• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측성능 개선

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A study on the prediction of aquatic ecosystem health grade in ungauged rivers through the machine learning model based on GAN data (GAN 데이터 기반의 머신러닝 모델을 통한 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 등급 예측 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Seoro;Lee, Jimin;Lee, Gwanjae;Kim, Jonggun;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.448-448
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    • 2021
  • 최근 급격한 기후변화와 도시화 및 산업화로 인한 지류하천에서의 수량과 수질의 변동은 생물 다양성 감소와 수생태계 건강성 저하에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 효율적인 수생태 관리를 위해서는 지속적인 유량, 수질, 그리고 수생태 모니터링을 통한 데이터 축적과 더불어 면밀한 상관 분석을 통해 수생태계 건강성의 악화 원인을 규명해야 할 필요가 있다. 그러나 수많은 지류하천을 대상으로 한 지속적인 모니터링은 현실적으로 어려움이 있으며, 수생태계의 특성 상 단일 영향 인자만으로 수생태계의 건강성 변화와의 관계를 정확히 파악하는데 한계가 있다. 따라서 지류하천에서의 유량 및 수질의 시공간적인 변동성과 다양한 영향 인자를 고려하여 수생태계의 건강성을 효율적으로 예측할 수 있는 기술이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 경험적 데이터 기반의 머신러닝 모델 구축을 통해 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 지수(BMI, TDI, FAI)의 등급(A to E)을 예측하고자 하였다. 머신러닝 모델은 학습 데이터셋의 양과 질에 따라 성능이 크게 달라질 수 있으며, 학습 데이터셋의 분포가 불균형적일 경우 과적합 또는 과소적합 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 이를 보완하고자 본 연구에서는 실제 측정망 데이터셋을 바탕으로 생성적 적대 신경망 GAN(Generative Adversarial Network) 알고리즘을 통해 머신러닝 모델 학습에 필요한 추가 데이터셋(유량, 수질, 기상, 수생태 등급)을 확보하였다. 머신러닝 모델의 성능은 5차 교차검증 과정을 통해 평가하였으며, GAN 데이터셋의 정확도는 실제 측정망 데이터셋의 정규분포와의 비교 분석을 통해 평가하였다. 최종적으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 통해 예측 된 미계측 하천에서의 데이터셋을 머신러닝 모델의 검증 자료로 사용하여 수생태계 건강성 등급 예측 정확도를 평가하였다. 본 연구에서의 GAN에 의해 강화된 머신러닝 모델은 수질 및 수생태 관리가 필요한 우심 지류하천 선정과 구조적/비구조적 최적관리기법에 따른 수생태계 건강성 개선 효과를 평가하는데 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 이를 통해 예측된 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 등급 자료는 수량-수질-수생태를 유기적으로 연계한 통합 물관리 정책을 수립하는데 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이라 사료된다.

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A study on pollutant loads prediction using a convolution neural networks (합성곱 신경망을 이용한 오염부하량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Chul Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.444-444
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    • 2021
  • 하천의 오염부하량 관리 계획은 지속적인 모니터링을 통한 자료 구축과 모형을 이용한 예측결과를 기반으로 수립된다. 하천의 모니터링과 예측 분석은 많은 예산과 인력 등이 필요하나, 정부의 담당 공무원 수는 극히 부족한 상황이 일반적이다. 이에 정부는 전문가에게 관련 용역을 의뢰하지만, 한국과 같이 지형이 복잡한 지역에서의 오염부하량 배출 특성은 각각 다르게 나타나기 때문에 많은 예산 소모가 발생 된다. 이를 개선하고자, 본 연구는 합성곱 신경망 (convolution neural network)과 수문학적 이미지 (hydrological image)를 이용하여 강우 발생시 BOD 및 총인의 부하량 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 합성곱 신경망의 입력자료는 일반적으로 RGB (red, green, bule) 사진을 이용하는데, 이를 그래도 오염부하량 예측에 활용하는 것은 경험적 모형의 전제(독립변수와 종속변수의 관계)를 무너뜨리는 결과를 초래할 수 있다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 오염부하량이 수문학적 조건과 토지이용 등의 변수에 의해 결정된다는 인과관계를 만족시키고자 수문학적 속성이 내재된 수문학적 이미지를 합성곱 신경망의 훈련자료로 사용하였다. 수문학적 이미지는 임의의 유역에 대해 2차원 공간에서 무차원의 수문학적 속성을 갖는 grid의 집합으로 정의되는데, 여기서 각 grid의 수문학적 속성은 SCS 토양보존국(soil conservation service, SCS)에서 발표한 수문학적 토양피복형수 (curve number, CN)를 이용하여 산출한다. 합성곱 신경망의 구조는 2개의 Convolution Layer와 1개의 Pulling Layer가 5회 반복하는 구조로 설정하고, 1개의 Flatten Layer, 3개의 Dense Layer, 1개의 Batch Normalization Layer를 배열하고, 마지막으로 1개의 Dense Layer가 연결되는 구조로 설계하였다. 이와 함께, 각 층의 활성화 함수는 정규화 선형함수 (ReLu)로, 마지막 Dense Layer의 활성화 함수는 연속변수가 도출될 수 있도록 회귀모형에서 자주 사용되는 Linear 함수로 설정하였다. 연구의 대상지역은 경기도 가평군 조종천 유역으로 선정하였고, 연구기간은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2019년 12월 31일까지로, 2010년부터 2016년까지의 자료는 모형의 학습에, 2017년부터 2019년까지의 자료는 모형의 성능평가에 활용하였다. 모형의 예측 성능은 모형효율계수 (NSE), 평균제곱근오차(RMSE) 및 평균절대백분율오차(MAPE)를 이용하여 평가하였다. 그 결과, BOD 부하량에 대한 NSE는 0.9, RMSE는 1031.1 kg/day, MAPE는 11.5%로 나타났으며, 총인 부하량에 대한 NSE는 0.9, RMSE는 53.6 kg/day, MAPE는 17.9%로 나타나 본 연구의 모형은 우수(good)한 것으로 판단하였다. 이에, 본 연구의 모형은 일반 ANN 모형을 이용한 선행연구와는 달리 2차원 공간정보를 반영하여 오염부하량 모의가 가능했으며, 제한적인 입력자료를 이용하여 간편한 모델링이 가능하다는 장점을 나타냈다. 이를 통해 정부의 물관리 정책을 위한 의사결정 및 부족한 물관리 분야의 행정력에 도움이 될 것으로 생각된다.

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Performance Enhancement of Virtual War Field Simulator for Future Autonomous Unmanned System (미래 자율무인체계를 위한 가상 전장 환경 시뮬레이터 성능 개선)

  • Lee, Jun Pyo;Kim, Sang Hee;Park, Jin-Yang
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2013
  • An unmanned ground vehicle(UGV) today plays a significant role in both civilian and military areas. Predominantly these systems are used to replace humans in hazardous situations. To take unmanned ground vehicles systems to the next level and increase their capabilities and the range of missions they are able to perform in the combat field, new technologies are needed in the area of command and control. For this reason, we present war field simulator based on information fusion technology to efficiently control UGV. In this paper, we present the war field simulator which is made of critical components, that is, simulation controller, virtual image viewer, and remote control device to efficiently control UGV in the future combat fields. In our information fusion technology, improved methods of target detection, recognition, and location are proposed. In addition, time reduction method of target detection is also proposed. In the consequence of the operation test, we expect that our war field simulator based on information fusion technology plays an important role in the future military operation significantly.

Development of testing apparatus and fundamental study for performance and cutting tool wear of EPB TBM in soft ground (토사지반 EPB TBM의 굴진성능 및 커팅툴 마모량에 관한 실험장비 개발 및 기초연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Young;Kang, Han-Byul;Shin, Young Jin;Jung, Jae-Hoon;Lee, Jae-won
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.453-467
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    • 2018
  • The excavation performance and the cutting tool wear prediction of shield TBM are very important issues for design and construction in TBM tunneling. For hard-rock TBMs, CSM and NTNU model have been widely used for prediction of disc cutter wear and penetration rate. But in case of soft-ground TBMs, the wear evaluation and the excavation performance have not been studied in details due to the complexity of the ground behavior and therefore few testing methods have been proposed. In this study, a new soil abrasion and penetration tester (SAPT) that simulates EPB TBM excavation process is introduced which overcomes the drawbacks of the previously developed soil abrasivity testers. Parametric tests for penetration rate, foam mixing ratio, foam concentration were conducted to evaluate influential parameters affecting TBM excavation and also ripper wear was measured in laboratory. The results of artificial soil specimen composed of 70% illite and 30% silica sand showed TBM additives such as foam play a key role in terms of excavation and tool wear.

Performance Improvement of an Energy Efficient Cluster Management Based on Autonomous Learning (자율학습기반의 에너지 효율적인 클러스터 관리에서의 성능 개선)

  • Cho, Sungchul;Chung, Kyusik
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.4 no.11
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    • pp.369-382
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    • 2015
  • Energy aware server clusters aim to reduce power consumption at maximum while keeping QoS(quality of service) compared to energy non-aware server clusters. They adjust the power mode of each server in a fixed or variable time interval to activate only the minimum number of servers needed to handle current user requests. Previous studies on energy aware server cluster put efforts to reduce power consumption or heat dissipation, but they do not consider energy efficiency well. In this paper, we propose an energy efficient cluster management method to improve not only performance per watt but also QoS of the existing server power mode control method based on autonomous learning. Our proposed method is to adjust server power mode based on a hybrid approach of autonomous learning method with multi level thresholds and power consumption prediction method. Autonomous learning method with multi level thresholds is applied under normal load situation whereas power consumption prediction method is applied under abnormal load situation. The decision on whether current load is normal or abnormal depends on the ratio of the number of current user requests over the average number of user requests during recent past few minutes. Also, a dynamic shutdown method is additionally applied to shorten the time delay to make servers off. We performed experiments with a cluster of 16 servers using three different kinds of load patterns. The multi-threshold based learning method with prediction and dynamic shutdown shows the best result in terms of normalized QoS and performance per watt (valid responses). For banking load pattern, real load pattern, and virtual load pattern, the numbers of good response per watt in the proposed method increase by 1.66%, 2.9% and 3.84%, respectively, whereas QoS in the proposed method increase by 0.45%, 1.33% and 8.82%, respectively, compared to those in the existing autonomous learning method with single level threshold.

Performance Enhancement Study of a Final Clarifier by the Optimum Design of Inlet and Baffle Condition (유입구 및 정류벽 최적설계에 의한 최종 침전지 성능 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Hey-Suk;Shin, Mi-Soo;Jang, Dong-Soon;Jung, Sung-Hee;Gang, Dong-Hyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2005
  • The effluent quality is directly affected by the separation of biological solids in a final clarifier because the majority of discharged $BOD_5$ and SS are virtually dependent on the results of biological solids in the sedimentation tank effluent. If a final clarifier is effectively designed and operated, the desired goal of clarification for wastewater can be achieved together with the cost reduction in the treatment of wastewater. To this end flow characteristics and the removal efficiency of SS are numerically investigated especially by the change of the inlet position and the installation of baffle to improve the performance of a rectangular final clarifier. The 2-D computer program developed in a rectangular coordinates has been successfully validated against experimental residence time distribution(RTD) curves obtained by tracing radio-isotope. The lowering of the inlet position weakens the density current and induces the settling of SS in the front zone of a clarifier. Thus the decreased traveling distance of the sludge increases the removal efficiency of SS in the effluent. The inlet baffle installed in the front region of clarifier prevents the short circuiting flow and induces to flow into the dense underflow, which eventually improves the effluent quality. In the case of lower inlet position, however, installation of baffle results in degradation of effluent quality. Consequently it is strongly recommended that in-depth numerical study be performed in advance for optimizing a clarifier design and retrofitting to improve effluent quality in a final clarifier.

A Study on the Improvement of Injection Molding Process Using CAE and Decision-tree (CAE와 Decision-tree를 이용한 사출성형 공정개선에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Soonhwan;Han, Seong-Ryeol;Lee, Hoojin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.580-586
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    • 2021
  • The CAT methodology is a numerical analysis technique using CAE. Recently, a methodology of applying artificial intelligence techniques to a simulation has been studied. A previous study compared the deformation results according to the injection molding process using a machine learning technique. Although MLP has excellent prediction performance, it lacks an explanation of the decision process and is like a black box. In this study, data was generated using Autodesk Moldflow 2018, an injection molding analysis software. Several Machine Learning Algorithms models were developed using RapidMiner version 9.5, a machine learning platform software, and the root mean square error was compared. The decision-tree showed better prediction performance than other machine learning techniques with the RMSE values. The classification criterion can be increased according to the Maximal Depth that determines the size of the Decision-tree, but the complexity also increases. The simulation showed that by selecting an intermediate value that satisfies the constraint based on the changed position, there was 7.7% improvement compared to the previous simulation.

Improvement in flow and noise performance of backward centrifugal fan by redesigning airfoil geometry (익형 형상 재설계를 통한 후향익 원심팬의 유동 및 소음성능 개선)

  • Jung, Minseung;Choi, Jinho;Ryu, Seo-Yoon;Cheong, Cheolung;Kim, Tae-hoon;Koo, Junhyo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.555-565
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    • 2021
  • The goal of this study is to improve flow and noise performances of existing backward-curved blade centrifugal fan system used for circulating cold air in a refrigerator freezer by optimally designing airfoil shape. The unique characteristics of the system is to drive cold airflow with two volute tongues in combination with duct system in a back side of a refrigerator without scroll housing generally used in a typical centrifugal fan system. First, flow and noise performances of existing fan system were evaluated experimentally. A P-Q curve was obtained using a fan performance tester in the flow experiment, and noise spectrum was measured in an anechoic chamber in the noise experiment. Then, flow characteristics were numerically analyzed by solving the three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations and noise analysis was performed by solving the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkins equation with input from the flow simulation results. The validity of numerical results was confirmed by comparing them with the measured ones. Based on the verified numerical method, blade inlet and outlet angles were optimized for maximum flow rate using the two-factor central composite design of the response surface method. Finally, the flow and noise performances of a prototype manufactured with the optimum design were experimentally evaluated, which showed the improvement in flow and noise performance.

A Study on Enhancing Personalization Recommendation Service Performance with CNN-based Review Helpfulness Score Prediction (CNN 기반 리뷰 유용성 점수 예측을 통한 개인화 추천 서비스 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Li, Qinglong;Lee, Byunghyun;Li, Xinzhe;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.29-56
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    • 2021
  • Recently, various types of products have been launched with the rapid growth of the e-commerce market. As a result, many users face information overload problems, which is time-consuming in the purchasing decision-making process. Therefore, the importance of a personalized recommendation service that can provide customized products and services to users is emerging. For example, global companies such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google have introduced personalized recommendation services to support users' purchasing decisions. Accordingly, the user's information search cost can reduce which can positively affect the company's sales increase. The existing personalized recommendation service research applied Collaborative Filtering (CF) technique predicts user preference mainly use quantified information. However, the recommendation performance may have decreased if only use quantitative information. To improve the problems of such existing studies, many studies using reviews to enhance recommendation performance. However, reviews contain factors that hinder purchasing decisions, such as advertising content, false comments, meaningless or irrelevant content. When providing recommendation service uses a review that includes these factors can lead to decrease recommendation performance. Therefore, we proposed a novel recommendation methodology through CNN-based review usefulness score prediction to improve these problems. The results show that the proposed methodology has better prediction performance than the recommendation method considering all existing preference ratings. In addition, the results suggest that can enhance the performance of traditional CF when the information on review usefulness reflects in the personalized recommendation service.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.