• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모형

Search Result 6,113, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Shipping Industry Support Plan based on Research of Factors Affecting on the Freight Rate of Bulk Carriers by Sizes (부정기선 운임변동성 영향 요인 분석에 따른 우리나라 해운정책 지원 방안)

  • Cheon, Min-Soo;Mun, Ae-ri;Kim, Seog-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.17-30
    • /
    • 2020
  • In the shipping industry, it is essential to engage in the preemptive prediction of freight rate volatility through market monitoring. Considering that freight rates have already started to fall, the loss of shipping companies will soon be uncontrollable. Therefore, in this study, factors affecting the freight rates of bulk carriers, which have relatively large freight rate volatility as compared to container freight rates, were quantified and analyzed. In doing so, we intended to contribute to future shipping market monitoring. We performed an analysis using a vector error correction model and estimated the influence of six independent variables on the charter rates of bulk carriers by Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. The six independent variables included the bulk carrier fleet volume, iron ore traffic volume, ribo interest rate, bunker oil price, and Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The dependent variables were handy size (32,000 DWT) spot charter rates, Supramax 6 T/C average charter rates, Pana Max (75,000 DWT) spot charter, and Cape Size (170,000 DWT) spot charter. The study examined charter rates by size of bulk carriers, which was different from studies on existing specific types of ships or fares in oil tankers and chemical carriers other than bulk carriers. Findings revealed that influencing factors differed for each ship size. The Libo interest rate had a significant effect on all four ship types, and the iron ore traffic volume had a significant effect on three ship types. The Ribo rate showed a negative (-) relationship with Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. Iron ore traffic influenced three types of linearity, except for Panamax. The size of shipping companies differed depending on their characteristics. These findings are expected to contribute to the establishment of a management strategy for shipping companies by analyzing the factors influencing changes in the freight rates of charterers, which have a profound effect on the management performance of shipping companies.

Seismic response characteristics of the hypothetical subsea tunnel in the fault zone with various material properties (다양한 물성의 단층대를 통과하는 가상해저터널의 지진 시 응답 특성)

  • Jang, Dong In;Kwak, Chang-Won;Park, Inn-Joon;Kim, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1061-1071
    • /
    • 2018
  • A subsea tunnel, being a super-sized underground structure must ensure safety at the time of earthquake, as well as at ordinary times. At the time of earthquake, in particular, of a subsea tunnel, a variety of response behaviors are induced owing to relative rigidity to the surrounding ground, or difference of displacement, so that the behavior characteristics can be hardly anticipated. The investigation aims to understand the behavior characteristics switched by earthquake of an imaginary subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone having different physical properties from those of the surrounding ground. In order to achieve the aim, dynamic response behaviors of a subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone were observed by means of indoor experiments. For the sake of improved earthquake resistance, a shape of subsea tunnel to which flexible segments have been applied was considered. Afterward, it is believed that a D/B can be established through 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation of various grounds, on the basis of verified results from the experiments and interpretations under various conditions. The present investigation performed 1 g shaking table test in order to verify the result of 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation. A model considering the similitude (1:100) of a scale-down model test was manufactured, and tests for three (3) Cases were carried out. Incident seismic wave was introduced by artificial seismic wave having both long-period and short-period earthquake properties in the horizontal direction which is rectangular to the processing direction of the tunnel, so that a fault zone was modeled. For numerical analysis, elastic modulus of the fault zone was assumed 1/5 value of the modulus of individual grounds surround the tunnel, in order to simulate a fault zone. Resultantly, reduced acceleration was confirmed with increase of physical properties of the fault zone, and the result from the shaking table test showed the same tendency as the result from 3-dimensional interpretation.

Improvement of Nitrification Efficiency by Activated Nitrifying Bacteria Injection at Low Temperature (활성화된 질산화균 주입에 의한 저온 질산화효율 향상)

  • Lim, Dongil;Kim, Younghee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.473-483
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this study, we have developed a lab scale bioreactor to identify the characteristics of nitrification reaction according to operation condition (temperature, inhibitor (as Cl), activated nitrifying bacteria (ANB). etc) to improve nitrification efficiency at low temperature. Recovery rate of nitrification took about 4 days to reach the normal level by injected ANB after inhibition shock of CI injection at $20^{\circ}C$, when measured the concentration of $NO_2{^-}-N+NO_3{^-}-N$ in the effluent. In the case of $10^{\circ}C$, recovery of nitrification rate took about 4 days to reach the level of half to the normal level and 7 days for complete recovery which took 3 days more than those at $20^{\circ}C$. At $10^{\circ}C$ considering the winter season, the specific nitrification rate(SNR) of the from 1 day to 6 days after injected ANB according to its operation condition increased from 0.029 to 0.767 mgN/gSS/hr. The simulated SNR for the 8th day after the injected ANB at $10^{\circ}C$ was 0.840, 3.625 mgN/gSS/hr, respectively as linear function and exponential function, expecting to exceed level of 2.592 mgN/gSS/hr at normal condition. It was confirmed that injection of ANB during low temperature operation has many effects for improving nitrification efficiency through this study. In future studies, if further studies are carried out the determination of ANB injection and the design of efficient ANB reactor considering the changes of operating characteristics by site, it will contribute to the improvement of nitrification efficiency in winter season.

Conditional Generative Adversarial Network based Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System (Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(CGAN) 기반 협업 필터링 추천 시스템)

  • Kang, Soyi;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.157-173
    • /
    • 2021
  • With the development of information technology, the amount of available information increases daily. However, having access to so much information makes it difficult for users to easily find the information they seek. Users want a visualized system that reduces information retrieval and learning time, saving them from personally reading and judging all available information. As a result, recommendation systems are an increasingly important technologies that are essential to the business. Collaborative filtering is used in various fields with excellent performance because recommendations are made based on similar user interests and preferences. However, limitations do exist. Sparsity occurs when user-item preference information is insufficient, and is the main limitation of collaborative filtering. The evaluation value of the user item matrix may be distorted by the data depending on the popularity of the product, or there may be new users who have not yet evaluated the value. The lack of historical data to identify consumer preferences is referred to as data sparsity, and various methods have been studied to address these problems. However, most attempts to solve the sparsity problem are not optimal because they can only be applied when additional data such as users' personal information, social networks, or characteristics of items are included. Another problem is that real-world score data are mostly biased to high scores, resulting in severe imbalances. One cause of this imbalance distribution is the purchasing bias, in which only users with high product ratings purchase products, so those with low ratings are less likely to purchase products and thus do not leave negative product reviews. Due to these characteristics, unlike most users' actual preferences, reviews by users who purchase products are more likely to be positive. Therefore, the actual rating data is over-learned in many classes with high incidence due to its biased characteristics, distorting the market. Applying collaborative filtering to these imbalanced data leads to poor recommendation performance due to excessive learning of biased classes. Traditional oversampling techniques to address this problem are likely to cause overfitting because they repeat the same data, which acts as noise in learning, reducing recommendation performance. In addition, pre-processing methods for most existing data imbalance problems are designed and used for binary classes. Binary class imbalance techniques are difficult to apply to multi-class problems because they cannot model multi-class problems, such as objects at cross-class boundaries or objects overlapping multiple classes. To solve this problem, research has been conducted to convert and apply multi-class problems to binary class problems. However, simplification of multi-class problems can cause potential classification errors when combined with the results of classifiers learned from other sub-problems, resulting in loss of important information about relationships beyond the selected items. Therefore, it is necessary to develop more effective methods to address multi-class imbalance problems. We propose a collaborative filtering model using CGAN to generate realistic virtual data to populate the empty user-item matrix. Conditional vector y identify distributions for minority classes and generate data reflecting their characteristics. Collaborative filtering then maximizes the performance of the recommendation system via hyperparameter tuning. This process should improve the accuracy of the model by addressing the sparsity problem of collaborative filtering implementations while mitigating data imbalances arising from real data. Our model has superior recommendation performance over existing oversampling techniques and existing real-world data with data sparsity. SMOTE, Borderline SMOTE, SVM-SMOTE, ADASYN, and GAN were used as comparative models and we demonstrate the highest prediction accuracy on the RMSE and MAE evaluation scales. Through this study, oversampling based on deep learning will be able to further refine the performance of recommendation systems using actual data and be used to build business recommendation systems.

Analysis of the Longitudinal Relationship between Recovery and Adaptation Factors According to Types of School Violence Exposure in Youth: Focusing on Resilience and Social Support (청소년의 학교폭력노출 유형에 따른 회복과 적응을 위한 요인 간의 종단적 관계 분석: 사회적지지와 회복탄력성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dongil;lee, hye eun;Keum, ChangMin;Park, Altteuri;Oh, Jiwon
    • (The) Korean Journal of Educational Psychology
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.99-130
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support of school violence exposure types including school bullying, victimization, and dual experience. The study used data obtained from the third year (2012) of the Seoul Education Longitudinal Study of 1,137 elementary school students in grade 6 who reported experiencing school violence. The results of the autoregressive cross-lagged model are as follows. First, as a result of measuring the self-regression coefficients of resilience and social support of the youth exposed to school violence at 3 time points (2012, 2014, and 2016), it was found for all types of violence that resilience and social support at the previous time point showed a signigicant positive effect on the same variable at the next time point. Second, in the case of the cross-lagged effects of resilience and social support, the effect of previous social support on resilience at the next time point was statistically significant for the victimization group, but not for the bullying or dual experience groups. Third, considering the opposite path from resilience to social support, resilience at the previous time point had a significant influence on the social support at the next time point for both the bullying and victimization groups. This result is new and can be complementary to the cross-sectional studies so far using a longitudinal view. The results of this study suggest that the bullying and victimized students who are relatively more resilient are less likely to perceive social support than those who are not resilient. Finally, we discuss the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support, the limitations of this study, and implications for future research.

Modeling of Vegetation Phenology Using MODIS and ASOS Data (MODIS와 ASOS 자료를 이용한 식물계절 모델링)

  • Kim, Geunah;Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Choi, Soyeon;Park, Ganghyun;Chun, Junghwa;Jang, Keunchang;Won, Myoungsoo;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.38 no.5_1
    • /
    • pp.627-646
    • /
    • 2022
  • Recently, the seriousness of climate change-related problems caused by global warming is growing, and the average temperature is also rising. As a result, it is affecting the environment in which various temperature-sensitive creatures and creatures live, and changes in the ecosystem are also being detected. Seasons are one of the important factors influencing the types, distribution, and growth characteristics of creatures living in the area. Among the most popular and easily recognized plant seasonal phenomena among the indicators of the climate change impact evaluation, the blooming day of flower and the peak day of autumn leaves were modeled. The types of plants used in the modeling were forsythia and cherry trees, which can be seen as representative plants of spring, and maple and ginkgo, which can be seen as representative plants of autumn. Weather data used to perform modeling were temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation observed through the ASOS Observatory of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As satellite data, MODIS NDVI was used for modeling, and it has a correlation coefficient of about -0.2 for the flowering date and 0.3 for the autumn leaves peak date. As the model used, the model was established using multiple regression models, which are linear models, and Random Forest, which are nonlinear models. In addition, the predicted values estimated by each model were expressed as isopleth maps using spatial interpolation techniques to express the trend of plant seasonal changes from 2003 to 2020. It is believed that using NDVI with high spatio-temporal resolution in the future will increase the accuracy of plant phenology modeling.

High-Risk Area for Human Infection with Avian Influenza Based on Novel Risk Assessment Matrix (위험 매트릭스(Risk Matrix)를 활용한 조류인플루엔자 인체감염증 위험지역 평가)

  • Sung-dae Park;Dae-sung Yoo
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
    • /
    • v.50 no.1
    • /
    • pp.41-50
    • /
    • 2023
  • Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become the next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection with AI. Thus, we developed the risk assessment matrix for a high-risk area of human infection with AI in South Korea based on the notion that risk is the multiplication of hazards with vulnerability. This matrix consisted of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry farms and the number of poultry-associated production facilities assumed as hazards of avian influenza and vulnerability, respectively. The average number of HPAI in poultry farms at the 229-municipal level as the hazard axis of the matrix was predicted using a negative binomial regression with nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 to 2018. The two components of the matrix were classified into five groups using the K-means clustering algorithm and multiplied, consequently producing the area-specific risk level of human infection. As a result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, and Namwon-si were categorized as high-risk areas for human infection with AI. These findings would contribute to designing the policies for human infection to minimize socio-economic damages.

A Study on the Overall Economic Risks of a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Nuclear Power Plant Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 이용한 원전사고의 종합적인 경제적 리스크 평가)

  • Jang, Han-Ki;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-134
    • /
    • 2008
  • Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

Implementation Strategy of Global Framework for Climate Service through Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology for Agriculture and Food Security Sector (선도적 농림기상 국제협력을 통한 농업과 식량안보분야 전지구기후 서비스체계 구축 전략)

  • Lee, Byong-Lyol;Rossi, Federica;Motha, Raymond;Stefanski, Robert
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.109-117
    • /
    • 2013
  • The Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) will guide the development of climate services that link science-based climate information and predictions with climate-risk management and adaptation to climate change. GFCS structure is made up of 5 pillars; Observations/Monitoring (OBS), Research/ Modeling/ Prediction (RES), Climate Services Information System (CSIS) and User Interface Platform (UIP) which are all supplemented with Capacity Development (CD). Corresponding to each GFCS pillar, the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) has been proposing "Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology" (GIAM) in order to facilitate GFCS implementation scheme from the perspective of AgroMeteorology - Global AgroMeteorological Outlook System (GAMOS) for OBS, Global AgroMeteorological Pilot Projects (GAMPP) for RES, Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS) for UIP/RES, WAMIS next phase for CSIS/UIP, and Global Centers of Research and Excellence in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) for CD, through which next generation experts will be brought up as virtuous cycle for human resource procurements. The World AgroMeteorological Information Service (WAMIS) is a dedicated web server in which agrometeorological bulletins and advisories from members are placed. CAgM is about to extend its service into a Grid portal to share computer resources, information and human resources with user communities as a part of GFCS. To facilitate ICT resources sharing, a specialized or dedicated Data Center or Production Center (DCPC) of WMO Information System for WAMIS is under implementation by Korea Meteorological Administration. CAgM will provide land surface information to support LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System) of next generation Earth System as an information provider. The International Society for Agricultural Meteorology (INSAM) is an Internet market place for agrometeorologists. In an effort to strengthen INSAM as UIP for research community in AgroMeteorology, it was proposed by CAgM to establish Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS). CAgM will try to encourage the next generation agrometeorological experts through Global Center of Excellence in Research and Education in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) including graduate programmes under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub of Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology (GIAM of CAgM). It would be coordinated under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub for all global initiatives such as GFAMS, GAMPP, GAPON including WAMIS II, primarily targeting on GFCS implementations.

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.147-165
    • /
    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

  • PDF