• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.39 no.9
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• pp.735-742
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• 2015

In this paper, we compare and verify the prediction accuracy and feasibility for wind resources on a wind farm using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is a numerical weather-prediction model. This model is not only able to simulate local weather phenomena, but also does not require automatic weather station (AWS), satellite, or meteorological mast data. To verify the feasibility of WRF to predict the wind resources required from a wind farm pre-feasibility study, we compare and verify measured wind data and the results predicted by WAsP. To do this, we use the Pyeongdae and Udo sites, which are located on the northeastern part of Jeju island. Together with the measured data, we use the results of annual and monthly mean wind speed, the Weibull distribution, the annual energy production (AEP), and a wind rose. The WRF results are shown to have a higher accuracy than the WAsP results. We therefore confirmed that WRF wind resources can be used in wind farm pre-feasibility studies.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.619-624
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• 2007

본 연구는 유전 알고리듬에 기반한 새로운 도산예측기법을 개발하고 그 기법의 타당성 및 예측 우수성을 검증하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 이진분류기법은 도산기업과 비도산기업을 대표할 수 있는 가상기업(virtual company)을 설정하고, 그 가상기업과 분류대상 기업 간의 유사도를 측정하여 도산여부를 분류하는 방법론으로, 가상기업의 변수 값과 각 변수의 가중치는 훈련용 자료의 분류정확도를 극대화할 수 있도록 유전 알고리듬을 이용하여 구하게 된다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 기법의 타당성을 검증하기 위해 기존의 도산예측기법과 예측성과를 실험을 통해 비교한 결과, 본 연구에서 개발한 기법의 예측력이 기존의 다변량판별분석, 로지스틱 회귀모형, 의사결정나무, 인공신경망 모형보다 높은 수준을 보이는 것을 확인하였다.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2003.07c
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• pp.1635-1637
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• 2003

송전선의 뇌사고율은 뇌방전 현상, 송전선의 써지 전달 현상, 아킹혼 사이의 섬락 현상 등 다양한 현상이 관련된다. 송전선의 내뢰설계 목표는 이러한 자연현상 및 물리적인 현상이 편차를 포함하고 있다는 것을 인식하고, 가능한 한 정확도가 높은 뇌사고율을 예측을 수행하고 허용 가능한 뇌사고율을 산정하여 송전선로 설계시 반영하는 것이다. 이러한 예측 계산을 위해 한전에서는 EPRI에서 개발한 FLASH 프로그램을 기본으로 사용해 왔으며, 이 예측계산법의 타당성은 예측 사고율과 사고 실적과의 비교에 의해 검토되어야 한다. 한전에서는 과거 10년간의 뇌사고 실적과 FLASH 프로그램으로 계산한 예측 사고율이 차이가 많이 나타나고 있어, FLASH 프로그램의 예측 계산법의 타당성에 의문을 제기하고 있는 상황이다. 일본 전력회사들은 뇌사고율을 예측 계산하기 위하여 1988년에 전력중앙연구소에서 개발한 프로그램을 사용하여 왔으며, 최근에 사고 실적과의 비교 및 관련 연구를 수행하여 예측 계산 프로그램에 사용되는 파라메타를 수정 보완한 LORP2000-1을 완성하였다. 본 논문에서는 지리, 기후적으로 한국과 유사한 일본의 자연현상을 반영한 LORP 프로그램의 예측계산법이 한전 송전선로의 뇌사고율 예측 계산에 적용 가능성을 사고 실적과의 비교를 통해 검토하였다.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.34-40
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• 2004

This study introduces and empirically test the validity of Bass model that helps demand forecasting of new game products. The application of Bass model to new game products show that Bass model predicts the demand of new game accurately. In particular, it showed very good predictability of on-line game products.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.9-15
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• 2005

Congestion control is an important research area in computer network. In this paper, I provided strategy of congestion pricing with differentiated services. And, suggested forecasting model of access that considered differentiated pricing, delay time, satisfaction using logistic regression. In a forecasting model of access with logistic regression technique, it is shown that coefficient of determination using suggested model is $70.7\%$.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.175-182
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• 2019

This study was conducted to test the assessment validity and examine the cut-off scores for driving risk as a part of the Self-report Assessment Forecasting Elderly Driving Risk (SAFE-DR) development project. The 132 senior drivers were categorized as either risky of 58 or safe of 74 drivers through the Drivers 65 Plus. Based on this initial assessment, we analyzed the risk prediction cut-offs. Furthermore, we tested the construct, content, and predictive validity. The cut-off score for the prediction of driving risk was found to be 74.5 points. The positive predictive value was 88.6%, and the negative predictive value was 86.3% about the cut-off score, signifying an excellent level of discrimination. Convergent validity, nomological validity, and content validity were found to be appropriate. Therefore, this study confirms that SAFE-DR is an appropriate assessment that can be used to screen dangerous elderly drivers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.76-86
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• 2007

Construction development work invents profit as those finalize object, and a make or break success of project depends on correct analysis and forecast business feasibility at project early. Business feasibility study would be decision-making under precarious situation because is connoting uncertainty that is future. estimate at present visual point essentially. Under uncertainty, a decision-making method is based on probability theory of statistics, but business feasibility study had applied with not feasibility study by probabilistic decision method but it by determinism derision method so far. Therefore in this study doing decision-making by a probability theory method for successful project at early business feasibility study, it present a probabilistic study method that use simulation that can supply a little more correct and reliable data to decision-maker As result, a probabilistic study method is more suitable than deterministic study method as technique for a financial feasibility study of construction development work. Making good use of this probabilistic study method at important business or careful decision-making, because efficient Judgment that is based accuracy and authoritativeness may become available.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.974-977
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 건설 공사소음 예측 및 가설방음벽 설계를 위해 개발한 공사장 소음예측 프로그램에 대해 소개하고자 한다. 또한, 건설장비가 운영되는 동안 이격거리별 소음측정을 수행한 후 측정결과와 해석결과와의 비교검토를 통해 개발 프로그램의 타당성을 검증하고자 하며, 상용되고 있는 소음해석 전용 소프트웨어를 이용해 다양한 경우에 대한 소음해석을 수행한 후 해석결과를 개발 프로그램의 해석결과와 비교함으로서 개발 프로그램의 타당성을 검증하는 것을 본 연구의 목적으로 한다.

• The Journal of Information Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.191-207
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• 1999

The study is in attempting for reviewing the selection problem of the measurement and the model, concerning a consumer satisfaction model. Therefore, a common model, which measures degree of consumer satisfaction by an arithmetic mean from measurement method including data, which assess compulsively the attribution and the importance to consumers, shows the problems of a field application. There showed a high predictive validity in the model of a singular item using the degree of a general satisfaction rather than a detailed assessment. However, the single model needs the model of consumer satisfaction from the using of plural items, because of the field problems that produce in an alternative application. There showed a high significance level in the model including variables, which are showing a high correlation between purchase intention and predictive validity.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.5 s.27
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• pp.110-118
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• 2005

This paper examines the method of evaluation for feasibility study factors on housing development projects which can assist project managers to asses potential sources of risk. The aim is to reduce uncertainty on the project objectives. The major initial goals for a feasibility analysis are to define a limited set of key related factors which apply to housing development project according to development and market environment, condition of project planning and economics. Thus, in order to construct types of factors related with the feasibility, the research executes Delphi Method subjected personnel in the task to explore housing development projects. Such exploration provide the information for Importance Index, Extra Weight and the Mean of Extra Weight that is used for constituting confines of factors related with a feasibility analysis.