• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모델링

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Development of Simulator for Analyzing Intercept Performance of Surface-to-air Missile (지대공미사일 요격 성능 분석 시뮬레이터 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Hwan;Seo, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2010
  • In modern war, Intercept Performance of SAM(Surface to Air Missile) is gaining importance as range and precision of Missile and Guided Weapon on information warfare have been improved. An aerial defence system using Surface-to-air Radar and Guided Missile is needed to be built for prediction and defense from threatening aerial attack. When developing SAM, M&S is used to free from a time limit and a space restriction. M&S is widely applied to education, training, and design of newest Weapon System. This study was conducted to develop simulator for evaluation of Intercept Performance of SAM. In this study, architecture of Intercept Performance of SAM analysis simulator for estimation of Intercept Performance of various SAM was suggested and developed. The developed Intercept Performance of SAM analysis simulator was developed by C++ and Direct3D, and through 3D visualization using the Direct3D, it shows procedures of the simulation on a user animation window. Information about design and operation of Fighting model is entered through input window of the simulator, and simulation engine consisted of Object Manager, Operation Manager, and Integrated Manager conducts modeling and simulation automatically using the information, so the simulator gives user feedback in a short time.

A Study on Improvement of Air Quality Dispersion Model Application Method in Environmental Impact Assessment (II) - Focusing on AERMOD Model Application Method - (환경영향평가에서의 대기질 확산모델 적용방법 개선 연구(II) - AERMOD 모델 적용방법을 중심으로 -)

  • Suhyang Kim;Sunhwan Park;Hyunsoo Joo;Minseop So;Naehyun Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2023
  • The AERMOD model was the most used, accounting for 89.0%, based on the analysis of the environmental impact assessment reports published in the Environmental Impact Assessment Information Support System (EIASS) between 2021 and 2022. The mismatch of versions between AERMET and AERMOD was found to be 25.3%. There was the operational time discrepancy of 50.6% from industrial complexes, urban development projects between used in the model and applied in estimating pollutant emissions. The results of applying various versions of the AERMET and AERMOD models to both area sources and point sources in both simple and complex terrain in the Gunsan area showed similar values after AERMOD version 12 (15181). Emissions are assessed as 24-hour operation, and the predicted concentration in both simple and complex terrain when using the variable emission coefficient option that applies an 8-hour daytime operation in the model is lowered by 37.42% ~ 74.27% for area sources and by 32.06% ~ 54.45% for point sources. Therefore, to prevent the error in using the variable emission coefficient, it is required to clearly present the emission calculation process and provide a detailed explanation of the composition of modeling input data in the environmental impact assessment reports. Also, thorough reviews by special institutions are essential.

A Study of Pre-Service Secondary Science Teacher's Conceptual Understanding on Carbon Neutral: Focused on Eye Tracking System (탄소중립에 관한 중등 과학 예비교사들의 개념 이해 연구 : 시선추적시스템을 중심으로)

  • Younjeong Heo;Shin Han;Hyoungbum Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.261-275
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the conceptual understanding of carbon neutrality among secondary school science pre-service teachers, as well as to identify gaze patterns in visual materials. For this study, gaze tracking data of 20 pre-service secondary school science teachers were analyzed. Through this, the levels of conceptual understanding of carbon neutrality were categorized for the participants, and differences in gaze patterns were analyzed based on the degree of conceptual understanding of carbon neutrality. The research findings are as follows. First, as a result of performing modeling activities to predict carbon emissions and removals until 2100 using the concept of '2050 carbon neutrality,' 50% of the participants held a conception that carbon emissions would continue to increase. Additionally, 25% of the participants did not properly understand the causal relationship between net carbon dioxide emissions and cumulative concentrations. Second, the gaze movements of the participants regarding visual materials related to carbon neutrality were significantly influenced by the information presented in the text area, and in the case of graphs, the focus was mainly on the data area. Moreover, when visual data with the same function and category were arranged, participants showed the most interest in materials explaining concepts or visual data placed on the left side. This implies a preference for specific positions or orders. Participants with lower levels of conceptual understanding and inadequate grasp of causal relationships among elements exhibited notably reduced concentration and overall gaze flow. These findings suggest that conceptual understanding of carbon neutrality including climate change and natural disaster significantly influences interest in and engagement with visual materials.

Implicit Numerical Integration of Two-surface Plasticity Model for Coarse-grained Soils (Implicit 수치적분 방법을 이용한 조립토에 관한 구성방정식의 수행)

  • Choi, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2006
  • The successful performance of any numerical geotechnical simulation depends on the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical implementation of constitutive model used to simulate the stress-strain (constitutive) response of the soil. The corner stone of the numerical implementation of constitutive models is the numerical integration of the incremental form of soil-plasticity constitutive equations over a discrete sequence of time steps. In this paper a well known two-surface soil plasticity model is implemented using a generalized implicit return mapping algorithm to arbitrary convex yield surfaces referred to as the Closest-Point-Projection method (CPPM). The two-surface model describes the nonlinear behavior of coarse-grained materials by incorporating a bounding surface concept together with isotropic and kinematic hardening as well as fabric formulation to account for the effect of fabric formation on the unloading response. In the course of investigating the performance of the CPPM integration method, it is proven that the algorithm is an accurate, robust, and efficient integration technique useful in finite element contexts. It is also shown that the algorithm produces a consistent tangent operator $\frac{d\sigma}{d\varepsilon}$ during the iterative process with quadratic convergence rate of the global iteration process.

Development of a Model for Estimating Leaf Area and the Number of Flower Using Leaf Length and Width of Farfugium japonicum Kitam. (털머위(Farfugium japonicum Kitam.)의 엽장과 엽폭을 이용한 엽면적 및 개화 수 추정 모델 개발)

  • Dae Ho Jung;Yong Suk Chung;Hyunseung Hwang
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2023
  • The leopard plant has the characteristic of being used for ornamental purposes when there are yellow spots on the leaves, and is widely used as a bed plant for viewing flowers. To set several indicators to predict the growth of crops with ornamental value, and to quantitatively express the relationship between the indicators are necessary. In this study, we determine a model that estimates the leaf area and the number of flower of Farfugium japonicum Kitam. using leaf length and width, and conducting a regression analysis on some regression models. As an indicator for estimating the leaf area and the number of flower, the leaf length and width of F. japonicum were measured and applied to 8 regression models. As a result of regression analysis of 8 models that estimated leaf area and the number of flower, R2 values of the linear models were all higher than 0.84 and 0.80. As a result of validation, using the most reliable model among the models for estimating the leaf area and the number of flowering, R2 was 0.90 and 0.82, respectively. Using a model that estimates various indicators that can be used for quality evaluation from easy-to-measure morphological factors, the evaluation of ornamental plants will be facilitated.

Modeling of Dam collapse using PMF and MCE conditions (PMF 및 MCE조건을 적용한 댐 붕괴 모델링)

  • Lee, Dong Hyeok;Jun, Kye Won;Lee, Byung Dae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.368-368
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    • 2020
  • 최근 초대형화 되어 나타나고 있는 이상홍수와 지진 등에 의한 저수지 붕괴와 같은 대규모 비상상황 발생으로 하류지역 주민의 생명과 재산의 피해가 발생하고 있다. 국내의 경우 1996년 이후로 지속적으로 발생하고 있는 이상홍수로 인해 1998년에는 40개,1999년에는 5개의 소규모 저수지가 붕괴되었으며 최근 2013년과 2014년에도 저수지가 붕괴되는 상황이 발생했다. 댐붕괴의 원인은 구조물의 자연적 노화, 극심한 강우나 홍수, 지진, 제체전도, 파이핑, 침윤발생, 월류 및 파랑 등에 의한 자연적 상황 등이 요인이 될 수 있으며, 시공결함, 사고 또는 전쟁과 같은 인위적인 요인으로 발생할 수도 있다. 과거에 설계 및 시공기술이 부족하였거나 경제적인 이유로 부실하게 건설되어 있는 댐이 세계적으로 산재되어 있어 잠재적인 위험을 상당수 내재하고 있는 실정이다. 본연구는 댐의 점진적인 파괴에 의해 발생하는 유출수문곡선을 구하고 파괴의 성질을 예측 및 홍수파를 수리학적으로 추적하기위해 BREACH 모형과 DAMBRK 모형을 사용했으며 극한홍수(PMF)조건과와 최대지진발생(MCE)조건을 적용하여 원주시 관내 저수지 붕괴 모의 시나리오를 구축했다. 저수지 붕괴에 따른 유출수문곡선을 유도하기 위해서 본 연구에서는 기존의 EAP보고서 자료를 참고하여 붕괴지속시간, 붕괴부 평균폭, 붕괴부 측벽면 경사의 변화에 따라 다양한 모의를 수행함으로써 발생되는 붕괴부 유량 수문곡선을 도출하여 각각의 조건들이 붕괴파 형성에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 저수지의 붕괴시 첨두유출량에 민감한 영향을 주는 인자는 붕괴지속시간과, 붕괴부 평균폭으로서 이들 값이 붕괴유출량 변화에 많은 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 최대지진발생(MCE)조건 해석결과 홍수류의 범람으로 인해 홍수파가 하류측으로 진행할수록 완만히 감소하며, 하천 중·상류부 인근 제내지로 홍수류의 범람이 발생하는 것으로 검토되었으며, 극한홍수(PMF)조건 해석결과 최대지진발생(MCE)조건과 같이 홍수파가 하류측으로 진행할수록 완만히 감소하는 특성을 보이며, 하천 전체 구간에서 인근제내지로 홍수류의 범람이 발생하는 것으로 검토되었다. 본 연구는 침수구역 피해규모 산정 및 비상대처계획도를 작성시 기초데이터가 되어 상황별 피해예상지역에 대해 응급행동요령, 주민대피계획비상대처계획을 수립하여 지역 주민생활에 안정을 기여하고자 한다.

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Extraction of Snowmelt Parameters using NOAA AVHRR and GIS Technique for 7 Major Dam Watersheds in South Korea (NOAA AVHRR 영상 및 GIS 기법을 이용한 국내 주요 7개 댐 유역의 융설 매개변수 추출)

  • Shin, Hyung Jin;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2008
  • Accurate monitoring of snow cover is a key component for studying climate and global as well as for daily weather forecasting and snowmelt runoff modelling. The few observed data related to snowmelt was the major cause of difficulty in extracting snowmelt factors such as snow cover area, snow depth and depletion curve. Remote sensing technology is very effective to observe a wide area. Although many researchers have used remote sensing for snow observation, there were a few discussions on the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation. Snow cover maps were derived from NOAA AVHRR images for the winter seasons from 1997 to 2006. Distributed snow depth was mapped by overlapping between snow cover maps and interpolated snowfall maps from 69 meteorological observation stations. Model parameters (Snow Cover Area: SCA, snow depth, Snow cover Depletion Curve: SDC) were built for 7 major watersheds in South Korea. The decrease pattern of SCA for time (day) was expressed as exponentially decay function, and the determination coefficient was ranged from 0.46 to 0.88. The SCA decreased 70% to 100% from the maximum SCA when 10 days passed.

Stress Intensity Factor of Cracked Plates with Bonded Composite Patch by p-Convergence Based Laminated Plate Theory (p-수렴 적층 평판이론에 의한 균열판의 팻취보강후 응력확대계수 산정)

  • Woo, Kwang-Sung;Han, Sang-Hyun;Yang, Seung-Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5A
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    • pp.649-656
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    • 2008
  • The enhancement of the service life of damaged or cracked structures is a major issue for researchers and engineers. The hierarchic void element based on the integrals of Legendre polynomials is used to characterize the fracture behaviour of unpatched crack as well as repaired crack with bonded composite patches by computing the stress intensity factors and stress contours at the crack tip. Since the equivalent single layer approach is adopted in this study, the proposed element is necessary to represent a discontinuous crack part as a continuum body with zero stiffness. Thus the aspect ratio of this element to represent the crack should be extremely slender. The sensitivity of numerical solution with respect to energy release rate, displacement and stress has been tested to show the robustness of zero stiffness element as the aspect ratio is increased up to 2000. The stiffness derivative method and displacement extrapolation method have been applied to calculate the stress intensity factors of Mode I problem. It is noted that the proposed hierarchical void element can be one of alternatives to analyze the patched crack problems.

The impact of organizational socialization tactics on newcomers' organizational citizenship behaviors: The mediating effect of perceived organizational support (조직사회화 기법이 신입사원의 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향: 조직지원인식의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Kyungmin Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.519-539
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    • 2018
  • This study investigates the impact of organizational socialization tactics on newcomers' organizational citizenship behaviors. We explains this relationship with the concept of perceived organizational support, which refers to the extent to which individuals perceive that the organization recognizes their contributions and takes care of their well-being. We expect that the more institutionalized the organization's socialization tactics are, the more organizational support individuals perceive, consequently increasing the performance of organizational citizenship behaviors. We performed a survey targeting 450 newcomers in domestic companies, and adopted 382 data for path analyses based on the structural equation modeling. As the result, in all the three dimensions of socialization tactics (content, context, social), the extent to which socialization tactics are institutionalized is positively related to the perception of organizational support. It also has the positive relationship with individuals' organizational citizenship behaviors, being fully mediated by the perceived organizational support. More specifically, context socialization tactics shows the highest level of impact both on the perceived organizational support and organizational citizenship behaviors, whereas social tactics has the lowest level of impact. These results imply that the range of effects the organizational socialization has on the newcomers' attitudes and behaviors should be more extended and detailed.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.