• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측강수

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An analytical Study for the Development of Highly Elastic Material applicable for Joint in Modular Pavement (모듈러 포장에 적용가능한 고탄성 연결재료 개발을 위한 해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Ho;Kang, Su-Tae;Song, Jae-Joon;Lee, Sang-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.5947-5955
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    • 2013
  • This study was intended to estimate the axial deformation of joint between pavement modules in the rapid-constructible modular pavement system, and to investigate the applicability of two-phase composites for a joint material, which was composed of cement paste, epoxy, or polyurethane as a matrix and sand as particles. A case which had supports under the pavement module as well as a case which the module was put on roadbed directly were considered in FEM analysis for the axial deformation. The effect of self-weight, live load, thermal change, and drying shrinkage were estimated and the thermal change was found to cause the largest deformation compared to the others. Deformation capacity of two-phase composites was predicted using the modified shear-lag model. In the analytical results for the elastic modulus and maximum tensile strain with different volume fractions of sand, 20~30 % replacement of sand was revealed to satisfy the required strain capacity with economy when if the width of joint was designed to be 15~20 mm.

Estimation of Distributed Groundwater Recharge in Mihocheon Watershed (미호천 유역의 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo;Won, Yoo-Seung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.698-701
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    • 2007
  • 지하수 개발가능량 산정을 위한 함양량의 평가는 수문계의 물리적인 형태나 함수층의 수리성 분석 및 수직인 지질분포를 파악하여 어떤 조건하에서 물이 유입 유출되는가를 파악한 후에만 가능하다. 또한 지하수계의 물리적인 형태를 이해함으로써 조사지역의 지표수계나 지하수계의 양계를 통해서 흐르는 물의 양을 결정짓는 물수지 분석이 수행되어야 한다. 이에 따라 강수량, 증발산량, 지하수 유출량, 지표유출량 그리고 하천유출량 등을 수문학적으로 고려해야만 한다. 본 연구는 지표수-지하수 결합모형을 도입하여 분포형 지하수 함양량의 시공간적인 변동성을 파악하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 지표수-지하수 결합모형인 SWAT-K모형을 미호천 유역에 적용하였으며, 지표수의 총유출량과 지하수위의 공간분포자료를 이용하여 검정과 검증을 수행하였다. 전체유역에 대한 연평균 함양량은 수문총량의 약 19%인 것으로 나타났다. 1999년${\sim}$2004년까지의 소유역별 연간 함양량 결과를 월별로 나타냈으며, HRU(Hydrologic Response Unit)별 함양량의 공간분포를 통해 월별, 계절별 특성을 살펴볼 수 있었다. 소유역 모두 강수가 집중하는 7-9월에 걸쳐 많은 함양이 이루어지며 $1{\sim}3$월에는 상대적으로 함양이 적은 것을 볼 수 있다. 월함양량의 경우 최대 약200mm범위내에서 유역의 토지이용 및 토양특성, 경사등에 따라 매우 비균질하게 분포하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이와같은 함양량의 시공간적 불균일성으로 인해 지하수 관리방안은 소유역별 함양특성을 반영해야 할 것으로 판단된다.의 종분산지수가 일반적인 자연대수층에 비해 9.1배 정도 높다는 것을 의미한다. 이는 시험대수층의 투수성이 매우 높아 염소이온의 용질이송이 매우 빠르게 발생되었기 때문이다. 본 연구에서 추정된 종분산지수를 Gelhar et al.(1992)의 연구 결과와 비교 분석한 결과에서도 시험규모에 비해 매우 높은 수리분산이 발생된 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 염소이온의 확산면적을 추정하기 위해, 수렴흐름 추적자시험에 의한 종분산지수와 시험대수층의 평균선형유속을 이용하여 종분산계수를 구하였다. 현장에서 수행된 양수시험에 의한 평균선형유속 22.44 m/day와 평균 종분산지수 0.4155 m를 적용하여 산정된 종분산계수는 $9.32\;m^2/day$이었다. 따라서, 시험부지 내 충적층에서 일정한 양수율$(2,500\;m^3/day)$로 지하수를 개발할 시에 양수정 주변지역으로 유입되는 염소이온의 확산면적은 1일 $9.32\;m^2$ 정도일 것으로 나타났다.적인 $OH{\cdot}$ 의 생성은 ascorbate가 조직손상에 관여할 가능성을 시사하였다.었다. 정확한 예측치를 얻기 위하여 불균질 조직이 조사야에 포함되는 경우 보정이 요구되며, 골반의 경우 골 조직의 보정이 중요한 요인임을 알 수 있었다. 이를 위하여 불균질 조직에 대한 정확한 정보가 요구되며, 이는 CT 영상을 이용하는 것이 크게 도움이 되리라 생각된다.전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin

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Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Park, Myungwoo;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2016
  • Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

Use of Space-time Autocorrelation Information in Time-series Temperature Mapping (시계열 기온 분포도 작성을 위한 시공간 자기상관성 정보의 결합)

  • Park, No-Wook;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.432-442
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    • 2011
  • Climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation tend to vary both in space and in time simultaneously. Thus, it is necessary to include space-time autocorrelation into conventional spatial interpolation methods for reliable time-series mapping. This paper introduces and applies space-time variogram modeling and space-time kriging to generate time-series temperature maps using hourly Automatic Weather System(AWS) temperature observation data for a one-month period. First, temperature observation data are decomposed into deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. For trend component modeling, elevation data which have reasonable correlation with temperature are used as secondary information to generate trend component with topographic effects. Then, space-time variograms of residual components are estimated and modelled by using a product-sum space-time variogram model to account for not only autocorrelation both in space and in time, but also their interactions. From a case study, space-time kriging outperforms both conventional space only ordinary kriging and regression-kriging, which indicates the importance of using space-time autocorrelation information as well as elevation data. It is expected that space-time kriging would be a useful tool when a space-poor but time-rich dataset is analyzed.

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Effects of DEM Resolutions in Site Classification (DEM 해상도가 지반분류에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Su-Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2011
  • Site conditions affect the magnitude of loss due to geologic hazards including, but not limited to, earthquakes, landslides and liquefaction. Reliable geologic loss estimation system requires site information which can be achieved by GIS-based method using geologic or topographic maps. Slope data derived from DEM can be an effective indicator for classifying the site conditions. We studied and discussed the effect of different DEM resolutions in the site classification. We limited the study area to the south-eastern Korea and used two different resolutions of DEMs to observe discrepancies in the site classification results. Largest discrepancy is observed in the areal coverage of site class C(very dense soil and soft rock) and E(soft soil). Comparison of results shows that more areas are classified as site class B(general rock) or E(soft soil) when we use higher resolution DEM. The comparison also shows that more areas are classified as site class C or D(stiff soil) using lower resolution DEM. The comparison of results using resampled DEMs with different resolutions shows that the areal coverage of site class B and E decreases with decreasing resolutions. On the contrary, areal coverage of site class C and D increase with decreasing resolutions. Loss estimation system can take advantage of higher-resolution DEMs in the area of rugged or populated to obtain precise local site information.

Correlation Analysis of Forest Fire Occurrences by Change of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI 변화에 따른 산불발생과의 관계 분석)

  • YOON, Suk-Hee;WON, Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.14-26
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the correlation between the standardized precipitation index(SPI) and forest fire occurrences using monthly accumulative rainfall data since 1970 and regional fire occurrence data since 1991. To understand the relationship between the SPI and forest fire occurrences, the correlations among the SPI of nine main observatory weather stations including Seoul, number of fire occurrences, and log of fire occurrences were analyzed. We analyzed the correlation of SPI with fire occurrences in the 1990s and 2000s and found that in the 1990s, the SPI of 3 months showed high correlation in Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Chungnam, while the SPI of 6 months showed high correlation in Chungbuk, and the SPI of 12 months showed high correlation in Gyeongnam, Gyenongbuk, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk. In the 2000s, the SPI of 6 months showed high correlation with the fire frequency in Gyeonggi, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, whereas the fire frequency in western Gangwon was highly correlated with the SPI of 3 months and, in eastern Gangwon, Gyeongnam, and Gyenongbuk, with the SPI of 1 month. In the 1990s, distinct differences in the drought condition between the SPI of 3 months and 12 months in the northern and southern regions of Korean Peninsula were found, whereas the differences in both the SPI of 1 month and 6 months were found in the Baekdudaegan region except western Gangwon since the 2000s. Therefore, this study suggests that we can develop a model to predict forest fire occurrences by applying the SPI of 1-month and 6-month data in the future.

An Impact Assessment of Climate and Landuse Change on Water Resources in the Han River (기후변화와 토지피복변화를 고려한 한강 유역의 수자원 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Hung-Soo;Jun, Hwan-Don
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.309-323
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    • 2010
  • As climate changes and abnormal climates have drawn research interest recently, many countries utilize the GCM, which is based on SRES suggested by IPCC, to obtain more accurate forecast for future climate changes. Especially, many research attempts have been made to simulate localized geographical characteristics by using RCM with the high resolution data globally. To evaluate the impacts of climate and landuse change on water resources in the Han-river basin, we carried out the procedure consisting of the CA-Markov Chain, the Multi-Regression equation using two independent variables of temperature and rainfall, the downscaling technique based on the RegCM3 RCM, and SLURP. From the CA-Markov Chain, the future landuse change is forecasted and the future NDVI is predicted by the Multi-Regression equation. Also, RegCM3 RCM 50 sets were generated by the downscaling technique based on the RegCM3 RCM provided by KMA. With them, 90 year runoff scenarios whose period is from 2001 to 2090 are simulated for the Han-river basin by SLURP. Finally, the 90-year simulated monthly runoffs are compared with the historical monthly runoffs for each dam in the basin. At Paldang dam, the runoffs in September show higher increase than the ones in August which is due to the change of rainfall pattern in future. Additionally, after exploring the impact of the climate change on the structure of water circulation, we find that water management will become more difficult by the changes in the water circulation factors such as precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, and runoff in the Han-river basin.

Meteorological Characteristics of High-Ozone Episode Days in Daegu, Korea (대구시의 고농도 오존 발생 일에 나타나는 기상학적 특성)

  • Son, Im-Young;Kim, Hee-Jong;Yoon, Ill-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.424-435
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    • 2002
  • This study analyzes the surface ozone and meteorological data in Daegu for a period from 1997 to 1999. It also investigates the meteorological characteristics of high ozone episodes. For this study the high ozone episode has been defined as a daily maximum ozone concentration higher than 100ppb in at least one station among six air quality monitoring stations in Daegu, Korea. The frequency of episodes is 13 days. The frequency is the highest in May and September. The average value of daily maximum ozone concentration is 81.6ppb, and 8-hour average ozone concentration is 58.6ppb for the high episodes. This shows that ozone pollution is continuous and wide-ranging in Daegu. The daily maximum ozone concentration is positively correlated to solar radiation and daily maximum temperature, but negatively correlated to relative humidity, wind speed and cloud amount. The maximal correlation coefficient to solar radiation is 0.45. The differences between high ozone episode day's daily mean meteorological value and monthly mean value are +1.58hPa for sea level pressure, +3.45${\circ}$C for maximum temperature, -5.69% for relative humidity, -0.46ms$^{-1}$ for wind speed, -1.79 for cloud amount, and +3.97MJm$^{-2}$ for solar radiation, respectively. This shows that strong solar radiation, low wind speed and no precipitation between 0700${\sim}$1100LST are favorite conditions for high ozone episodes. It is related to the morning stagnant condition.

Aggregate Distribution and Wind Erosion in Grass Land of the New Incheon International Airport (인천 신공항 잔디밭 조성지 토양의 입단분포 및 풍식 예측량 산정)

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Yoo, Sun-Ho;Choi, Byung-Kwon;Joo, Young-Kyoo;Bang, Jeong-Ho;Park, Chol-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.315-323
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    • 1998
  • Soil aggregate distribution and its relation to wind erosion were examined for the surface soil of the experimental plots for grasses in the New Incheon International Airport, of which soil was reclaimed with sea sands in the Youngjong Island. The soil aggregate with the size between 0.10 and 0.84mm was 74 percents. The 6 percents of the soil aggregates were non-erodible. With this aggregate distribution the wind erodiblity of the soil, I. was $380Mg\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$ with I value and climatic factor calculated for the dry period from November to May, $45.2Mg\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$ of the surface soil were estimated to be eroded. The erodible particles with 0.37mm diameter could fly to 17.8, 29.9 and 49.8 meters by saltation at wind speed of 7, 9 and $15m\;s^{-1}$, respectively. The wind erosion could be reduced by increasing vegetation coverage and applying hydrophyllic soil conditioner.

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A Study of Improving Methods for The Performance of Freeway Incident Detection Algorithm (고속도로 돌발상황검지알고리즘 성능 개선기법에 관한 연구)

  • 강수구;손봉수;도철웅;이시복
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2001
  • Incident detection rate and false alarm rate are the key measures tot estimating the performance of automatic incident detection algorithms. It is, however inherently very difficult to improve the two measures simultaneously. The main purpose of this study is to present some methods for solving the problem. For this, an incident detection algorithm has been designed in this study. The algorithm is consisted of two functions, one for detecting incident and another for detecting congestion. A logic for distinguishing non-recurrent congestion from recurrent congestion was employed in the algorithm. The new algorithm basically requires speed, flow, and occupancy data for defining incident situation, but the algorithm is able to perform this task without one of the three parameters. The performance of the algorithm has been evaluated by using the field data collected from Interstate Highway 880 in Bay Area, California. The empirical analysis results are very promising and thus, the algorithm proposed may be very useful for the analysts. This paper presents some empirical test results for the performance of California incident detection algorithm, only for the reference purpose.

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