• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차추정

Search Result 3,130, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Use of Real-Time PCR and Internal Standard Addition Method for Identifying Mixed Ratio of Chicken Meat in Sausages (Real-Time PCR과 Internal Standard Addition법을 이용한 돼지고기 소시지에 혼합된 닭고기의 정량)

  • Lee, Namrye;Joo, Jae-Young;Yeo, Yong-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.46 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1097-1105
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study examined how much chicken meat was in sausage made with pork. Both real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and internal standard addition were used. Fifty ng of chicken DNA was added to the sausages as an internal standard. The addition of standard DNA increased the amplification efficiency of PCR and confirmed the possibility of quantitative analysis. A QIAamp DNA Micro Kit was used to improve the DNA recovery and amplification efficiency. The density of template DNA and primer were suitable for $3.0{\sim}5.0{\mu}L$ and $0.5{\mu}L$, respectively. Each DNA of pig and chicken was diluted in 10-fold from steps 50 ng to 0.05 ng. The detection limit of both pig and chicken meat was more than 0.05 ng and the correlation coefficient of the standard curve was at least 0.98. The result of the quantitative analysis after heat treatment of 3 samples of pigs and chickens mixed at 70:30 showed a 5.7% difference (64.3:35.7) between the expected value and measured value. The quantitative value was changed by affecting the DNA according to the heat treatment ($70^{\circ}C$, 10 min). An analysis of the pork and chicken content in sausages showed that it was difficult to detect chicken meat and the quantitative value of DNA according to the Ct value was very low. On the other hand, when adding standard material (50 ng of chicken DNA) to the sausages, the Ct value decreased gradually with increasing chicken mixing ratio. Thus, the mixing ratio of chicken in sausages could be estimated.

Parameterization and Application of a Forest Landscape Model by Using National Forest Inventory and Long Term Ecological Research Data (국가산림자원조사와 장기생태연구 자료를 활용한 산림경관모형의 모수화 및 적용성 평가)

  • Cho, Wonhee;Lim, Wontaek;Kim, Eun-Sook;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Ko, Dongwook W.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.215-231
    • /
    • 2020
  • Forest landscape models (FLMs) can be used to investigate the complex interactions of various ecological processes and patterns, which makes them useful tools to evaluate how environmental and anthropogenic variables can influence forest ecosystems. However, due to the large spatio-temporal scales in FLMs studies, parameterization and validation can be extremely challenging when applying to new study areas. To address this issue, we focused on the parameterization and application of a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to Mt. Gyebang, South Korea, with the use of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and long-term ecological research (LTER) site data. In this study, we present the followings for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II: 1) species-specific and spatial parameters estimation for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II, 2) calibration, and 3) application and validation for Mt. Gyebang. For the biomass succession extension, we selected 14 tree species, and parameterized ecoregion map, initial community map, species growth characteristics. We produced ecoregion map using elevation, aspect, and topographic wetness index based on digital elevation model. Initial community map was produced based on NFI and sub-alpine survey data. Tree species growth parameters, such as aboveground net primary production and maximum aboveground biomass, were estimated from PnET-II model based on species physiological factors and environmental variables. Literature data were used to estimate species physiological factors, such as FolN, SLWmax, HalfSat, growing temperature, and shade tolerance. For calibration and validation purposes, we compared species-specific aboveground biomass of model outputs and NFI and sub-alpine survey data and calculated coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The final model performed very well, with 0. 98 R2 and 8. 9 RMSE. This study can serve as a foundation for the use of FLMs to other applications such as comparing alternative forest management scenarios and natural disturbance effects.

The Cross-Sectional Characteristic and Spring-Neap Variation of Residual Current and Net Volume Transport at the Yeomha Channel (경기만 염하수로에서의 잔차류 및 수송량의 대조-소조 변동과 단면 특성)

  • Lee, Dong Hwan;Yoon, Byung Il;Woo, Seung-Buhm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.5
    • /
    • pp.217-227
    • /
    • 2017
  • The object of this study is to estimate the net volume transport and the residual flow that changed by space and time at southern part of Yeomha channel, Gyeonggi Bay. The cross-section observation was conducted at the mid-part (Line2) and the southern end (Line1) of Yeomha channel for 13 hours during neap and spring-tides, respectively. The Lagrange flux is calculated as the sum of Eulerian flux and Stokes drift, and the residual flow is calculated by using least square method. It is necessary to unify the spatial area of the observed cross-section and average time during the tidal cycle. In order to unify the cross-sectional area containing such a large vertical tidal variation, it was necessary to convert into sigma coordinate system by horizontally and vertically for every hour. The converted sigma coordinate system is estimated to be 3~5% error when compared with the z-level coordinate system which shows that there is no problem for analyzing the data. As a result, the cross-sectional residual flow shows a southward flow pattern in both spring and neap tides at Line2, and also have characteristic of the spatial residual flow fluctuation: it northwards in the main line direction and southwards at the end of both side of the waterway. It was confirmed that the residual flow characteristics at Line2 were changed by the net pressure due to the sea level difference. The analysis of the net volume transport showed that it tends to southwards at $576m^3s^{-1}$, $67m^3s^{-1}$ in each spring tide and neap tide at Line2. On the other hand, in the control Line1, it has tendency to northwards at $359m^3s^{-1}$ and $248m^3s^{-1}$. Based on the difference between the two observation lines, it is estimated that net volume transport will be out flow about $935m^3s^{-1}$ at spring tide stage and about $315m^3s^{-1}$ at neap tide stage as the intertidal zone between Yeongjong Island and Ganghwa Island. In other words, the difference of pressure gradient and Stokes drift during spring and neap tide is main causes of variation for residual current and net volume transport.

The Study on Geology and Volcanism in Jeju Island (II): Petrochemistry and $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ Absolute Ages of the Volcanic Rocks in Gapado-Marado, Jeju Island (제주도의 지질과 화산활동에 관한 연구 (II): 가파도와 마라도 화산암류의 암석화학 및 $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ 절대연대)

  • Koh, Gi-Won;Park, Jun-Beom
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-66
    • /
    • 2010
  • We report petrologic characteristics including $^{40}Ar-^{39}Ar$ absolute ages of the subsurface lavas recovered from borehole cores in two islets, Marado and Gapado, off the southwestern coast of Jeju in southernmost Korea and discuss on the volcanism in the region. The lavas in Gapado are apparently divided into one unit with bright colored, aphanitic texture and sheet jointed, and another unit with dark colored and massive. The outcrops often show differentially weathered pattern due to textural difference. While, the lavas in Marado have vesicular and glomerporphyric texture, even though each lava flow unit in Marado has slight unique texture with variation of vesicularity and phenocrysts. The chemical composition of rock core samples from Gapa borehole and Mara borehole shows that the lavas from Gapado and Marado are classified into basaltic trachyandesite($SiO_2$ 52.6-53.6 wt%, $Na_2O+K_2O$ 7.3-7.5 wt%) and tholeiitic andesite($SiO_2$ 51.7-52.8 wt%, $Na_2O+K_2O$ 3.6-4.1 wt%), respectively. The measured $^{40}Ar-^{39}Ar$ plateau ages range from $824{\pm}32\;Ka$(MSL -69 m) to $758{\pm}\;Ka$(MSL 19 m) for core samples of Gapa borehole and $259{\pm}168\;Ka$(MSL -26 m) for a core sample of Mara borehole, respectively. The absolute age of Gapado basaltic trachyandesite is well correlated with that of Sanbangsan trachyte(Won et al., 1986). Meanwhile, the age of a sample in Marado has $259{\pm}168\;Ka$(MSL -26 m) with poor plateau age formation and high error range. We report the data in caution but the rock composition and absolute age of Marado tholeiitic andesite are relatively correlated with those of lava units from Duksu and Sangmo-2 boreholes, indicating the volcanism during 260-150 Ka. On the basis of interpretation of occurrences of exposed and subsurface volcanic rocks of the study area, stratigraphic relationship with adjacent borehole cores and the bathymetry chart of surrounding area, it indicates that the lavas in Gapado were formed around 800 Ka during relatively early stage of volcanic activity in Jeju Island. Meanwhile, Marado may have originated around 260-150 Ka during relatively young stage of volcanism in Jeju Island. It is inferred that the volcanisms have originated in land and these islets were individual ancient volcanoes. The apparent topography has been re-shaped by tidal erosion due to transgression.

The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.169-206
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

  • PDF

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.17-39
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

  • PDF

The Study about Developing More Rational Valuation Model to the Early Stage Companies (초기기업에 대한 정량적 가치평가 모델 구축에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kang, Sang-Wook;Yang, Young-Seok;Yang, Soo-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.15-24
    • /
    • 2017
  • The major goal of this paper falls on developing new rational valuation model, to help companies and investors in the early stage of growth as to preparing and negotiating valuation of investment, by applying new reasonable discount indexes of calculating Discount Cash Flow in valuation of the start-up which has been recognized the critical fatal flaws of DCF with them. There are three specific studies done in this paper. First, this paper found the solid and viable bases of rational discount indexes as to applying DCF in valuing companies in the early growth stage with reviewing the previous studies including Berkus method, Scorecard Method, and Risk factor Summation method classified the most effective tools of valuing pre-revenue generating companies. Second, this paper quoted and analyzed the previous models and studies, so called, 'DCF-Prime' of applying DCF method as to value companies in the early growth stage by taking all risk factors innate to the companies in the early growth stage as the discount rate Beta coefficient. Third, this paper propose more viable and solid valuation models, so called, 'DCF-Plus'of combing all validated valuation factors in Berkus, Scorecard, and Risk Factor Summation methods into applying separate discount bracket after DCF Valuation over the companies in the early growth stage instead of taking them as the factors of discount rate, beta coefficient, like the previous model of DCF-Prime. DCF-Plus mainly developed in this paper will not only provide more rational valuation bases as to investment negotiation between companies and investors in the early growth stage, but also providing more accountable guidelines to companies in the early growth as to prepare investment raising and accelerating their company's value by themselves.

  • PDF

Prediction of Correct Answer Rate and Identification of Significant Factors for CSAT English Test Based on Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 대학수학능력시험 영어영역 정답률 예측 및 주요 요인 분석)

  • Park, Hee Jin;Jang, Kyoung Ye;Lee, Youn Ho;Kim, Woo Je;Kang, Pil Sung
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
    • /
    • v.4 no.11
    • /
    • pp.509-520
    • /
    • 2015
  • College Scholastic Ability Test(CSAT) is a primary test to evaluate the study achievement of high-school students and used by most universities for admission decision in South Korea. Because its level of difficulty is a significant issue to both students and universities, the government makes a huge effort to have a consistent difficulty level every year. However, the actual levels of difficulty have significantly fluctuated, which causes many problems with university admission. In this paper, we build two types of data-driven prediction models to predict correct answer rate and to identify significant factors for CSAT English test through accumulated test data of CSAT, unlike traditional methods depending on experts' judgments. Initially, we derive candidate question-specific factors that can influence the correct answer rate, such as the position, EBS-relation, readability, from the annual CSAT practices and CSAT for 10 years. In addition, we drive context-specific factors by employing topic modeling which identify the underlying topics over the text. Then, the correct answer rate is predicted by multiple linear regression and level of difficulty is predicted by classification tree. The experimental results show that 90% of accuracy can be achieved by the level of difficulty (difficult/easy) classification model, whereas the error rate for correct answer rate is below 16%. Points and problem category are found to be critical to predict the correct answer rate. In addition, the correct answer rate is also influenced by some of the topics discovered by topic modeling. Based on our study, it will be possible to predict the range of expected correct answer rate for both question-level and entire test-level, which will help CSAT examiners to control the level of difficulties.

Productivity and Density Control of Stands of Japanese Larch (일본잎갈나무 임분(林分)의 생산력(生產力)과 밀도관리(密度管理)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-30
    • /
    • 1977
  • Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) is one of main timber species in Korea that could find much plantation and growing stands on all over the country. It is thought to be in meaningful that a guiding diagram for density control of Japanese larch stands is made to estimate easily the density conditions in the quantitaive, ecological and economic viewpoint. Sample plots for this study are selected from the stands that have not been thinned in recent years, and mean height, mean diameter, dominant height, tree numbers per hectare and stem volume of mean tree are calculated from the each sample plots among total 165 plots In this study, especially, the theory of slenderness of mean tree are applied, that have been identified through the results of the spacing trial. Relative growth characteristics of this species are calculated from the general logistic curve and its formula is $Y=ax^b$. Relatwion between the measured items are found out as follows: 1. Relation between the mean height and tree numbers per hectare by slender class is showing the high correlation as table 1 and fig. 2, and between mean diameter and tree numbers per hectare is also high correlation as table 1 and fig 3. 2. The stem volume can be correctly estimated from height in case that slender class may be known, as showing in table 3 and fig. 4. 3. The stem volume can be more correctly estimated from the relation with $D^2H$ as formula, $Log_e\;V=0.9569\;Log_eD^2H-9.8431$, and relation between stem volume of single tree or volume per hectare and tree numbers per hectare are as following formulas: $Log_e$ stem volume=9.5026-1.6800 $Log_e$ tree numbers per hectare $Log_e$ stem volume per hectare=9.4911-0.6784 $Log_e$ tree numbers per hectare. Stem volume of mean tree, tree numbers per hectare and stem volume per hectare correspond to the mean tree height are calculated to slender class as table 5, 6, 7. Through the above steps, the diagram for density control of Japanese larch are produced as fig. 9. It is thought that this diagram could be applied to control the density of Japanese larch stands.

  • PDF

Specific Absorption Coefficients for the Chlorophyll and Suspended Sediment in the Yellow and Mediterranean Sea (황해와 지중해에서의 클로로필 및 부유입자의 비흡광계수 연구)

  • 안유환;문정언
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.353-365
    • /
    • 1998
  • Light absorption coefficient per unit mass of particles, i.e., specific absorption coefficient, is important as one of the main parameters in developing algorithms for ocean color remote sensing. Specific absorption coefficient of chlorophyll ($a^*_{ph}$) and suspended sediment ($a^*_{ss}$) were analyzed with a spectrophotometer using the "wet filter technique" and "Kishino method" for the seawater collected in the Yellow and Mediterranean Sea. An improved data-recovery method for the filter technique was also developed using spectrum slopes. This method recovered the baselines of spectrum that were often altered in the original methods. High $a^*_{ph}({lambda})$ values in the oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea and low values in the Yellow Sea were observed, ranging 0.01 to 0.12 $m^2$/mg at the chlorophyll maximum absorption wavelength of 440 nm. The empirical relationship between $a^*_{ph}$(440nm) and chlorophyll concentrations () was found to fit a power function ($a^*_{ph}$=0.039 $^{-0.369}$), which was similar to Bricaud et al. (1995). Absorption specific coefficients for suspended sediment ($a^*_{ss}$) did not show any relationship with concentrations of suspended sediment. However, an average value of $a^*_{ss}$ ranging 0.005 - 0.08 $m^2$/g at 440nm, was comparable to the specific absorption coefficient of soil (loess) measured by Ahn (1990). The morepronounced variability of $a^*_{ss}$ than $a^*_{ph}$ was determined from the variable mixing ratio values between particulate organic matter and mineral. It can also be explained by a wide size-distribution range for SS which were determined by their specific gravity, bottom state, depth and agitation of water mass by wind in the sea surface.