. 호두껍질과 꼬막껍질의 SEM 분석 결과 표면에 다공성이 형성되어 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 이는 여과 및 저류기작으로 인한 물순환 효과증대와 다공성과 돌기사이로 인한 입자상의 물질 여과 및 흡착으로 인하여 오염물질의 제거효율이 증대 된 것으로 평가된다. LID시설 내 생물폐자원과 무기성여재를 적절히 배합하여 복합여재로 조성할 경우 침하현상을 방지할 뿐만 아니라 저류 및 침투기능 향상과 미생물의 서식환경을 제공하기에 물순환 회복 및 비점오염물질 저감에 기여할 것으로 평가된다.

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Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics of Regional Climate Model for Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources (기후변화에 따른 수자원 영향 평가를 위한 Regional Climate Model 강수 계열의 특성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Bo-Kyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.525-533
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    • 2008
  • Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to study impact of climate change on water resources for hydrologic models as inputs. Recently, regional circulation models (RCMs) have been used widely for climate change study, but the RCMs have been rarely used in the climate change impacts on water resources in Korea. Therefore, this study is intended to use a set of climate scenarios derived by RegCM3 RCM ($27km{\times}27km$), which is operated by Korea Meteorological Administration. To begin with, the RCM precipitation data surrounding major rainfall stations are extracted to assess validation of the scenarios in terms of reproducing low frequency behavior. A comprehensive comparison between observation and precipitation scenario is performed through statistical analysis, wavelet transform analysis and EOF analysis. Overall analysis confirmed that the precipitation data driven by RegCM3 shows capabilities in simulating hydrological low frequency behavior and reproducing spatio-temporal patterns. However, it is found that spatio-temporal patterns are slightly biased and amplitudes (variances) from the RCMs precipitation tend to be lower than the observations. Therefore, a bias correction scheme to correct the systematic bias needs to be considered in case the RCMs are applied to water resources assessment under climate change.

The Comparison of Existing Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method in Korea (국내 기존 합성단위도 방법의 비교)

  • Jeong, Seong-Won;Mun, Jang-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.659-672
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    • 2001
  • Generally, design flood for a hydraulic structure is estimated using statistical analysis of runoff data. However, due to the lack of runoff data, it is difficult that the statistical method is applied for estimation of design flood. In this case, the synthetic unit hydrograph method is used generally and the models such as NYMO method, Snyder method, SCS method, and HYMO method have been widely used in Korea. In this study, these methods and KICT method, which is developed in year 2000, are compared and analyzed in 10 study areas. Firstly, peak flow and peak time of representative unit hydrograph and synthetic unit hydrograph in study area are compared, and secondly, the shape of unit hydrograph is compared using a root mean square error(RMSE). In Nakayasu method developed in Japan, synthetic unit hydrograph is very different from peak flow, peak time, and the shape of representative unit hydrograph, and KICT method(2000) is superior to others. Also, KICT method(2000) is superior to others in the aspects of using hydrologic and topographical data. Therefore, Nakayasu method is not a proper in hydrological practice. Moreover, it is considered that KICT model is a better method for the estimation of design flood. However, if other model, i.e. SCS method, Nakayasu method, and HYMO method, is used, parameters or regression equations must be adjusted by analysis of real data in Korea.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Development of a Small Gamma Camera Using NaI(T1)-Position Sensitive Photomultiplier Tube for Breast Imaging (NaI (T1) 섬광결정과 위치민감형 광전자증배관을 이용한 유방암 진단용 소형 감마카메라 개발)

  • Kim, Jong-Ho;Choi, Yong;Kwon, Hong-Seong;Kim, Hee-Joung;Kim, Sang-Eun;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Lee, Kyung-Han;Kim, Moon-Hae;Joo, Koan-Sik;Kim, Byuug-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: The conventional gamma camera is not ideal for scintimammography because of its large detector size (${\sim}500mm$ in width) causing high cost and low image quality. We are developing a small gamma camera dedicated for breast imaging. Materials and Methods: The small gamma camera system consists of a NaI (T1) crystal ($60 mm{\times}60 mm{\times}6 mm$) coupled with a Hamamatsu R3941 Position Sensitive Photomultiplier Tube (PSPMT), a resister chain circuit, preamplifiers, nuclear instrument modules, an analog to digital converter and a personal computer for control and display. The PSPMT was read out using a standard resistive charge division which multiplexes the 34 cross wire anode channels into 4 signals ($X^+,\;X^-,\;Y^+,\;Y^-$). Those signals were individually amplified by four preamplifiers and then, shaped and amplified by amplifiers. The signals were discriminated ana digitized via triggering signal and used to localize the position of an event by applying the Anger logic. Results: The intrinsic sensitivity of the system was approximately 8,000 counts/sec/${\mu}Ci$. High quality flood and hole mask images were obtained. Breast phantom containing $2{\sim}7 mm$ diameter spheres was successfully imaged with a parallel hole collimator The image displayed accurate size and activity distribution over the imaging field of view Conclusion: We have succesfully developed a small gamma camera using NaI(T1)-PSPMT and nuclear Instrument modules. The small gamma camera developed in this study might improve the diagnostic accuracy of scintimammography by optimally imaging the breast.

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An Assessment of Post-Injection Transmission Measurement for Attenuation Correction With Rotating Pin Sources in Positron Emission Tomography (양전자방출단층촬영(PET)에서 회전 핀선원과 투과 및 방출 동시 영상 방법을 이용한 감쇠보정 방법 특성에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, J.R.;Choi, Y.;Lee, K.H.;Kim, S.E.;Chi, D.Y.;Shin, S.A.;Kim, B.T.
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 1995
  • Attenuation correction is important in producing quantitative positron emission tomography (PET) images. Conventionally, photon attenuation effects are corrected using transmission measurements performed before tracer administration. The pre-injection transmission measurement approach may require a time delay between transmission and emission scans for the tracer studies requiring a long uptake period, about 45 minutes for F-18 deoxyglucose study. The time delay will limit patient throughput and increase the likelihood of patient motion. A technique lot performing simultaneous transmission and emission scans (T+E method) after the tracer injection has been validated. The T+E method substracts the emission counts contaminating the transmission measurements to produce accurate attenuation correction coefficients. This method has been evaluated in experiments using a cylindrical phantom filled with background water (5750 cc) containing $0.4{\mu}Ci/cc$ of F-18 fluoride ion and one insert cylinder (276 cc) containing $4.3{\mu}Ci/cc$. GE $Advance^{TM}$ PET scanner and Ge-68 rotating pin sources for transmission scanning were used for this investigation. Post-injection transmission scan and emission scan were peformed alternatively over time. The error in emission images corrected using post-infection transmission scan to emission images corrected transmission scan was 2.6% at the concentration of $1.0{\mu}Ci/cc$. No obvious differences in image quality and noise were apparent between the two images. The attenuation correction can be accomplished with post-injection transmission measurement using rotating pin sources and this method can significantly shorten the time between transmission and omission scans and thereby reduce the likelihood of patient motion and increase scanning throughput in PET.

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